How can scenario planning and stories help leaders to think about the future, plan for it, and invest to mitigate risk? In this episode Jonathan and DJ talk with Jesse Goldhammer, Managing Director of Deloitte’s West Coast Cybersecurity practice and one of the world’s leading scenario thinkers, about the role of scenarios and futures thinking in cybersecurity and national security planning. Scenario planning began as a practice in the 1970s with Royal Dutch Shell following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) crisis that caught oil companies off-guard. After the market was disrupted, Shell began to invest in scenarios to get ahead of future risks -- and companies and governments have adopted the practice ever since, using scenarios to think about everything from technology adoption to cybersecurity to the future of work to the nature of warfare. 

Additional Reading

Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Crown Business Report, 1996, https://www.amazon.com/Art-Long-View-Planning-Uncertain/dp/0385267320

Jesse Goldhammer, The Headless Republic: Sacrificial Violence in Modern French Thought, Cornell University Press, 2005, http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100618060

UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity, Cybersecurity Futures 2025, spring, 2019, https://cltc.berkeley.edu/scenarios2025/

#3: Projection - Jesse Goldhammer

How do organizations make time for strategy in a world of risk? In this episode Jonathan and DJ talk about the importance of building “strategic habits” in work and life, building on their years of public service and non-profit leadership. Jonathan introduces listeners to the concept of the “three-day effect,” an idea developed by the psychologist David Strayer and popularized by the writer Florence Williams, about how extended time in outdoors and away from your devices can help individuals to focus on their strategic goals – and come back more invigorated. Then D.J. and Jonathan talk about the nature of strategic habit for individual and organizational planning, reflecting on DJ’s combat service and over 21 years in the U.S. Army and Jonathan’s time advising leaders in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and running strategic initiatives across the Pentagon and with the White House. 


Additional Reading

Robert Kabacoff, “Develop strategic thinkers throughout your organization,” Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2014/02/develop-strategic-thinkers-throughout-your-organization

Stephen Bungay, “How to make the most of your company’s strategy,” Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2011/01/how-to-make-the-most-of-your-companys-strategy

On how to build habits, for strategy and for life:  
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/02/13/the-science-behind-adopting-new-habits-and-making-them-stick/#7941706143c7

On the three-day effect of being in nature and the importance of unplugging: 
Florence Williams, “This is your brain on nature,” National Geographic, 2016  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2016/01/call-to-wild/

#2: Transition - D.J. Skelton

How and why do humans take action against short-term threats, like terrorism, but struggle to respond when threats are more abstract, like climate change or cybersecurity? In this episode Jonathan heads to New York City and talks to Jason Healey, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, about how humanity has responded to climate change and cyber threats. Jonathan and Brandon Kirk Williams, a researcher at Illumio, open by introducing the thinking of Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on cognition. Jay then offers proposals for cybersecurity risk management, drawing from his experience in the White House and working on global risk management at Goldman Sachs.

Additional Reading

Daniel Gilbert on short-term vs. long-term threats 
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5530483
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2006-jul-02-op-gilbert2-story.html

Jason Healey, A Fierce Domain: Conflict in Cyberspace, 1986-2012.
https://www.amazon.com/Fierce-Domain-Conflict-Cyberspace-1986/dp/098932740X
 
Jason Healey and Rob Knake, Zero Botnets: Building a Global Effort to Clean up the Internet, Council on Foreign Relations, https://cfrd8-files.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/CSR83_HealeyKnake_Botnets_0.pdf

#1: Cognition - Jason Healey

Welcome to Beyond the Breach. A new series about how individuals and organizations manage change – with a focus on technology’s impact on humanity and the nature of cybersecurity risk.

The show is hosted by Jonathan Reiber, a writer and security strategist who served as a Speechwriter and Chief Strategy Officer for Cyber Policy in the Obama Defense Department, and co-hosted by D.J. Skelton, a combat veteran, retired Army officer, founder of Paradox Sports, and outdoorsman.

In each episode we explore lessons from public service and the past to inform the leadership and management challenges of our digital present. We also talk about life in the outdoors -- the trips we and our guests have made into the wilderness, the places we've walked and seen, and the trips we will take in the future. Our goal: help humanity to adapt and flourish in the digital age.

In each episode we interview leaders to learn about their journeys and how they’ve helped society manage cybersecurity risk. We draw on our experience helping to run large bureaucracies and forming policy, leading men and women on the battlefield, and on the leadership lessons we’ve learned in the public and private sector. Stories are important to us. What are the stories you've learned about managing security, for yourself and your organizations? We want to hear them.

