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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is switching up its usual production standards for its upcoming strawweight main event clash. Mackenzie Dern is set to take on Yan Xiaonan in a polar opposite matchup in the UFC Apex arena that will be closed off to the public and media. Yeah, that’s right: a good old empty arena showdown featuring one of the MMA’s finest grapplers versus one of the strawweight division’s best strikers.

The adversaries couldn’t be more different in their style and approach to the cage. Dern’s top-notch Brazilian jiu-jitsu has earned her seven submission victories in her professional mixed martial arts career. However, the decorated grappling sensation has yet to taste the triumph of victory by knockout. Contrarily, Xiaonan has collected seven knockouts on her resume compared to zero submissions tallied.

Regardless of the outcome, a definitive win here will more than likely bring the victor to the doorstep of a title shot. With that in mind, let’s look at the latest Dern vs. Yan odds and share some key fight insights via our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, including a prediction for the final result.

Daniel Santos is still getting his feet wet in the promotion, and a second career loss to Julio Arce was a tough one to get started with. Against John Castaneda, he’s closer to where he should be in the pecking order, but Castaneda is rapidly gaining momentum.

Dhoom 3

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Castaneda followed up a big knockout over seasoned veteran Eddie Wineland with a February triangle choke of Miles Johns. The activity has maybe been a bit more spread than preferred, but Castaneda is continually proving to be a threat in more ways than one. 

Anyone who saw Davis’ performance against Thomas Gifford will never forget the life-altering beatdown they witnessed. A sickeningly thumping puncher, Davis is game to exchange with the best of them, and when he lands, he lands heavy.

Viacheslav Borshchev started his UFC career brilliantly in January by scoring a liver shot knockout against Dakota Bush. Unfortunately, he then ran into “D-1” Marc Diakiese and was smothered into oblivion. That would be stunning to see happen against Davis, and these two will likely go to war. With Davis returning for the first time since Jan. 2021, expect a lot of pent-up aggression to be let out.

Alexey Oleynik vs. Ilir Latifi is a fight so perfectly heavyweight that it should be entertainingly terrible the longer it lasts … but that shouldn’t be very long.

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“The Zohan” rebounded from his first-ever loss to Brandon Davis by smashing Boston Salmon and Journey Newson in under three minutes combined and earning himself a Performance of the Night bonus along the way. The success wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive stoppage losses. All of his pro victories have come by knockout within 2:30.

Now eight years removed from his stint on the first-ever TUF: Latin America, Cannetti struggled to a 2-5 UFC start. His most recent effort proved his most impressive, however, as he crushed Kris Moutinho in just over two minutes. He gives up three inches of height and five inches of reach to Costa.

There’s been a trend lately of fighters who, after losing due to cardio problems, become so utterly terrified of gassing out that they barely throw strikes. It happened to Yohan Lainesse, it happened to Louis Cosce, and it looks like it happened to Costa against Tony Kelley. Costa threw just 37 significant strikes in the first round of that fight compared to over 100 against Adrian Yanez, and while that latter pace probably wasn’t sustainable, he overcompensated so much that he lost what made him effective in the first place.

Still, even a fraction of a fraction of Costa’s abilities should be sufficient to win him this fight. He’s taller, more durable, younger, more technically sound with his strikes, and a hell of a lot more powerful. If he doesn’t chin Cannetti in the first few minutes, he might be broken for good.

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Oleynik is practically a shell of an athlete at this point who is still somehow capable of sneakily catching his rare submissions whenever the fight falls to the ground. He was once a fairly dangerous puncher, but at 45, his technique—along with cardio—quickly goes out the window.

Whether at light heavyweight or in this current heavyweight landscape, Latifi is “The Sledgehammer” for a reason. The Swede is a fire hydrant of a man and shouldn’t need many shots to shatter the eroding chin of the Russian. Latifi has solid grappling chops to boot and is very physically strong, but like Yan against Dern, there’s no reason whatsoever to even risk playing with grappling in this one.

