Bendy Bonds Are Better (Say it Five Times Fast) 

Our guest this week is Ben Heller, one of the most insightful observers of the sovereign debt markets, and someone we often turn to for a sense of the investor’s perspective on the markets. Recently, Ben and a colleague published a proposal for so-called Bendy Bonds – state-contingent debt instruments that automatically give countries a short breathing spell in times of crisis. State-contingent debt is a favorite of many economists, but proposals for new instruments—like GDP-linked bonds—have generally gone nowhere. But there has been a great deal of interest in Bendy Bonds. We talk with Ben about the idea behind Bendy Bonds and about recent events in the markets such as the claim by some that the Pac Man and Redesignation strategies proposed by Argentina in its recent restructuring were innocent attempts to correct for flaws in the latest version of the ICMA CACs. Ben, who was on the key drafting committees for the ICMA CACs, gives us some rare and invaluable legislative history.

https://www.hbk.com/uploads/documents/Bendy-Bonds.pdf

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 35 ft. Ben Heller

Ghana’s 2030 FUD Bond

We learned a new term a few days ago: FUD. Apparently common in the crypto world, it refers to when panic about something spreads “fear, uncertainty and doubt.” An investor friend used the term to describe aspects of the Ghana 2030 bond. We had previously thought this bond was safe, since it benefits from a World Bank guarantee. But reading the contract terms more closely, the FUD has rubbed off on us. It isn't clear to us that the bond will escape the restructuring. Of course, it could be left out of the restructuring and be paid in full. But why would Ghana and holders of non-guaranteed bonds want this? If it is included in the restructuring, it could end up with the same treatment as everyone else, without getting better treatment on account of the guarantee. Time will tell. 

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 92 ft. Mitu & Mark

Pakistan's Debt Distress

Pakistan's debt distress has focused scrutiny on its debt structure, which includes lots of bilateral and official borrowing, much of it from China. The question of how to restructure Chinese lending, in relation to loan by other creditors, will be at the top of the restructuring agenda. Our guest, Reza Baqir, has both been on both sides of the table in debt workouts. He was head of the IMF’s Debt Policy division for a number of years, helping design key sovereign debt policies. He became governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in 2019 as the country faced a balance of payments crisis. He joins us to discuss lessons drawn from these experiences, how the IMF can improve, the role of China in modern debt markets, and how to improve the international debt architecture. 

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 105 ft. Reza Baqir

Hamilton Bank Redux

We have talked before about the lawsuit by Hamilton Bank against Sri Lanka, noting that Hamilton Bank is trying to avoid the effect of a restructuring. Once it gets a judgment, it will have a claim to be paid in full despite any subsequent modification of the bond. Sri Lanka seems to know this and has been raising plausible but weak legal arguments in an apparent attempt to delay the case. Now the government has outright asked the court to stay the lawsuit (though without explicitly saying what it is concerned about). We are skeptical the judge will grant an outright stay, but perhaps there is room for a little foot dragging...?

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 110 ft. Mitu & Mark

Is a Diaspora Bond a Loan or a Gift?
 
Contract law distinguishes contracts from promises to make a gift. Contracts are enforceable; gift promises are not. Theories supporting this distinction note that gift promises often are made in relational and non-market settings where reputational and other enforcement mechanisms work well, and where legal enforcement is less needed and might even be disruptive. Yet a literature in economic sociology shows a much blurrier boundary between gift and market transactions. One context in which this is so involves diaspora bonds issued by sovereign states. Dan Lainer-Vos (USC) joins us to talk about the contrasting experience of issuing diaspora bonds in Ireland and Israel, the subject of his terrific book, “Sinews of the Nation."

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 111 ft. Dan Lainer-Vos

Unpacking the Argentine GDP Warrants Case 
 
In 2005 and 2010, Argentina issued GDP-linked warrants as a sweetener to investors participating in its debt restructurings. At the time, the warrants didn’t seem so sweet. Holders assigned them little value, and most got rid of the warrants for pennies on the dollar. But in April, in a lawsuit brought by hedge funds that had bought the warrants on the cheap, an English judge ruled that Argentina had dramatically underpaid on the warrants, adding nearly 1.5 billion to the amount the country owes to foreign creditors. Our guests this episode are Tim Dodsworth, Maggie Hemsworth, and Severine Saintier, hosts of the fabulous Unpacking Contract Law podcast, who help us understand the intricacies of the case. 