Substantively, our first season looks at change management through a series of nine analytic frames. In our first episode, “cognition” we explore the psychological reasons for why humanity responds to short-term threats like terrorism but struggles to respond to longer-term threats like climate change and cybersecurity. Jonathan interviews Jason Healey at Columbia’s School of Public and International Affairs about steps we all can take in the future. In “transition” DJ and Jonathan talk about the role of the outdoors in helping leaders manage change and reset their thinking, and the importance of building a “strategic habit” for managing risk and building teams.

In “projection” we interview Jesse Goldhammer about the role of scenario planning and long-term strategic thinking in operational planning. In “narration” Jen Easterly speaks with us about the power of storytelling in helping society adapt to cybersecurity risks. For “proliferation” we speak with Richard Danzig and Kara Frederick about the growth of emerging technologies and weapons proliferation on the world stage and the risks cyberspace technologies post to liberal democracies and what to do about it. Future episodes this season will focus on regulation and risk, the foundation of America’s emergency services for cybersecurity crisis response, the precondition of trust in complex cybersecurity operations, and the necessity of execution skills for leadership.

Addressing major technological change is not easy – we need to build institutions, laws, and safety measures to prevent risk. But that’s what we’re about.

You will definitely learn things. But above all, we want this show to delight you. Our encounter with technology is a story of creativity, optimism, and resilience. So give us a listen. Let us know what you think; send us your stories. You can follow us on twitter @jonathanreiber @dj_skelton, LinkedIn, and Instagram @jonathanlkreiber @dj_skelton77.

The show is brought to you by Illumio, which delivers adaptive security for every computing environment, protecting the 80 percent of data center and cloud traffic missed by the perimeter. The company’s Adaptive Security Platform™ visualizes application traffic and delivers continuous, scalable, and dynamic policy and enforcement to every bare-metal server, VM, container, and VDI within data centers and public clouds. Using Illumio, enterprises such as Morgan Stanley, Salesforce, and Creative Artists Agency have achieved secure application and cloud migration, environmental segmentation, compliance, and high-value application protection. For more information, visit www.illumio.com

Trailer: Beyond The Breach

Welcome to Beyond the Breach. A new series about how individuals and organizations manage change – with a focus on technology’s impact on humanity and the nature of cybersecurity risk. 
*
The show is hosted by Jonathan Reiber, a writer and security strategist who served as a Speechwriter and Chief Strategy Officer for Cyber Policy in the Obama Defense Department, and co-hosted by D.J. Skelton, a combat veteran, retired Army officer, founder of Paradox Sports, and outdoorsman. 
*
In each episode we explore lessons from public service and the past to inform the leadership and management challenges of our digital present. We also talk about life in the outdoors -- the trips we and our guests have made into the wilderness, the places we've walked and seen, and the trips we will take in the future. Our goal: help humanity to adapt and flourish in the digital age.
*
In each episode we interview leaders to learn about their journeys and how they’ve helped society manage cybersecurity risk. We draw on our experience helping to run large bureaucracies and forming policy, leading men and women on the battlefield, and on the leadership lessons we’ve learned in the public and private sector. Stories are important to us. What are the stories you've learned about managing security, for yourself and your organizations? We want to hear them. 
*
Substantively, our first season looks at change management through a series of nine analytic frames. In our first episode, “cognition” we explore the psychological reasons for why humanity responds to short-term threats like terrorism but struggles to respond to longer-term threats like climate change and cybersecurity. Jonathan interviews Jason Healey at Columbia’s School of Public and International Affairs about steps we all can take in the future. In “transition” DJ and Jonathan talk about the role of the outdoors in helping leaders manage change and reset their thinking, and the importance of building a “strategic habit” for managing risk and building teams. 
*
In “projection” we interview Jesse Goldhammer about the role of scenario planning and long-term strategic thinking in operational planning. In “narration” Jen Easterly speaks with us about the power of storytelling in helping society adapt to cybersecurity risks. For “proliferation” we speak with Richard Danzig and Kara Frederick about the growth of emerging technologies and weapons proliferation on the world stage and the risks cyberspace technologies post to liberal democracies and what to do about it. Future episodes this season will focus on regulation and risk, the foundation of America’s emergency services for cybersecurity crisis response, the precondition of trust in complex cybersecurity operations, and the necessity of execution skills for leadership.
*
Addressing major technological change is not easy – we need to build institutions, laws, and safety measures to prevent risk. But that’s what we’re about. 
*
Our encounter with technology is a story of creativity, optimism, and resilience. Give us a listen. Let us know what you think.  You can find us on twitter @jonathanreiber @dj_skelton, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

The show is brought to you by Illumio, which delivers adaptive security for every computing environment, protecting the 80 percent of data center and cloud traffic missed by the perimeter. For more information, visit www.illumio.com

Illumio

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