Having 'taken back control’ of the UK border after Brexit, the government has ended free movement of people and introduced a new points-based immigration system.

But 10 months on, the UK labour market is under pressure, with a combination of Covid-19, Brexit, and other structural forces causing widespread shortages of workers.

To what extent has the new immigration regime contributed to these labour problems? Is the UK worse affected than other countries? Will there be longer-term benefits from the new immigration regime? Has Brexit made the UK more or less able to address labour market issues? And how is the government making the most of its new-found control?

To discuss these issues, we were joined by an expert panel:

Seema Farazi, Partner, Financial Services, Immigration and Brexit at EY
Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory
Giles Wilkes, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government
Paul Wilson, Policy Director at the Federation of Small Businesses
The event was chaired by Dr Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government.

Brexit and immigration: is taking back control helping the UK economy?

The future of the UK asylum system could dominate the 2024 general election campaign. The prime minister has made his controversial Rwanda plan a flagship part of the government’s agenda, while Labour has committed to reforming the asylum system as part of its plan to tackle Channel crossings. 

Rishi Sunak pledged to clear the legacy asylum backlog by the end of 2023, but the sizeable backlog of people waiting for a decision remains – with the government struggling to deal with new asylum cases and problems elsewhere in the system.  

So what are these problems? Does the government have a coherent plan to bring down the backlog? And what can be done to improve the UK’s asylum system in the long term? 

This panel examined what steps the government can take to ensure the asylum system is fit for purpose in the long term.

We were joined by an expert panel, including:

Alvina Tamara Chibhamu, Ambassador at the VOICES network
Sal Copley, Executive Director of Communications and External Affairs at the British Red Cross
Lizzie Dearden, Home affairs journalist and author
Sir Philip Rutnam, former Permanent Secretary at the Home Office

The event was chaired by Joe Owen, Director of Impact at the Institute for Government.

We would like to thank the British Red Cross for kindly supporting this event.

How can government improve its approach to asylum policy making?

As he prepares to step down as Chief Operating Officer for the Civil Service and Permanent Secretary for the Cabinet Office, Alex Chisholm spoke at the Institute for Government for his final time as a civil servant.  

During nearly a decade at the top of the civil service as a permanent secretary, Alex served four prime ministers and worked with three cabinet secretaries, covering eventful and tumultuous times. After four years as permanent secretary at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, in 2020 Alex moved to his current role at the heart of the civil service.   

Having played a leading part in the civil service reform agenda, Alex reflected on the scheme to relocate parts of the civil service from London, efforts to improve Whitehall’s use of data and digital and to overhaul cross-departmental working, and his reflections on the government’s response during the Covid-19 pandemic.   

At the event, Alex Chisholm was in conversation with IfG Director Dr Hannah White and will take part in an audience Q&A.

In conversation with Alex Chisholm

Fraud is the UK’s most common crime. But despite 3.5 million incidents reported in 2022/23, 40% of all reported crimes, only one in a thousand results in a charge or summons. So why is there such a huge gap between preventing, detecting and prosecuting this crime – and what can be done to fix the problem?

A wide range of organisations have responsibility for tackling fraud, including the Home Office, National Crime Agency, Serious Fraud Office, City of London Police, Metropolitan Police Service, Financial Conduct Authority and the National Cyber Security Centre. However, there are problems with coordination, capacity and capability.

So what can government and others do to help prevent fraud? How can coordination among the various agencies responsible for tackling fraud be improved? And what steps could be taken to help increase detection and prosecution rates?

We were joined by an expert panel, including:

Francesca Carlesi, CEO of Revolut UK
Adrian Searle, Director of the National Economic Crime Centre
Nick Stapleton, Co-Presenter of BBC Scam Interceptors
Rt Hon Emily Thornberry MP, Shadow Attorney General

The event was chaired by Nick Davies, Programme Director at the Institute for Government.

We would like to thank Revolut for kindly supporting this event.

How can government tackle fraud?

Better use of data is key to more effective government. Across government, teams are doing fascinating work with data. But those projects don’t get the attention they deserve. Data Bites aims to change that. 

This event was the 49th in our series, where the speakers present their work in an exciting, quickfire format.

Data Bites #49: Getting things done with data in government

The Treasury is perhaps the most powerful department in Whitehall. Its ownership of public spending means it has direct control over the money available to the rest of government, while the Treasury’s responsibility for tax policy gives it enormous influence over the finances of households and businesses.

But criticism of the department’s influence on government policy is almost as old as the institution itself, with frequent complaints about the “dead hand of the Treasury” or attacks on the department’s “orthodoxy”.

However, a recent IfG report found many of the fiercest criticisms to be overblown: many simply represent a dislike of a budget constraint. The department plays an important function in effectively managing public spending and guarding against financial disorder. It has also consistently been a champion of economic growth, though there is debate about how that is managed against its responsibility for managing government spending. While the department has clear strengths, there are clearly problems with how it functions. The Treasury often takes a short-term approach, is frequently accused of micromanaging other departments, and wields excessive influence over government policy relative to the rest of the centre.

So how can these problems be addressed? How much are they due to the relative weakness of other departments or the incentives facing Treasury ministers? And just what impact does the Treasury have on government policy making? 

Our expert panel exploring these issues and more featured:

James Bowler CB, Permanent Secretary of HM Treasury
Anita Charlesworth, Director of Research at the Health Foundation and former Director of Public Spending at HM Treasury
David Gauke, former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
Giles Wilkes, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government and co-author of Treasury orthodoxy, and former No 10 special adviser for industrial strategy

The event was chaired by Dr Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government.