The UFC time travels back to 2020 inside its Apex facility on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022 for an empty UFC Vegas 61. No fans, no media, no problem for the fighters who will start the action with the prelims at 4 p.m. EST.

Top strawweight competitors collide in the evening’s main event when Mackenzie Dern battles Yan Xiaonan. For China’s “Fury,” it will be Yan’s first UFC appearance as a headliner while it’s Dern’s second. The Shenyang, Liaoning native aims to snap a two-fight skid at the expense of her Brazilian counterpart. A win for Dern continues her momentum rebuild after a tough loss in her prior main event showing.

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“All In” followed up his successful Contender Series appearance with three consecutive UFC victories before running afoul of Sean Strickland. Undeterred, he’s since won four of five, including a narrow decision over Jacob Malkoun in June 2022. His pro finishes are split 10/5 between submissions and knockouts.

Poland’s Jotko saw a 6-1 UFC start give way to three straight defeats, two of them via knockout. He now sits at 5-1 in his last six with notable wins over Eryk Anders and Gerald Meerschaert. He stands an inch shorter than Allen but will have a two-inch reach advantage.

Jotko’s role in the Middleweight division is to test your wrestling. His striking, takedown offense, and takedown defense let him outstrike grappling specialists and outwrestles strikers who haven’t properly rounded out their games. That’s fine and dandy against one-dimensional fighters, but not a fellow all-rounder like Allen, who’s also by far the better finisher.

That looks like the difference here. With a wrestling deadlock likely, Allen’s higher-volume striking attack figures to catch the judges’ eyes than Jotko’s robotic, powerless kickboxing. Don’t expect a barnburner, but do expect Allen to outwork him to a decision win.

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After a one-and-done first UFC stint saw her lose a split decision to Leah Letson, Stoliarenko amassed five wins on the regional circuit to return to the promotion in 2020. Though she lost the first three bouts of her second stint, she came up big in July 2022 with a bonus-winning 42-second armbar of Jessica-Rose Clark. She steps in for Leah Letson on less than two months’ notice.

Chandler, a Cesar Gracie product, fell short in her 2018 pro debut under the Invicta banner. She’s unbeaten since, most recently ending a nearly two-year layoff with a decision over Courtney King. She is the taller woman by an inch.

Grishin versus Philipe Lins is a fight between two of the slowest workers in the division, as both land exactly 3.40 significant strikes per minute. If previous fights are any indication, this bout should turn into a staring match in short order, punctuated by 50/50 grappling positions along the fence. It's hard to recommend touching this fight in standard DFS contests, as it seems built to frustrate fans for 15 minutes.

As an arm bar specialist, it's difficult to imagine that Stoliarenko would want anything to do with Chelsea Chandler when it comes to striking. The debutante has surprising power for the division and can mix her targets well. Instead, I expect Stoliarenko to try and ground this fight early and often, leading to quite a few stall positions along the fence line. However it ends, I don't expect the Lithuanian fighter to be at range long enough to get anywhere near this total.

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Makhachev (24-1) has won 12 fights in a row, most recently a unanimous decision over Volkanovski in February. Makhachev, who won the title from Oliveira last October via submission, is ESPN's pound-for-pound No. 2.

The top-ranked Volkanovski (26-2) bounced back from the loss to Makhachev by successfully defending his 145-pound belt against Yair Rodriguez, winning the July bout by third-round TKO.

As if that weren't enough last-minute change, the co-main event also shifted from Khamzat Chimaev vs. Paulo Costa to Chimaev vs. -- you ready for this? -- former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman. Costa was pulled from the bout because of an arm injury.

What are the storylines behind the revamped UFC 294? How are experts breaking down the top fights? What do the fighters have to say? Here is the fight card, how to watch it and a collection of all of the UFC 294 essentials.

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But you can be 100% sure Volk isn’t coming to the UAE to raise a white flag. He’s a fantastic fighter who used to be No. 1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings. His record is 26-2, with his first loss happening in his fourth professional fight, back in 2013.

