Lead time: How Germany should move on from Merkel | China Policy

Welcome to ECFR’s special limited podcast series, in which we bring you the most pressing items on Germany’s foreign policy to-do list for its new government!
Episode 2 – China Policy 
In our second episode, we'll discuss Germany’s approach to China. It has become clear that even if Germans remain interested in defending the status quo of the Merkel years, it will be increasingly hard to maintain their current level of prosperity – and security – without charting a new course on China. Policy adjustments will, therefore, be necessary. And it seems like if the Green party is part of a new government, Germany is also likely to be ready to chart a new course. But how should the next German government concretely shape its China policy, and its approach to the Indo-Pacific?
Read about the issue in the recent commentary by Janka Oertel: https://ecfr.eu/article/the-china-factor-in-the-german-election/

Lead time: How Germany should move on from Merkel | China Policy

The Russian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine in its sermons, sending priests to the front, and collecting humanitarian aid for soldiers and the occupied Ukrainian territories. It is also involved in the administration of the occupied territories and in promoting propaganda narratives abroad. So why did the head of the Church, Patriarch Kirill, bet on Putin? How influential is the Church in Russian politics and society? What will happen to it after the war and will it survive Putin's regime? 

ECFR’s new podcast on Russia, “Under the Overcoat”, will explore the deeper trends beneath the surface of daily politics. To dive deeper into the role of the Russian Orthodox Church, our host Kadri Liik is joined by ECFR visiting fellow Ksenia Luchenko and Alexander Agadjanian, a senior research fellow at Yerevan State University.  

Bookshelf: 

Daniel Stein, Interpreter: A Novel | Ludmila Ulitskaya 
La Sainte Russie contre l’Occident 

Everyday Religiosity and the Politics of Belonging in Ukraine | Catherine Wanner  

Understanding World Christianity: Russia | Alexander S. Agadjanian (Author), Scott M. Kenworthy

Under the overcoat: God save the Tsar

How do Russian officials "coexist"  with the war nearly two years after the invasion? How has the bureaucratic system adapted to the requirements of the war? Do officials who openly endorse the invasion or are deployed to work in occupied territories receive better roles or resources ? Does the relative efficiency of the Russian bureaucracy boost the Kremlin’s capacity to sustain the conflict?

ECFR’s new podcast on Russia, “Under the Overcoat”, will explore the deeper trends beneath the surface of daily politics. To investigate the role of Russian bureaucrats, our host Kadri Liik is joined by ECFR visiting fellow Mikhail Komin and Russian political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann. 

Bookshelf: 
Legislation as a Political Process and Practical Political Science: A Guide to Contact with Reality
Nomenklatura by Voslenskiy

Under the overcoat: the death of a clerk

Second only to the United States, the Gulf countries have emerged as key players in the Israel-Hamas war. Qatar has been a crucial go-between in negotiating the recent hostage return and seven-day ceasefire, but has also come under fire for its chummy relationship with Hamas. The United Arab Emirates, for its part, has maintained a studious neutrality and appears more keen on preserving economic ties with Israel than getting pulled into the conflict. And as the region’s biggest player, Saudi Arabia could still play a decisive role in bringing Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table after the war ends (at least the Biden administration hopes so). What is at stake for the Gulf? And is there a constructive role for the region’s countries to play as Israel continues its fight against Hamas amid mounting international criticism?

In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes ECFR visiting fellow, Cinzia Bianco, and senior policy fellow, Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
This podcast was recorded during the Doha Forum on 8 December 2023.

Bookshelf:

Emperor of Rome: Ruling the Ancient Roman World | Mary Beard 
Seeking Stability Amidst Disorder: The Foreign Policies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, 2010-20 | Tobias Borck

The role of the Persian Gulf in the war in Gaza

The fourth episode of ECFR’s WOMENP mini-series, recorded during the 2023 Doha Forum, looks at the regional reverberations of the war in Gaza, particularly from the perspective of key Arab Gulf monarchies such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The podcast unpacks how these countries have reacted to the 7 October attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza, the prospects of ongoing normalisation deals and negotiations between Arab Gulf monarchies and Israel, domestic dynamics in these countries, and potential future scenarios. How is Qatar managing the new cycle of violence in Israel and Palestine, and what role has it played? How have different Gulf countries positioned themselves on the war in Gaza? What is the state of Saudi-Israeli negotiations following the 7 October attacks?

In this episode, ECFR’s Cinzia Bianco speaks to Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum and lecturer at Georgetown University and Elham Fakhro, associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House.
This podcast was recorded on 11 December 2023.

Beyond Gaza: focus on regional and global players

Going into the holiday season, the mood among Ukraine’s supporters far from festive. It is difficult to escape a sense that general war fatigue is kicking in, as Europeans bicker over military aid, dysfunction paralyses the US Congress, and the war in Gaza continues to hog the world’s attention. What is more, the frontiers of the Ukraine war have barely budged since last year.

In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia programme, and Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at ECFR. What is the current state of the war? Whatever happened to Ukraine’s much-heralded counteroffensive? And what steps can the West take to help Ukraine prepare for what 2024 might have in store?

This episode was recorded on 4 December, 2023

Bookshelf:

The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida by Shehan Karunatilaka

Before the West. The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol

Understanding the current military situation in Ukraine

This month, ECFR’s Africa Forum brought together African and European policymakers and thinkers for discussions on the two continents’ strategic partnerships in the changing global order. 

In this new episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes the head of ECFR’s Africa programme, Theo Murphy. They are joined by ECFR visiting fellow, Adebayo Olukoshi, who is a distinguished research professor at the Witts School of Governance in South Africa; and Brian Kagoro, managing director of programmes at the Open Society Foundations. How do Africans view Europe and the EU’s role in the world? What steps can Europeans take to improve their relationships in Africa? Which powers are competing with Europeans for attention in Africa? And what is the EU’s unique selling proposition?

This episode was recorded on 12 December, 2023.

Bookshelf:

Keepers of the Flame: Understanding Amnesty International
The First Black Slave Society: Britain’s “Barbarity Time” in Barbados, 1636-1876 | Hilary McD. Beckles

Africa and the changing global order

Change is inevitable, and so is our beloved predictions episode. 

As always, Mark Leonard and ECFR’s research director Jeremy Shapiro start the year off by revisiting the ten predictions they made last year and then look into their crystal ball at the forces that will shape the upcoming one. Their predictions for 2023 left them with a score of 7/10. Will they do better this year? Let us know if you think they missed something! You can write your own predictions to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu. 

This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2024

Ten foreign policy predictions for 2024

Every year, the International Rescue Committee publishes an emergency watchlist, an assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of humanitarian emergency. According to the IRC’s report for 2024, the scope of this year’s challenges is broad: Gaza and the West Bank rank only second on the watchlist, behind Sudan. And Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan don’t even make the top ten. 

In this week’s podcast, recorded at the World Economic Forum in snowy Davos, Mark Leonard welcomes David Miliband, former British foreign secretary, now president and CEO of the IRC and an ECFR council member, to discuss the organisation’s priorities for 2024. How can Europe address this year’s crises? What will happen if we do not act?

This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2024. 

Bookshelf:

Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things | Adam Grant
Wavewalker: Breaking Free | Suzanne Heywood

Live from Davos: The 2024 emergency watchlist

Short interviews and comments by our experts and others on breaking news and key topics from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) - the first pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, our objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate across Europe on the development of coherent and effective European values-based foreign policy.

Listen also to Mark Leonard's The World in 30 Minutes, our weekly series in which we explore the big issues in foreign policy: https://soundcloud.com/ecfr

Lead time: How Germany should move on from Merkel | China Policy

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