Does the Treasury wield too much power over government?

Public services have faced the greatest level of disruption from strikes in more than a quarter of a century. Over the past year nurses, ambulance drivers, teachers, junior doctors, consultants, and civil servants, among others, have all staged walkouts to protest against pay and working conditions.

While improved pay offers from Rishi Sunak’s government have resolved many disputes, some staff are still on the picket line and other disputes could flare up again.

So what impact has recent industrial disputes had on public service performance? What skills do ministers, civil servants, frontline public sector leaders and unions need to effectively negotiate with each other and resolve disputes – and what mechanisms can be used to resolve entrenched disputes? How effective are pay review bodies and do they need to be reformed? And to what extent will the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Act help or hinder the management of industrial dispute?

To discuss these questions and more, we were joined by an expert panel, including:

Mike Clancy, General Secretary at Prospect
Baroness Finn, former Government Adviser on Industrial Relations
Raj Jethwa, Chief Executive at UCEA 
Kate Nowicki, Director of Dispute Resolution at Acas

The event was chaired by Nick Davies, Programme Director at the Institute for Government.

How can public sector strikes be solved more effectively?

Just a few hours after Jeremy Hunt sets out his spring budget, a team of Institute for Government experts gathered in the IfG studio to record a special edition of the Inside Briefing podcast. 

Olly Bartrum, Jill Rutter, Dr Gemma Tetlow and Giles Wilkes gave their instant reaction to the budget and shared expert analysis of a major day for the country.  

What have we learned from the chancellor’s big announcements and what choices did he make? What did the new OBR forecasts show about the UK’s economic prospects? What did it mean for public services? How did Labour respond? And how might this budget shape the battles on the economy at the next general election – and when that election might be held?

Inside Briefing LIVE -The General Election Budget

AI-generated ‘deepfake’ audio clips of both London mayor Sadiq Khan and leader of the opposition Sir Keir Starmer have circulated on social media. A faked robocall impersonating Joe Biden was sent to voters before a primary election. The number of AI-enhanced images of politicians is increasing.

In a year when over two billion people in more than 50 countries will vote in elections, the use of AI technology – more widely accessible than ever – and disinformation could have a major impact on trust and integrity.

So what can be done to tackle this growing problem? What can political parties, government, media companies and civil society do to mitigate the risks of AI and ensure electoral integrity? And what steps can be taken ahead the elections of 2024 and then in the longer term.

We were joined by an expert panel, including:

Professor Joe Burton, Professor of International Security in the Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion at Lancaster University
Louise Edwards, Director of Regulation and Digital Transformation at the Electoral Commission
Chris Morris, Chief Executive of Full Fact
Simon Staffell, Director of Government Affairs at Microsoft

The event was chaired by Jill Rutter, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government.

We would like to thank Lancaster University for kindly supporting this event.

General election: How big a threat is AI and disinformation to elections in 2024?

The question of how to reform the House of Lords dominates discussions about the upper house, with less attention focused on its day-to-day activities. Since his election as Lord Speaker in 2021, Lord McFall of Alcluith has sought to champion its important role of revising legislation and advising the government, while ensuring the Lords remains on the path of modernisation. 

Lord McFall has focused on parliamentary outreach and prioritised communicating the value of the House of Lords externally, bringing the devolved parliaments and Westminster closer. He has also worked with schools and universities, and launched a podcast, to demystify the upper house.  

What are public perceptions of the upper chamber and how have they changed? How has the Lords changed its ways of working? What kinds of links does it have with the devolved parliaments? And what might all of this mean for discussions about reform of the Lords? 

Lord McFall addressed these questions and more in a keynote speech at the Institute for Government, before taking part in a discussion with the IfG’s Director Dr Hannah White and an audience Q&A. 

Lord McFall of Alcluith became Lord Speaker in 2021, having served as senior deputy speaker for five years. He entered the Lords in 2010 after spending 23 years in the Commons as Labour MP for Dumbarton and later West Dumbartonshire. There, he served as a minister in the Northern Ireland Office, a government whip, and chaired the Treasury Select Committee between 2001 and 2010, including during the global financial crisis. Before entering politics, Lord McFall worked for over a decade as a teacher.

Keynote speech: Lord McFall of Alcluith, Lord Speaker

Less than a year out from a general election, the significance of opinion polls in shaping public perception and political strategy is increasingly prominent. Political pundits, parties, journalists and members of the public look to opinion polls to give them a picture of what people are thinking about parties and politicians, their priorities and concerns, and how they might vote. Crucially, public opinion will inform political parties’ election strategies and the public’s voting decisions. 

But with multiple companies publishing a range of different polls, it can be a confusing landscape. To interpret polling results, understanding the methodologies behind opinion polls, including sampling, margin of error and the all-important question framing, is more important than ever. And for those trying to understand party strategies, it is essential to understand the role polling plays. 

To explore these questions and more, we were joined by an expert panel including:

Kelly Beaver MBE, Chief Executive of Ipsos in the UK and Ireland
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research at Labour Together
Rob Ford, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe
Tom Lubbock, Founding Partner of JL Partners

The event was chaired by Jill Rutter, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government.

We would like to thank UKICE for kindly supporting this event.

General election: What role does polling play in shaping political strategy?

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Brexit and immigration: is taking back control helping the UK economy?

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