His second loss happened more than 10 years later when Makhachev beat him after five rounds of intense fighting. What’s interesting about that fight is that it was Volk’s first lightweight fight since 2016.

Maybe every major UFC card should be left blank until a couple of weeks before fight night. Last-minute matchmaking sure has worked wonders for UFC 294.

Last Wednesday, 11 days before the first punch was to be thrown, both the main event and co-main evaporated into thin air. Never fear, fight fans. UFC matchmakers went right to work with their patch-up-the-holes kit. And within hours, they had pieced together an even mightier 1-2 punch for the top of the UFC 294 marquee.

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Makhachev will move from one rematch to another, this time with a far more competitive two-to-tango partner, Alexander Volkanovski. The last fight ended with the featherweight champ on top of a knocked-down, tuckered-out Makhachev, dropping punches as the horn sounded to end Round 5 of their lightweight superfight at UFC 284 in February.

He’s smaller than Makhachev, as well as (probably) less powerful, but the fact is that he did knock Makhachev down in their previous fight. The reason why he lost is that the Dagestani fighter just did better wrestling-wise. He made four takedowns on Volk, which is the most anyone’s ever done to the Australian.

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 294 predictions and picks for October 21 with Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski headlining the event in a lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 2:00pm ET from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

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Moments later, Makhachev was the one getting his hand raised as the winner of a unanimous decision to retain his title. But Volkanovski had been so impressive that he, not Makhachev, sits on top of the ESPN men's pound-for-pound rankings. Can't wait to see Round 6 and beyond from No. 1 and No. 2.

This weekend's co-main event experienced an even grander upgrade, as it now features a fighter who spent a considerable time in that No. 1 pound-for-pound slot. Kamaru Usman, the former longtime welterweight champ, stepped in to offer Chimaev what looks like the stiffest test of his undefeated career.

When talking about striking, Usman is landing 4.46 strikes/min and is landing 52% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Khamzat Chimaev, who lands 59% of his attempted strikes and is landing 7.30 per minute.

Featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski first faced Makhachev in a champ vs. champ bout back in February, and pushed him all the way en route to a tight decision loss. Many people believed Makhachev had done just enough to win, but equally, a number believed ‘Alexander the Great’ deserved the nod too.

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A Dern submission is the safe pick, but Yan’s physicality and strength shouldn’t be underestimated against the BJJ ace who struggles with her overall takedown approach.

The 44-year-old former Jungle Fights champion has that wood-like “old” man strength. He’s just durable and deceptively dangerous. Riding a two-fight win streak, Trinaldo has proven he can still hang with some of the young guns, whether on the feet or the mat.

Since losing a big bout against Vicent Luque, Randy Brown has seemingly turned a new leaf, winning three in a row. Brown has always packed big power and pulled off some sneaky submissions when opportunities arise. The lanky “Rude Boy” will want to keep the dense Trinaldo off of him at all costs. From range, he can have his way and chip at the Brazilian’s rugged exterior. 

Mackenzie Dern, a grappling prodigy, has transitioned very effectively into MMA. A former IBJJF champion, Dern is levels above her peers on the mat which has shown in her UFC career so far. Since signing with the promotion in 2018, she has already picked up four submission wins and sits at No.5 in the 115-pound rankings.

Depending on how aggressive Trinaldo gets, however, Brown may catch him in an advantageous position or get caught himself. With both coming off two decisions, they may be more amped to find a finish in that empty Apex.

At UFC Vegas 61, Dern will square off against Yan Xiaonan in the main event. Xiaonan has been on the roster since 2017 and launched her UFC career with five successive decision wins. Two losses on the trot have halted her momentum and she sits one place behind Dern on the strawweight ladder.

Despite his recent losses against Victor Henry and Timur Valiev, Raoni Barcelos is one of the more well-rounded sluggers at 135 pounds. In a way, he’s kind of similar to Trinaldo but not quite as old at 35.

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