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 112 ft. Timothy Dodsworth, Maggie Hemsworth & Severine Saintier

Chasing Payment on Old Cuban Debt

We have a great fondness on this podcast for unpaid historical debts and the attempts to litigate these. One such story is that of Cuban debts. Our guest is Rebecca Burton of Linklaters (London), who joins us to talk about the saga of CRF v. Banco Nacional de Cuba and the 2023 ruling out of the High Court in London. Among the key questions here was whether in fact CRF, a hedge fund that had consolidated a bunch of old Cuban debts, had in fact validly received authorization to be able to litigate against the Cuban state. 

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 113 ft. Rebecca Burton

Venezuelan Debt: The CITGO Auction, Statute of Limitations, and Other Enforcement Matters 

It’s a busy time for Venezuela’s creditors. The auction process is starting for the sale of Venezuela’s ownership interest in US-based refiner CITGO. The six year statute of limitations on bond claims is coming up, and both the Maduro government and the National Assembly are trying to head off a new wave of lawsuits by giving assurances that, if bondholders hold fire, the country won’t later raise the statute of limitations as a defense. Meanwhile, although a comprehensive debt restructuring would seem to be in everyone’s best interests, the ongoing US sanctions regime continues to make that impossible. Steven Bodzin of REDD Intelligence is one of the most incisive and knowledgeable observers of what’s going on in Venezuela. He joins us to help figure out the current state of play.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 114 ft. Steven Bodzin

Sovereign Sustainability Linked Bonds: What’s Going On?

The newest product on the sovereign scene is the sustainability linked bond. The product is potentially exciting because, on its face, it seems to remedy some of the incentive problems embedded in the more commonly used “use of proceeds” green bonds. Chile and Uruguay have issued slbs with considerable fanfare. But these are two strong issuers with robust commitments to climate change. The question we are interested in is whether these instruments are providing issuers with incentives to do more for climate change than they would otherwise do. Our guest, Ignacio Lagos, of Cleary Gottlieb, is one of the young stars of the sovereign debt field and talks to us about these deals. And since we had Ignacio with us, we seized the opportunity to also try to understand a bit more about the intriguing Hamilton Bank v. Sri Lanka case and that Registered Holder/Beneficial Owner stuff.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 115 ft. Ignacio Lagos

Are sustainability-linked bonds here to stay?

Sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) tie the issuer’s payment obligations to the satisfaction of some environmental benchmark. In principle, this could be good and provide an incentive for bond issuers to set ambitious climate-related goals. In reality, SLBs have proven a bit of a bummer. They set unambitious targets, include dodgy legal terms, and provide for only a trivial increase in payments if the issuer misses its target. Recently, ESG-focused investment also has prompted political backlash by conservative politicians. Are SLBs doomed to fail, or is there hope for them to play a meaningful role in funding a green transition? Kenza Bryan of the Financial Times has written extensively about SLBs and green finance in general and joins us to talk about the state of the market for SLBs, carbon credits, and green finance in general.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 116 ft. Kenza Bryan

Dodgy SLBs

We’ve been intrigued by the potential of sustainability-linked bonds. In theory, they should improve on green, “use of proceeds” bonds by providing incentives for issuers to invest in emissions reductions and other climate-related objectives. That’s why many in the green finance world were excited about them. But how are they working out in practice?  Priscilla Azevedo Rocha and Todd Gillespie of Bloomberg talk to us about their in-depth investigation of these creatures (with Akshat Rana). We talk about how SLBs work (or don’t work) to help ameliorate climate change, how they conducted their investigation, how we might follow up on it, and what they think the future of the future of these products is.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 117 ft. Priscila Azevedo Rocha & Todd Gillespie

China’s Impact on Sovereign Debt Restructurings

There has been much chatter (a lot of it out of Washington) about how China is mucking up the financial architecture for sovereign debt restructurings. Given the political and strategic biases of much of the chatter, it is often hard to separate out real claims from bullshit. Political scientists, Lauren Ferry and Alexandra Zeitz, in their paper, “China, the IMF, and Sovereign Debt Crises”, have dug into the question. Using both qualitative and quantitative data, they document and describe how the debt negotiation processes for distressed countries with the IMF has materially changed in the wake of China’s emergence as a major lender. In the podcast, we discuss, among other things, the general question of China’s impact on the debt restructuring processes today, the measures they use in their analyses, and what is likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 118 ft. Alexandra Zeitz & Lauren Ferry

