Geopolitics and Analysis

This episode discusses the impact of China’s authoritarian system on its emergence as a great power.  Our guest, Carl Minzner, joins us to discuss his book, End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise, where he argues that China’s stagnant government system is slowly erasing the positive changes of the reform era.

Carl Minzner is a professor at the Fordham University School of Law, where he specializes in Chinese law and governance. He previously served as Senior Counsel for the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. Additionally, he was an International Affairs Fellow for the Council on Foreign Relations and a Yale-China Legal Education Fellow at the Xibei Institute of Politics.

The Erosion of China’s Reform Era: A Conversation with Carl Minzner

On June 5, 2018, Dr. Christopher D. Yung explores China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s version of the Marshall Plan, during a lecture "Who's Afraid of China's Belt and Road Initiative? Getting to the Heart of China's Controversial Marshall Plan" at The Institute of World Politics.

Who's Afraid of China's Belt and Road Initiative?

GPF Director Jacob Shapiro welcomes special guest Dario Fabbri, Senior Analyst at Limes, to talk about Italy's view of Europe. Along the way, they touch on Italy's relationship with the U.S., Germany's lack of strategy and France's double-edged demographic advantage. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Italy's View of France and Germany

This week, the head of NATO wrote a column politely reminding everyone about the use of the military alliance. Can NATO continue to meet the needs of all its members? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Is NATO Obsolete?

Kings Maritime Seminar Series 2017-2018. Helen Sellers presents on the topic of 'Australia and India at Sea: The Contemporary Security implications of Two Maritime Histories from ancient to modern times.'. The seminar took place on the 7th December 2017 in the Department of War Studies, Kings College London.

Maritime Seminars 2017-2018: Australia and India at Sea: Contemporary Security, Helen Sellers

Author John Lehman talked about his book "OCEANS VENTURED: Winning The Cold War at Sea" during a lecture on June 25, 2018, at The Institute of World Politics.

About the Book:

A thrilling story of the Cold War, told by a former navy secretary on the basis of recently declassified documents. When Ronald Reagan took office in January 1981, the United States and NATO were losing the Cold War. The USSR had superiority in conventional weapons and manpower in Europe, and had embarked on a construction program to gain naval preeminence. But Reagan already had a plan. Reagan pushed Congress to build the navy back to its 1945 strength of 600 major ships. He gathered a circle of experienced naval planners, including the author, to devise an aggressive strategy that would move our fleets within spitting distance of Soviet waters. New radars, sensors, and emissions technology would make ghosts of our submarines and surface fleets. We would operate aircraft carriers in Arctic waters, which no navy had attempted. The Soviets, surrounded by our forward naval strategy, bankrupted their economy trying to keep pace. It wasn’t long before the Berlin Wall fell and the USSR was disbanded.

About the Author:

John Lehman, a former U.S. Navy pilot, served as United States Secretary of the Navy from 1981 to 1987. From 2003 to 2004 he was a member of the 9/11 Commission. He lives in New York.

OCEANS VENTURED: Winning The Cold War at Sea

CFR Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Alyssa Ayres speaks with CFR C. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies Elizabeth Economy on her recent book, "The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State."

Podcast: Xi Jinping's Third Revolution

President Trump is visiting the UK this week in between summits with NATO and Russian President Putin. Agnes discusses the UK-US special relationship and European responses to the current President with Leslie Vinjamuri (Head of the US &amp; Americas Programme) and Hans Kundnani (Senior Research Fellow in the Europe Programme).&nbsp; Another country adapting its foreign policy approach in light of an increasingly unpredictable US is Japan. A new special issue of International Affairs explores Japan's relations with its Asian neighbours. Ben speaks to Corey Wallace, one of the issue's guest-editor's, about Japan's response to the Singapore Summit, TPP and China's role in the region.&nbsp; Read the Expert Comment:  To Engage America, Theresa May Should Recognize the Real Concerns that Trump Raises Read the International Affairs special issue:&nbsp; Japan's Pivot in Asia

Episode 12: Trump's Visit to the UK, and Japanese Foreign Policy in Asia

Is populism an ideology? Is it a political tool? A political weapon? The term has been bastardized over the years, so much so that it is nearly devoid of any meaning, and yet it is invoked nearly every day, levied against politicians of every political persuasion in every region of the world. In this week’s episode, the team digs into what it means to be populist and applies it to Mexico’s newly elected president. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

The Problem with ‘Populism’

Mr. Roy Kamphausen gave a lecture called "America’s Generational Challenge: China" at The Institute of World Politics on July 18, 2018.

