CLV Defined

CAC: Keeping It on Track

Churnin’ early, many drift away
Survivors are stronger, the loyal stay
Hidden differences we can’t observe
Let survivors thrive—it's what they deserve

Some hold tight, while the rest move on,
Loyal hearts beat to a different song.

Everyone’s got their own churn vibe
Retention climbs when the weak subside
Don’t treat ’em all as if they’re the same
That’s the secret to the retention game

The Retention Game

CBCV renaissance

Rocking the CBCV

A/B Test Anthem

A/B Test Anthem remix

A/B Test Anthem remix 2

It’s more than just a product on the shelf—
We’re building a relationship to last a lifetime…

I used to chase market share
Measuring success is simply selling hardware
But times have changed, it’s plain to see
Customer Centricity is about your needs

They said, “Just build it, they will come”
But loyalty slipped away for some
We learned the cost of letting churn go high
If you’re not satisfied, those sales will run dry

It’s not just the product line,
Your loyalty is how we shine,
We won’t chase a one-time store,
’Cause trust means so much more.
We measure retention, day by day,
Reading the signs in all you say,
Short sightedness doesn’t see us through,
We invest in your value—it’s all about you

We measure CLV for every tune
Customer Centricity keeps you in bloom
We nurture deeper ties, so synergy thrives
With every beat, your worth comes alive

Lifetime value on my mind, can’t let our bond just fade
We count retention, every mention—real connections made

It’s not just the product line,
Your loyalty is how we shine,
We won’t chase a one-time store,
’Cause trust means so much more.
We measure retention, day by day,
Reading the signs in all you say,
Short sightedness doesn’t see us through,
We invest in your value—it’s all about you

We’ll keep that promise strong, all the way through
Our focus stays on you—on you…

All about you (Ode to Customer Centricity)

All about you remix (Ode to Customer Centricity)

A shadow enters through the door,
Value lurking, something more.
But every acquisition has a cost.
Ignore that CAC and you have lost.

Oh, measure not just what they spend,
But profits that their presence lends.
Past, present, future combined,
Is how CLV should be defined.

Time's currency, a fleeting thing,
Discount the future's offering.
For money's worth today is more,
Than promises of what's in store.

Oh, measure not just what they spend,
But profits that their presence lends.
Past, present, future combined,
Is how CLV should be defined.

Standards set, a common ground,
In metrics where respect is found.
Agreed upon by one and all,
So the CLV metric stands tall.

Oh, measure not just what they spend,
But profits that their presence lends.
Past, present, future combined,
Is how CLV should be defined.

The Value of a Lifetime (CLV via Cabaret)


In a quiet room, the shadows fall,
We gather customers, hoping they’ll call.
Not every heart’s the same, some slip away too soon,
So we study how they linger, from dawn ‘til rising moon.

Some folks are born to stay, some fade without a sign,
We measure each tomorrow, to forecast over time.
Don’t tell just one story, or you’re being a goof,
But two segments and Beta reveal a hidden truth.

Heterogeneity, the soul behind our charts,
Their different lives and choices show where loyalty starts.

Some churn fast and vanish, some quietly linger on,
The curve starts sharp and drops, then settles before long.
Invisible differences shape the path each customer weaves,
We model these hidden stories so the future won’t deceive.
Don’t discount those who linger once the early wave has rolled,
Embrace their latent loyalty – that’s how true retention’s told.

So come to the table, dear customer,
Your lifetime is more than just a guess.
A Beta-Geometric can show your staying power,
We’ll keep refining – the Weibull's next.

And if your path diverges, your story’s not undone;
We glean tomorrow’s insight from each goodbye under the sun.

Stay Awhile (Retention)

[Verse 1]
I’m watchin’ that transaction flow—
One day they’re here, the next day, who knows?
No monthly dues, no easy unsubscribe,
Just a lull in the action to test your vibe.

[Pre-Chorus]
They might be takin’ a break,
But not fully gone,
They might spark back up
When the moment’s on.
Gotta read those patterns, don’t label ’em done—
That’s what makes the non-subscription world so much fun.

[Chorus]
Oh, watch the transaction flow,
Recency’s the star of the show.
We can’t see churn like a neat contract burn,
But we sense the silence—wonder if they’ll return.
Oh, watch the transaction flow,
With non-sub firms, that’s all we know.

