China conference call March 2016 – The shifting habits of outbound tourists

LatAm Principal Richard House discusses how the contrasting fortunes of Argentina and Brazil are affecting investor strategies. While newly rehabilitated Argentina is attracting eager investors to its massive new bond offering (and its stock market), Brazil is in political and economic turmoil. Nevertheless, this has not deterred foreign investors who are pouring in enough money to push up the São Paulo stock market 19%, even as local investors withdraw funds. Why do Brazilians and foreigners see things so differently?

Differing risk perceptions split investor community

The signs of stabilisation in China's economy seen in our China Business Activity Index have been confirmed by other data. In our podcast, Richard Wells hosts a discussion with Rafael Halpin, our Head of Research, about what is driving this recovery. 

China – Signs of stabilisation

In this month’s conference call our LatAm Principal Richard House and LatAm Researcher Lucinda Elliott discuss: 

• Argentina’s expected emergence as the year’s largest issuer of sovereign bonds.
• Brazil’s political turbulence – and a rush by foreign investors to capture the upside of any regime change. 
• Our quarterly consumer survey, which found that sentiment across the region remains sombre – with the exception of ebullient Argentina.
• FTCR’s inaugural look at Bolivia, focusing on how it will fare in the run-up to the end of Evo Morales’ presidency in 2019.

LatAm conference call April 2016 – Risk is in the eye of the beholder

In this month’s conference call, our Asean Principal Liz Chong and researchers Hafiz Noor Shams and Felipe Salvosa discuss:

• The aggressive search for yield among Malaysia’s state investment funds, which are under political pressure to maintain high dividends.
• Our analysis of the candidates in the presidential race and what their policies mean for the economy and President Aquino’s legacy.
• The challenges foreign investors face in the Philippines, as highlighted by the recent collapse of San Miguel’s planned telecoms joint venture with Australia’s Telstra.

Asean conference call April 2016 – Assessing political risk in the Philippines

China’s non-performing loans may be multiplying, but so are the methods banks are using to avoid recognising them, sometimes with official sanction. This may keep China’s bad loan problem in check in 2016 but it is also storing up yet more problems for the future.

In this month’s China conference call,  David Wilder, China Principal, talks to Xiao Qi, our Chief Economist, about the latest developments in the Chinese banking system, and what these tell us about the government’s reform intentions.

China conference call April 2016 – The NPL shell game

Our travel survey found that plunging local currencies are driving Latin American tourists to visit neighbouring countries, rather than the costlier US or Europe. At long last regional travellers are getting to know their neighbouring countries – though the fact that few of them plan to visit the Rio Olympics in August is giving the organisers major headaches.

In this month’s conference call our LatAm Principal Richard House and LatAm Researcher Cecilia Lanata Briones discuss:

• Argentina’s triumphant emergence as the year’s largest issuer of sovereign bonds after a successful April offering – with investors clamouring for more.
• Brazil’s ongoing political turbulence, exacerbated by impeachment proceedings for president Dilma Rousseff.

LatAm conference call May 2016 – Meet the neighbours

Rodrigo Duterte has triumphed in the Philippines Presidential election, but there is great uncertainty about his policy agenda and what he will do to spur economic growth. His advisers have indicated that they may replace the bid process for public-private partnerships with an appointed committee, to the dismay of bidders.

In this month’s conference call, Liz Chong, Asean Principal, talks to Felipe Salvosa, our Philippines researcher, about these latest developments and what they mean for the country’s economic outlook.

Asean conference call May 2016 – Murky outlook for the Philippines?

The Chinese economy is not just about overcapacity, debt and stalled reform progress. Mobile internet access is having a massive impact on consumption trends, and the government is hoping that industries emerging around these trends will provide support to the economy as traditional growth drivers slow.

In this month’s China conference call David Wilder, China Principal, talks to Duan Yan, our Director of Consumer Research, about how the rise of mobile data is affecting Chinese consumption, from banking to watching football.

China conference call May 2016 – On the go: consumers and the rise of mobile data

Richard Wells explains what our monthly survey of developers says about the real estate market's mood and how the sector will continue to lend crucial support to the economy through the end of the year. 

Real estate and China's economic stabilisation

FT Confidential Research is an independent research service from the Financial Times providing regular analysis and statistical insight into emerging markets. Our research is often cited by leading economists and market experts. Our clients include global investors, fund managers, consultants and central banks.