About the Lecture: Roy Kamphausen will address the multi-faceted series of structural challenges that China presents to the U.S.

About the Speaker: Roy D. Kamphausen is Senior Vice President for Research at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). He provides executive leadership to NBR’s policy research agenda on security, politics, energy, economics, and trade. Mr. Kamphausen directs NBR’s engagement with the administration, U.S. Congress, and foreign embassies in Washington, D.C. and integrates the work of Admiral Jon Greenert, NBR’s Shali Chair in National Security Studies, with ongoing programs and new initiatives.

As a specialist on a range of U.S.-Asia issues, Mr. Kamphausen leads and contributes substantively to NBR’s research initiatives. He is the author, contributing author, or co-editor of numerous publications, including chapters in NBR’s Strategic Asia series; the Carlisle People’s Liberation Army Conference series and its most recent volume, The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025 (co-edited with David Lai, 2015); an NBR Special Report on innovation in India (2015); and the IP Commission’s Report on the Theft of American Intellectual Property (2013). His areas of expertise include China’s People’s Liberation Army, U.S.-China defense relations, East Asian security issues, innovation, and intellectual property protection. He has presented on these topics throughout the United States, Asia, and Europe to government and corporate decision-makers. Mr. Kamphausen is frequently cited in U.S. and international media, including CNN, the Financial Times, Foreign Policy,National Public Radio, Newsweek, and the New York Times.

Mr. Kamphausen is an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a senior adviser on East Asia for the University of Connecticut’s Office of Global Affairs. He lectures regularly at leading U.S. military institutions, including the United States Military Academy (West Point) and the U.S. Army War College. Mr. Kamphausen regularly briefs members of Congress and consults for the U.S. Department of Defense. Prior to joining NBR, Mr. Kamphausen served as a career U.S. Army officer. As a China foreign area officer, his career included assignments as China policy director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a military attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

Mr. Kamphausen holds a BA in Political Science from Wheaton College and an MA in International Affairs from Columbia University. He studied Chinese at both the Defense Language Institute and Beijing’s Capital Normal University. He is a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, the Asia Society, and the Council for Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. He is married to Arminda and they have three children—Abigail, Hudson, and Delaney.

America’s Generational Challenge: China

One of the great strains on NATO is the question of who’s paying how much for what. But that’s not a new problem. Almost as long as the alliance has been around - 69 years - there’s been arguing over the bills. Germany has been a particular target of late, with the United States calling on the economic powerhouse to pay up. Kathleen Hicks of the Center for Strategic and International Studies offers some needed perspective. You can listen to War College on <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/war-college/id1023774600?mt=2" target="_blank">iTunes</a>, <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/jason-fields/war-college" target="_blank">Stitcher</a>, <a href="https://play.google.com/music/listen#/ps/Ioueaqtuifyfrxlbf6e6ec6difm" target="_blank">Google Play</a> or follow our <a href="http://rss.acast.com/warcollege" target="_blank">RSS directly</a>. Our website is warcollegepodcast.com. You can reach us on our Facebook page: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/warcollegepodcast/" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/warcollegepodcast/</a>; and on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/War_College" target="_blank">@War_College</a>.