[Bridge]
Uber’s busy city rides,
Lyft’s bright pink sign,
Amazon clicks from dawn ’til nighttime.
Which ones are snorin’, who’s just takin’ five?
RF data, BTYD —they show us P(Alive).

[Chorus]
Oh, watch the transaction flow,
Recency’s the star of the show.
We can’t see churn like a neat contract burn,
But we sense the silence—wonder if they’ll return.
Oh, watch the transaction flow,
With non-sub firms, that’s all we know.

[Outro]
The non-subscription dance has a proud tradition
Of spinning through the data to sniff out latent attrition.

Watch the Transaction Flow (NS buying)

Selecta! Advanced uplift modeling!
Let's talk about finding the true treatment effect!

When ya need to find that treatment effect, yeah
S-Learner, T-Learner dem just basic steps
But if ya want precision that's direct
Advanced uplift models are what we select, yeah

Causal Forest Riddim, capturing non-linear relation
X-Learner stepping in when groups have imbalanced foundation
R-Learner optimizing with residualization
Advanced models bring the best lift estimation

Variable importance tells the story
Which features drive effects with all their glory
Causal Forest giving confidence bands
Helping target the most responsive lands

When data is complex (complex!)
Causal Forest connects (connects!)
With high-dimensional features (features!)
Finding all effects (effects!)

Treatment effect heterogeneity
X-Learner handles with serenity
R-Learner with efficient property
These advanced models bring clarity

Choose your method right! Advanced uplift modeling!

Causal Forest Riddim

Customer-centric engine roars, we floor it off the line,
“Not all customers created equal!”—fuel that’s superfine.

Quick stop: CLV pit crew screws the discount factor tight,
CAC tires balanced, margins checked, CLV(ehicle) tuned just right.

Dashboards beam our CBA, retention curves in sight,
Subscription engines purr along, non-sub riders hug the right.

CBCV on the jumbotron—investors leap and cheer,
Customer flows trump shortcut ratios; future revenue’s clear.

A/B turbo, Teleko case, uplift wins the day,
Sleeping dogs stay in the pits while persuadables go play.

Three pillars hold the trophy high—culture, model, and action,
The wheels keep rollin’ with spectacular traction.

Professor McCarthy raises champagne, gratitude on track.
This lap may be done, but more to come—stay linked, we’ll circle back!

CLV Victory Lap (Course Wrapup)

(Signed—)           (Modeled!)
(Delivered—)        (C-L-V!)

Feature wars grow crowded,
old advantage fades away;
Lifetime value now guides us,
we’re spending smart today.
Heterogeneous nuggets sparkle
in the customer clay;
Buyer orientation turns those
nuggets into pay.

Run that CBA dashboard,
KPIs all in view;
Past before prediction—
see what history can do.
Cohorts trace the revenue,
churn and CAC in frame;
Auditable foundations prime
the future game.

Every member flips a death coin—
some heads, some tails away;
Retention swooshes downward,
then flattens out to stay.
The Weibull Gamma tracks the curve,
high-fit, lean and tight;
Predicts tomorrow’s spend before
it vanishes from sight.

Signed, modeled, delivered—C-L-V! (yes indeed!)
Projecting buyer behavior, measuring equity.
Signed, modeled, delivered—C-L-V!
Forecasts humming happy, perfect prophecy.

A-B test at Teleko—uplift steals the show;
Persuadables step forward while
sleepy dogs stay low.
Treatment tops the control group,
ROI in lights;
Micro-target magic sparks
the marketing nights.

CBCV on the marquee—
Wall Street starts to shout;
Customer flows trump shortcut ratios,
fair value called right out.
Unit-econ engine humming,
CAC constraints held tight;
Shareholder value growth
shining through the Motown night.

Collect—Measure—Model—Act,
horns punch every word;
Flywheel keeps on spinning—
sweetest soul you’ve ever heard.

Signed, modeled, delivered—C-L-V!
(Projecting buyer behavior, measuring equity!)
Signed, modeled, delivered—C-L-V!
(Forecasts humming happy, perfect prophecy!)

Professor McCarthy lifts a toast,
gratitude on track.
Class may end today,
but my door is open—come back!


danielmc999

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