Join our Deputy Editor Mauro Echeverría, who will discuss his latest insights regarding Ecuador's insecurity crisis.

Recommended links:
https://impunityobserver.com/2023/06/01/why-ecuador-law-enforcement-is-no-match-for-narcos/
https://impunityobserver.com/2022/10/31/the-origins-of-escalating-violence-in-ecuador/

Ecuador in Crisis: Assassination Is Tip of Criminal Iceberg

Arturo Damm Arnal—economics and philosophy professor at Panamerican University in Mexico—explains how a coalition of three traditional parties will challenge Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party. The National Action Party (PAN), the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have named Xóchitl Gálvez, an indigenous woman, as their presidential candidate for the June 2024 election. Damm Arnal contends the main difference between Gálvez and Morena candidate Claudia Sheinbaum is that Gálvez understands and favors the role of business in the economy. 

For Damm Arnal, although Sheinbaum started the electoral race as the clear favorite, it is still too early to predict the winner. The election's importance, though, is clear: the upcoming election will be fundamental to recovering the separation of powers in Mexico, which the incumbent administration has undermined.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/09/25/two-female-candidates-show-realignment-of-mexican-politics/

Two Female Candidates Show Realignment of Mexican Politics (Spanish)

Sebastián Díaz—an Impunity Observer policy analyst—and Mauro Echeverría—Impunity Observer deputy editor—explain how Ecuadorian President-Elect Daniel Noboa won the election against Correísmo. Further, they analyze the main challenges that Noboa will face in his term, which will last one year and a half, given that Guillermo Lasso dissolved Congress six months ago.

For Díaz and Echeverría, Noboa’s capacity to address the chief concerns of Ecuadorians—the insecurity crisis and lack of economic opportunities—remains a mystery. They contend, however, that the president-elect will work swiftly to tackle these issues because he will need to make a name for himself before seeking reelection in 2025.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/10/17/what-to-make-of-ecuadors-crisis-election/

What to Make of Ecuador's Crisis Election (Spanish)

Adam Dubove—cofounder and director of financial consulting firm Ichimoku Fibonacci—explains that Javier Milei can still beat Peronista Sergio Massa in the runoff. However, he predicts the results will be tight. Further, he contends that the incumbent Peronista government made an elaborate effort to undermine Milei’s candidacy through negative propaganda against the paleolibertarian through media allies and state-owned companies such as Argentine Railways.

For Dubove, the Together for Change coalition, which he describes as the mainstream opposition, will be divided over whom they will support in the runoff. In addition, Dubove explains that if Milei wins the presidency, he will have to negotiate in Congress to pass his bills since he does not have a majority in the legislature.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/10/24/can-the-javier-milei-liberalization-prevail/

Can the Javier Milei Liberalization Prevail?

Maribel Espinoza—a Honduran congresswoman of the Salvador Party—contends that Xiomara Castro’s socialist Libre Party is on a mission to control every branch of the state. She explains that Libre congressmen have violated the Honduran Constitution and the Public Ministry Law with their appointment of a new attorney general. The decision has been in stalemate since August, so the past appointee, Daniel Sibrián, has remained in his position past his planned departure.

Article 205 of the Constitution establishes that Congress must gather at least 86 votes out of 128 members (a two-thirds majority) to elect new Public Ministry authorities. However, only nine Libre congressmen appointed a new attorney general. Opposition congressmen are working to reverse the appointment of Johel Zelaya, who has no experience in criminal prosecution and appears to merely be the candidate most aligned with Libre.

For Espinoza, Congress failed to appoint the new attorney general earlier because incumbent Libre refused to negotiate for votes during congressional sessions. She explains that the Castro administration will accept no one but an attorney general loyal to them, so they can politicize justice in the country: “The real motivation behind this appointment is not to fight corruption.”

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/11/06/maribel-espinoza-libre-party-skirts-law-to-appoint-attorney-general/

Maribel Espinoza: Libre Party Skirts Law to Appoint Attorney General (Spanish)

Adam Dubove, cofounder and director of financial-intelligence service Ichimoku Fibonacci, and Eduardo Marty, founder and president of the Foundation for Intellectual Responsibility in Argentina, contend that Argentine President-Elect Javier Milei has a historic opportunity to succeed in his incoming administration.

Milei, however, needs to work his way through Congress—where his party does not have a majority. Further, he needs to find a competent team to execute his market-liberalization plan.

For Marty, former President Mauricio Macri behaved as a statesman by supporting Milei in the runoff election. Macri did so the day after his preferred candidate lost in the first round of the election. This helped Milei to win the runoff against Peronista candidate and Economy Minister Sergio Massa.