Why Germany Isn’t Picking Up More of NATO’s Tab

The U.S. and Turkey have a lot of big mutual problems (Iran, the Islamic State, Bashar Assad) yet seem to be preoccupied by much smaller ones (pastors and alleged deep state operatives). To help explain why this is so, this week’s episode checks in on the status of U.S.-Turkey relations. Also, what’s with the stories about Rex Tillerson preventing a Saudi invasion of Qatar? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Turkey and the US: An On-Again, Off-Again Relationship

The average refugee camp has a lifespan of 18 years, but in most cases the infrastructure in place is designed for temporary emergency responses. One area this particularly affects is energy provision, with the majority of refugees reliant on burning wood. On top of this, many humanitarian agencies are dependent upon costly and damaging diesel fuel to power their relief efforts.&nbsp; The  Moving Energy Initiative at Chatham House believes that renewable energy solutions can improve the health and quality of life of refugees while also saving money for the aid providers. Agnes speaks to Owen Grafham, who manages the initiative, to find out more.&nbsp; Also in this episode, Ben meets Richard McGregor,&nbsp;a Senior Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Affairs in Sydney, to discuss Australia's foreign policy in the midst of the Sino-US struggle for supremacy in Asia. Read the Expert Comment:  Why Access to Energy Can Empower Refugees Read more on Asian geopolitics:  Publications by Richard McGregor

Episode 14: Sustainable Energy for Refugees, and Australian Foreign Policy

About the Book: Since the end of World War II, why has the United States either lost every war it started or failed in every military intervention it prosecuted? Harlan Ullman's new book answers this most disturbing question, a question many Americans would not ask because this record of failure has been largely hidden in plain sight or forgotten with the passage of time. The most straightforward answer is that presidents and administrations have consistently failed to use sound strategic thinking and lacked sufficient knowledge or understanding of the circumstances prior to deciding whether or not to employ force. Making this case is an in-depth analysis of the records of presidents from John F. Kennedy to Barack Obama and Donald Trump in using force or starting wars. His recommended solutions begin with a "brains-based" approach to sound strategic thinking to address one of the major causes of failure--the inexperience of too many of the nation's commanders-in-chief. Ullman reinforces his argument through the use of autobiographical vignettes that provide a human dimension and insight into the reasons for failure, in some cases making public previously unknown history. The clarion call of Anatomy of Failure is that both a sound strategic framework and sufficient knowledge and understanding of the circumstance that may lead to using force are vital. Without them, failure is virtually guaranteed.

About the Author:  Harlan K. Ullman is a strategic thinker and innovator whose career spans the worlds of business and government. Chairman of several companies and an advisor to the heads of major corporations and governments, he was the principal author of "shock and awe"and inventor of a brains-based approach to strategic thinking. A graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, he served in combat assignments in Vietnam. He holds an MA, MALD, and PhD from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and lives in Washington, D.C.

Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Every War It Starts

Date of Recording: 24/09/2018

Centre for Science & Security Studies Event co-hosted with Swansea University’s International Studies, Conflict and Security Research Group

Abstract

The concept of cross-domain deterrence (CDD) emerged in the late 2000s as American defense policymakers perceived increasing threats to data networks and satellite systems, in particular from China and Russia. What, if anything, does the notion of CDD add to the venerable concept of deterrence? The Pentagon describes five warfighting domains—land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace—but any means of signaling and influence might differ from others with respect to their utility for political bargaining. CDD can be understood as the use of threats of one type, or some combination of different types, to dissuade a target from taking actions of another type that would change the status quo. CDD is not a new historical phenomenon—deterrence has always involved choices across unlike instruments—but it has become newly salient. As technological innovation expands the portfolio of options available for deterrence, trade-offs across technological means and political ends become more complex. We infer hypotheses about how different warfighting domains affect the conduct of military operations and thus, indirectly, political trade-offs in strategic bargaining. This work builds on Jon R. Lindsay and Erik Gartzke, eds., Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity (Oxford University Press, Forthcoming). 

Biography

Jon R. Lindsay is Assistant Professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. His research examines the relationship between technology and international security. His publications include China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain (Oxford University Press, 2015) with Tai Ming Cheung and Derek Reveron, and Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity (Oxford University Press, 2019) with Erik Gartzke. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an M.S. in Computer Science and B.S. in Symbolic Systems from Stanford University. He has also served in the U.S. Navy with operational assignments in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.