China’s Defaulted War Debts

We’ve long viewed China’s defaulted debt from the first half of the twentieth century through the lens of the communist government refusing to pay back the defaulted debts of Imperial China. But historian Elya Zhang’s wonderful work on China’s debts documents how the story is much more complex and, in particular, how the Imperial debt is but a sliver of the Chinese sovereign borrowing that was subsequently defaulted on.  Much of it, it turns out, was war related borrowing of various types done during the 1938-49 period. And the stories underlying what happened are, as Elya tells us, are fascinating.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 119 ft. Elya Zhang

What to Make of the Stay Order in Hamilton Reserve Bank v. Sri Lanka?

Strange things have been going on in the Hamilton Reserve Bank v. Sri Lanka case in New York federal court. Recently, in response to requests from the US and other governments, the judge agreed to stay the lawsuit for 6 months before giving HRB a judgment. We have long been confused about why HRB wants a judgment so quickly, and we're no less confused now. Does HRB have a stake big enough to block a vote to modify payment terms? We have assumed it does but are now less sure. Even if HRB can block a vote on payment terms, we're wondering if Sri Lanka can use exit consents (which HRB's position is clearly too small to veto) to twist its arm into going along with a restructuring. Otherwise, why all the fuss? Clearly the judge thinks HRB creates risks to the restructuring, and the U.S. and other governments seem to agree. We try to figure out what is going on.

Producer: Leanna Doty

*The episode was updated to acknowledge an error made by Mitu & Mark during the recording of the podcast. Mitu & Mark reference Judge Preska instead of Judge Cote, who issued the stay.

Ep 120 ft. Mitu & Mark

What the FRAN?

This episode is on Argentina's famous FRANs (floating rate accrual notes). The notes were intended to protect holders against the risk that the country's credit would deteriorate... and boy did they ever. Due to a drafting glitch, or a simple failure of imagination, the FRANs wound up earning a few lucky (well, smart) investors somewhere around 100% annual interest. Argentina's unsuccessful effort to avoid paying also raised some entertaining questions of contract law. It's not common for sovereign states to raise the unconscionability defense. Ben Heller joins us to talk about the FRANs, with some bonus discussion of dodgy exit amendments.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 121 ft. Ben Heller

Argentina's 2001 Debt Saga Revisited

Argentina's 2001 default spawned nearly 15 years of litigation, culminating in the (in)famous pari passu injunction. Many episodes of the saga have been told in isolation, but it is complicated—FRANs, pari passu, Lock Law, RUFO, etc.—and, until recently, we didn't know of anything that captured it in full. Our guest, Greg Makoff, has written a forthcoming book that manages to tell the entire story clearly without sacrificing either the drama or the complexity. The book is Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring. We talk to Greg about mistakes made (many, many mistakes) in the course of Argentina's 2005 and 2010 debt restructurings and about whether lessons can be drawn for the country's current debt troubles.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 122 ft. Greg Makoff

How Much of the YPF Judgement Will Burford, Realistically, Recover?

Burford Capital, a highly sophisticated litigation finance operation, has won an enormous judgment ($16 billion, where its share is upwards of $6 billion) against the Republic of Argentina. The question is how much of this judgment Burford is realistically likely to be able to collect on. Using a recent FT Alphaville article, “Dog Catches Argentine Car” by Jay Newman as our foil, we try to break down the likelihood of Burford getting a recovery. We think a significant recovery is plausible – particularly if the new administration in Argentina decides to default and renegotiate all of the myriad claims against it once and for all.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 123 ft. Mitu & Mark

Equity Receiverships and Sovereign Debt

Observers of sovereign debt markets have long lamented the inability to impose restructuring terms on dissenting creditors. Indeed, there are currently several bills pending – some of which are utterly bonkers, in our view – in New York to change the law in ways that will limit holdout activity in sovereign debt cases. But what if the tools to comprehensively restructure sovereign debt are already there in New York law? Our guest, Nate Oman (William and Mary) has a new paper, Restructuring Ruritania (link below), examining the potential use of the equity receivership in this context. The equity receivership has a long history (e.g., railroad reorganizations) and has been discussed as a potential solution to state debt crises and other areas. We talk to Nate about what an equity receivership would look like in the sovereign debt context and the advantages (and limitations) it offers.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4656147

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 124 ft. Nate Oman

Can Someone Explain What is Happening to SLBs?