For Marty, Milei is better prepared intellectually than right-leaning politicians such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro or the United States’s Donald Trump. Dubove and Marty agree that Milei’s team will follow Ecuador, El Salvador, and Panama’s dollarization strategy. However, they note that unions and other collectivists will aggressively resist Milei’s classical-liberal ideas.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/11/21/argentina-libertarian-moment/

Argentina's Libertarian Moment

Carlos Torrebiarte—a director with the Association for the Defense of Private Property and a Nuestro Diario weekly columnist—explains how the US Embassy in Guatemala revoked his and his wife’s US travel visa. He contends that the embassy did this to spite him for speaking up against “the policies that the United States wants to impose in Guatemala.” 

For Torrebiarte, the Prosecutor General’s Office must continue its investigation of the Semilla party's fraudulent registration. He explains that if Semilla goes unpunished, it could lead to similar situations in future elections. 

Torrebiarte contends that US officials should not meddle in Guatemala’s internal affairs, especially in a dishonest way that reduces electoral integrity. He adds that the majority of citizens do not trust the electoral system and that this undermines democracy and the rule of law. Further, Torrebiarte claims citizens self-censor because they are afraid to speak up against US actions in Guatemala.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/12/04/guatemalan-loses-visa-after-condemning-us-meddling/

Guatemalan Loses Visa after Condemning US Meddling

José Luis González Dubón—a Guatemalan lawyer, university professor, and independent journalist—explains the irregularities associated with President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo’s Semilla party. These include more than 8,000 forged signatures used to register the party. He contends that international community members such as the Organization of American States were accomplices to electoral fraud and favored their preferred candidate: Arévalo.

For González, Arévalo should not take office in January 2024 because it is immoral and unlawful. If Arévalo does not take office, he explains, Congress must elect a temporary president and vice president until Guatemala holds a new presidential election.  

González contends that the US State Department’s modus operandi in Guatemala is to sanction its adversaries—anyone who promotes sovereignty and the rule of law—by revoking their US travel visas. He adds that the State Department has violated laws in the United States and Guatemala by applying the Engel List arbitrarily in Guatemala, where civilians and politicians have seen their US visas revoked. 

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/12/14/how-foreigners-were-accomplices-to-electoral-fraud-in-guatemala/

How Foreigners Were Accomplices to Electoral Fraud in Guatemala (Spanish)

Mauro Echeverría—deputy editor of the Impunity Observer—and Sebastián Díaz—policy analyst with the Impunity Observer—explain the internal armed conflict in Ecuador. For them, the violence has been increasing since 2020. Díaz adds that gangs declared war on Ecuador after Adolfo “Fito” Macías, leader of the Los Choneros gang, escaped from prison on January 7. Since then, gangs have occupied many streets, firing on anyone in their way, and taken control of a TV network and a university.

Díaz contends that the lack of state control in prisons has been an ongoing problem for the past three years. He adds that gangs have turned prisons into their operation centers. Currently, law enforcement agencies are attacking and capturing gang members in the streets, but there are no official statements regarding the situation inside the prisons. 

Díaz and Echeverría analyze the reactions to the violence crisis from politicians in the Americas such as US Representative María Elvira Salazar (R-FL) and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Díaz explains that even former socialist president and fugitive Rafael Correa sent a message backing the armed forces. In the same message, Correa played the victim by saying he was suffering from political persecution.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2024/01/11/narcoterrorists-declare-war-on-ecuador-spanish/

Narcoterrorists Declare War on Ecuador (Spanish)

Martín Litwak—an Argentine tax and wealth structuring expert—explains that the next three months are key to the Javier Milei administration for implementation of liberal reforms. Milei is enjoying a honeymoon period, and Argentines are on their summer vacations.

Although Litwak expressed his excitement regarding a liberal government to be in power in Argentina and deregulate the economy, he is concerned the Milei administration has not led with tax cuts. Litwak contends that although Argentina has 170 taxes, 10 of them generate more than 92 percent of the state’s revenue. Further, since the burden is so high there is the potential to remove the other 160 and still bring in more revenue, following the logic of the Laffer Curve.

For Litwak, Milei’s presidency can be either a total success or a complete failure; there is no middle ground. The latter will be a disaster for Argentina, since it will invite a return to power of Peronismo. Litwak also contends that the left will continue to fight in the streets against the incumbent administration’s policies.

Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2024/01/15/martin-litwak-javier-milei-must-target-toxic-taxation/

Martín Litwak: Javier Milei Must Target Toxic Taxation

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What to Make of Ecuador's Crisis Election (Spanish)

Impunity Observer

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