Event: Cross-Domain Deterrence: Politics by Many Means

GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro to give thoughts on issues ranging from new alliances in the Middle East to US-China relations. Also: how bad is the societal divide in the United States? Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Around the World with George Friedman

About the Book: In North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability, Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. analyzes relevant North Korean military capabilities, what arms the nation provides, and to whom, how it skirts its sanctions, and how North Korea's activities can best be contained. He traces illicit networks that lead to state and nonstate actors in the Middle East, including Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, and throughout Africa, including at least a dozen nations. The potential proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons technology and the vehicles that carry it, including ballistic missiles and artillery, represent a broader threat than the leadership in Pyongyang. Including training and infrastructure support, North Korea's profits may range into the billions of dollars, all concealed in illicit networks and front companies so complex that the nation struggles to track and control them. Bechtol not only presents an accurate picture of the current North Korean threat―he also outlines methodologies that Washington and the international community must embrace in order to contain it.
About the Author: Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., is an award winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. He was formerly on the faculty at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College and the Air Command and Staff College. Dr. Bechtol served as an adjunct visiting professor at the Korea University Graduate School of International Studies. He was an intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency from 1997 until 2003, eventually serving as the senior analyst for Northeast Asia in the Intelligence Directorate on the Joint Staff in the Pentagon. He formerly sat on the editorial review board of the East Asian Review and served as editor of the Defense Intelligence Journal. He is currently on the editorial advisory board of the Korea Observer, and is on the scientific board of Global Humanities. He is the current president of the International Council on Korean Studies, and serves on the board of directors of the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies. He has also authored North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma, The Last Days of Kim Jong-Il: The North Korean Threat in a Changing Era, Defiant Failed State: The North Korean Threat to International Security, and Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea. A widely sought after expert on North Korean international security issues, Dr. Bechtol has been called on to present commentary to the BBC, CNN, CBC, FOX News, Radio New Zealand, syndicated nationwide radio shows such as POTUS politics on SIRIUS/XM, the John Batchelor show, the Frank Gaffney show, and several interviews on National Public Radio.

North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa

Date of Publication: 05/10/2018

Description:

According to Jeff Colgan, Associate Prof at Brown University, ‘over the past 25 years, US foreign policy outcomes in the Middle East have gone from more or less acceptable to downright awful.’  Arguably, the most notable US foreign policy failure in the region was the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, but to this day, US success in the Middle East is further challenged by complex conflicts, including those in Afghanistan and Syria, and is also impacted by the presence of terrorist organizations within Middle Eastern states faced with instability. Due to undesirable and costly outcomes in the past, many in Washington DC have contemplated whether the US should withdraw from the Middle East. However, if the US were to withdraw, this decision could not only impact US national interests but also have security consequences for the Middle East.
 
On the 24th of September, the Department of War Studies and the Conflict, Security and Development Research Group welcomed Prof Colgan for his talk titled, Should the US Withdraw from the Middle East. But, before his talk, I met up with Prof Colgan and Dr Stacey Gutkowski, Senior Lecturer in the Dept of War Studies, for a general discussion on the headlining question posed by Prof. Colgan's talk. Let’s hear what they had to say.
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A recording of Jeff Colgan's talk at KCL will be available soon!
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This podcast was produced by Kirk Allen.

Podcast: Should the US withdraw from the Middle East?

In this episode, Olya and Jeff sit down with Sam Charap, a senior political scientist at RAND Corp and coauthor of the recent RAND report “Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia,” which explores solutions to the dilemma of mutually exclusive Russian and Western integration paths for six “in between” countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. We discuss the report’s findings and the viability of this third path to European security, as well as U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine’s future, and European security writ large.   (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette/insecurity-between-russian-roulette-episode-67)

Of Insecurity In Between â Russian Roulette Episode 67

Description: GPF Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro welcomes Dr. Andrey Sushentsov, founder and head of Eurasian Strategies, to the show to discuss US-Russia relations and what Americans and Russians don't understand about each other. Sign up for free updates on topics like this! Go here:  https://goo.gl/zt6tzx

Geopolitics and Analysis

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