A year and a half or so ago, we were working on a paper with UVA’s Quinn Curtis on how the promises being made in the typical “use of proceeds” Green Bonds were empty. In the course of that project, we had loads of conversations with industry insiders, who largely agreed, but said that we were studying a thing of the past. The product of the future was the sustainability linked bond (slb). Unlike boring “use of proceeds” bonds, these had real incentives and were going to replace the 1st generation simplistic products. Now, at the end of 2023, we are hearing that this product is in disfavor in the markets. Why? What’s going on? Not sure we have answers – but we sure have questions and speculations.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 125 ft. Mitu & Mark

Tierra del Fuego and Tinfoil Hats

The financial press has mostly overlooked the recent debt restructuring by Argentine province Tierra del Fuego. (To be fair, Mark has overlooked it too.) But there were aspects of the deal that might strike some as a bit coercive – like an initial proposal to pay investors who consented early more than investors who took more time, and different payments ultimately made to consenting and non-consenting creditors. Why bother using such coercive tactics, when they arguably weren't needed to get the deal done? Were the tactics even coercive? Should conspiracy theorists see a broader pattern in which issuers are using coercive tactics in minor restructurings so as to create a precedent for their use in big ones? We put on our tinfoil hats and speculate.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 126 ft. Mitu & Mark

Back to the Future (Again) -- Russian Frozen Assets Episode

In recent months, there has been much talk about what to do with frozen Russian assets and, in particular, whether they can be repurposed to aid Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion.  This is not the first time that large amounts of Russian assets have been frozen though, with heated debates about whether to expropriate the frozen funds. In this podcast we talk to Professor Lauge Poulsen of UCL about one of these prior freezings, from the early 1900s. Indeed, the 1918 default of Soviet Russia on investors in Tsarist Russian bonds is still one of the largest ever sovereign defaults and it (along with other expropriations) then resulted in widespread freezing of Russian assets overseas. Lauge and his co author, Eileen Denza, have a fascinating article about the negotiations between the UK Foreign Office and the Soviets over these frozen assets and the ultimate resolution of all of the various claims and counterclaims (a process that took close to three quarters of a century). The article, “Settling Russia’s Imperial and Baltic Debts” appears in the American Journal of International Law.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 127 ft. Lauge Poulsen

Something Black in the Lentils at Ukrenegro

A few weeks ago, there was an announcement that some of the creditors of the Ukrainian electric company, Ukrenegro, wanted their debt restructuring talks to be separate from any broader Ukrainian debt restructuring. And the prices of the Ukrenegro bonds (backed by a sovereign guarantee) shot up. This intrigued us. Why did the market suddenly see new value in these bonds, simply because of an announcement? Our old friend, Chris Spink, one of the best sovereign debt reporters in the business, talks with us about what might be going on. We can't help but speculate…

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 128 ft. Chris Spink

The Last Sovereign Bond in New York

Due to litigation over the PDVSA 2020 bond, all future issues of sovereign bonds in New York have been canceled, effective immediately. (PDVSA is quasi-sovereign, but whatever...) You may have heard that New York’s highest court has ruled that investors cannot enforce sovereign bonds, period. Well, maybe that's not quite what it held – okay, not even remotely – but it is how some in the market are reacting. In fact, the New York Court of Appeals did nothing unusual. It held that Venezuelan law decides whether the collateral pledge backing the PDVSA 2020 bonds is valid but that, even if invalid, New York law will decide whether and how this affects investors. Some are complaining that this ignores the contractual choice of law provision designating New York's law as governing. But if investors are surprised, they shouldn't be, and there is nothing unique or strange about New York's conflicts law. Anyway, no one has said the bond is unsecured. No need for all the bedwetting.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 129 ft. Mitu & Mark

Who Benefits from Lifting Sanctions on Buying Venezuelan Bonds?

