This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250912/                                    

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Israel Strikes Hamas in Qatar; Russian Drones Shot Down in Poland

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Andrew P. Miller, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP) and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Israeli-Palestinian Affairs in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. They discuss his experience shaping U.S. policy towards Israel/Palestine, including sanctions targeting perpetrators of violence in the West Bank, regional diplomacy, and the evolving role of U.S. engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially concerning Israel’s war in Gaza.

Inside the State Department: U.S. Policy on Israel and Palestine and the Future of Middle East Peace

This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states warned they may reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework deal regarding the sale of Chinese social media app TikTok, extending its deadline, while China ordered its companies to stop buying microchips from U.S. chipmaker Nvidia. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured European nations to suspend all energy imports from Russia, while Polish defense officials announced a joint cooperation initiative with Ukraine on countering drone attacks following last week’s incursion by Russian drones into Polish airspace. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve announced it would be cutting interest rates, with more cuts expected before the end of the year.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250919/                                          

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Israel Faces Diplomatic Fallout Amid Gaza City Offensive

In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Robert Kremzner sits down with John Nagl and Jonathan Schroden, experts in irregular warfare and the American experience in Afghanistan. Together, they go over the strategic, operational, and tactical failure of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, how the Afghanistan withdrawal can inform future withdrawals, and President Donald Trump’s call to re-occupy the Bagram Airbase.

Why Did the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan Fail?

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.

In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.

In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.

Read the Q4 Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q4-2025-forecast/                                             

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


Global Hotspots: Q4 Forecast Outlook

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251003/                                  

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


Global Hotspots: U.S. Launches New Peace Proposal for Israel-Gaza War

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.

Global Hotspots: Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast, host Rachel Nelson talks with Matthew Petti, an assistant editor at Reason whose work has appeared in outlets including the BBC, The Intercept, and New Lines Magazine. They discuss the covert funding of Israeli settlements by U.S.-registered charities, specifically what projects and purchases they are financing, how their work exacerbates violent conditions in the West Bank, and how U.S. policymakers approach the topic.

U.S.-Based Charities are Funding Israeli Settlements

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations and delays were reported. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said India confirmed it would halt Russian oil purchases. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump to discuss the U.S. possibly providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured his Japanese counterparts to halt Russian oil purchases. Trump confirmed CIA covert operations in Venezuela as the Pentagon confirmed a striking a fifth alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean.                                       

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251017/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Challenges


This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the EU passed sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure and vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals deal ahead of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the Chinese Communist Party approved a draft of its new five-year plan. In the Middle East, U.S. officials traveled to Israel in an attempt to bolster Gaza ceasefire efforts amid reports of clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinians.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20251024/                                         

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


Global Hotspots: U.S. and EU Sanction Russia Amid Diplomatic Setbacks

New Lines Institute focuses on issues at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics.

For more on Newlines Institute, please visit our website: www.newlinesinstitute.org

Global Hotspots: Q4 Forecast Outlook

New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy

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