A total of 19 state and union seats across Myanmar will go to the polls on Saturday, voting in replacements for MPs appointed to the ministry or in seats that did not vote in the 2015 elections. Will there be any surprises on the weekend, and what will the result mean for Myanmar's young NLD government?

Frontier chief-of-staff Oliver Slow and senior political reporter Mratt Kyaw Thu speak with Soe Myint Aung, an analyst at the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies, in the first of Frontier's regular podcast series.

Myanmar heads back to the polls

In 2012, a year after Myanmar began its highly-feted transition from military rule into a fledgling democracy, Rakhine State was plunged into months of unspeakable violence. Hundreds were killed, and more than 100,000 others remain displaced and unable to return home. On the ground, the situation seems as tense, as miserable and as hopeless as at any time in the years since.

"We never thought we would stay here so long. I thought the government would help bring us back to Sittwe. I hope that one day I will be able to go home." - Arfa Begum, a resident of Thet Kay Pin IDP camp

This is the first episode in a four-part series examining the present situation in Rakhine, five years on from the events that set the state ablaze. 

This podcast was produced by Victoria Milko, with reporting by Oliver Slow and Su Myat Mon.

Five years of misery in Rakhine State: 'This didn't have to happen'

When the violence first began in Rakhine State in 2012, around 140,000 people, mainly Rohingya, were moved to internally displaced persons camps. They believed they would be home in a matter of months, but more than five years later the vast majority remain there - without access to education, healthcare, or livelihoods. Tensions within Rakhine between the two communities have only escalated, with many seeing little hope for reconciliation.

"Even though I have Muslim friends living in the camps, I don't think there is enough trust for the two communities to live side by side again." - U Maung Shwe Aye, shop owner in Sittwe market for 16 years

This podcast was produced by Victoria Milko, with reporting by Oliver Slow and Su Myat Mon.

Five years of misery in Rakhine State: No hope in sight

In October 2016, militants from the Arakan Rohingya Solidarity Army launched coordinated attacks on police outposts in northern Rakhine State, killing about a dozen officers and leading to a “security clearance” operation that came with accusations of human rights abuses.

ARSA launched similar, but larger attacks last week, leaving at least 100 dead and thousands more from all communities fleeing for their lives. Since the latest attacks, tensions have reached fever pitch.

“As the state government, we are trying to bring peace and stability to the state. To implement that, sometimes we need to provide the security forces and conduct a security operation in northern Rakhine. So in implementing that, it might have happened that some minor accidents have happened in that area. But the international community is hair splitting; they are spreading the wrong information to the community,” U Nyi Pu, Rakhine State Chief Minister.

This episode examines the precarious situation in northern Rakhine State at a time of heightened tensions.

This podcast was  produced by Victoria Milko, with reporting by Oliver Slow and Su Myat Mon.

Five years of misery in Rakhine State: A dark new chapter

In the fourth and final episode of this series, we look further into the August attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and analyse what measures need to be taken to bring an end to years of conflict.

"Many focus on the restrictions of the Muslim community, but if I could highlight one area, it is that the government should ensure rule of law in the state. So whoever commits an act against the law should be charged accordingly, whether they are Rakhine or Muslim. I think that would help to control further violence and conflict in the area. " - Rakhine interfaith community leader

Five years of misery in Rakhine State: 'The stakes have never been higher'

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