Banning U.S. parties from buying Venezuelan bonds was probably a bad idea. But was it a good idea to lift the ban last fall? Investors apparently sold the Biden administration on the idea that lifting the ban would yield big benefits: bonds had migrated into the hands of parties acting as proxies for U.S. adversaries like Russia. Lifting the ban would cause the bonds to migrate back to U.S. investors, giving them (and, indirectly, the U.S. government) a seat at the table when a restructuring eventually happens. That was the story, anyway. But does it make sense? Or were investors selling the Biden administration a bill of goods, advocating for a policy change that would enrich them without doing squat to change the geopolitics of Venezuelan debt? Kejal Vyas (Wall Street Journal) has covered the machinations behind the policy shift, and he enlightens us about all things Venezuela.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 130 ft. Kejal Vyas

Ukrenergo Confusion

Rumor has it that holders of bonds issued by Ukrenergo, the state-owned corporation that runs Ukraine's electricity distribution system, expect to get better treatment in a debt restructuring, even though their bonds are guaranteed by the state and at least arguably can be forced to vote alongside holders of Ukrainian sovereign bonds (whose votes could swamp those of the Ukrenergo investors). Do the documents for the Ukrenergo bonds allow this? Or is there some other explanation for why holders of the corporate bonds expect better treatment. We are ... confused. Do not expect clarity.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 131 ft. Mitu & Mark

A Way to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Help Ukraine?

There has been much chatter lately about a proposal from Lee Buchheit, Daleep Singh and Hugo Dixon to address concerns in Western nations about using frozen Russian assets to get Ukraine much needed war financing. One might ask why these nations are so concerned about confiscating Russian assets when they have already frozen the assets, seemingly in perpetuity. But apparently, the difference matters quite a lot. Our guests, Ingrid Brunk and Paul Stephan, are two of the most thoughtful and careful thinkers about international law and they help us understand the virtues and pitfalls of this new, and very creative, proposal.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 132 ft. Ingrid Brunk & Paul Stephan

Lessons from the 1980s Debt Crisis

The 1980s debt crisis began in Mexico and engulfed countries around the world, leading, via the Brady Plan, to the revival of the bond markets. Beyond that, we confess to relatively little knowledge about this fundamental episode in sovereign debt history. For so many of the leading lights of the contemporary sovereign debt world, the Latin American debt crisis was where they cut their teeth. The lessons they took from that era shaped the choices they made over the succeeding decades. Our guest is Jerome Sgard (SciencePo), who joins us to talk about his book, The Debt Crisis of the 1980s, which taps into new archival material and draws on interviews with many of the key participants. We ask Jerome about this key decade in the evolution of the modern sovereign debt architecture.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 133 ft. Jerome Sgard

The Latest in the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga: Drafting Goof or Sneaky Drafting?

There are so many intriguing aspects of the latest installment of the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga. This time, from Judge Preska in the SDNY, Argentina scores a big, and for us, totally unexpected victory. Argentina’s lawyers, at a very late stage, discovered a magic bullet that no one seems to have realized was there. Mark doesn’t like to use the term “contractual landmine”, but he does here. Mitu applauds.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 134 ft. Mitu & Mark

El Salvador’s Warrants: Bukele’s Folly?

El Salvador has issued a new bond, using part of the proceeds to buy back some bonds that mature in the relatively near term. The issuance includes a detachable warrant that pays up to an additional 4% if El Salvador does not get an IMF program in place soon (or achieve a higher credit rating). The issuance has been characterized as a way to convince investors that El Salvador really is serious about striking an IMF deal. But the whole thing strikes us as loony tunes. Which is it? We ask EM guru Ben Heller.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 135 ft. Ben Heller

Venezuela’s Oil Company is Up For Grabs – and the Absence of Ten Words in its Governing Law Clause May Decide Who Gets it

The governing law clause is perhaps the most basic provision in every contract. Yet, it is so routine that few pay attention to it.  Failure to pay attention to its precise wording though can bite one in the backside as the ongoing litigation between investors in Venezuelan bonds and the government-in-exile of that country demonstrates.  Mark and Mitu discuss the Venezuelan governing law clause drama, as well as a number of other similar situations that have cropped up in recent years, including with Ukraine, Puerto Rico, and Mozambique.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 1 ft. Mark Weidemaier

Clauses and Controversies: A Podcast about International Finance, Contract Clauses and the Controversies Surrounding These Clauses

Clauses & Controversies

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