Ricardo Vargas recently published 10 short videos about the 10 big ideas on his mind regarding what could happen in 2025, essentially exploring trends for the future. In doing so, he wanted to record a podcast reflecting on these ideas, but not just from his own perspective. 
Ricardo aimed to showcase the disruption caused by artificial intelligence, using Google Notebook LM to generate a reflection on these 10 big ideas with AI support. What listeners will hear, apart from the introduction and the first few seconds, was entirely generated by artificial intelligence. 
The goal is to demonstrate how this disruption is much closer than we think.

Listen to the podcast to know more.


Inviting Google’s Notebook LM AI Hosts to Reflect on the 10 Big Ideas For 2025

In this episode, Ricardo discusses activity loops, which occur when tasks become predecessors and successors to each other, creating cycles that make schedule calculations difficult. Although schedules are designed for linear flows, engineering and innovation projects are often iterative, with constant revisions and feedback. Looping isn't a mistake, but it needs to be represented correctly. Ricardo suggests some ways to avoid this problem, such as creating successive versions (elaboration 1, 2, final), using intermediate milestones, or delayed start-start relationships. When interdependence is unavoidable, he recommends using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM), which maps circular relationships and helps plan blocks of iterative activities. The important thing is to choose the model that best represents the project's reality.

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The Invisible Loop: Why Your Schedule Never Balances Out

Neste episódio, Ricardo fala sobre os loops de atividades, que ocorrem quando tarefas se tornam predecessoras e sucessoras entre si, gerando ciclos que dificultam o cálculo dos cronogramas. Embora os cronogramas sejam pensados para fluxos lineares, projetos de engenharia e inovação costumam ser iterativos, com revisões e feedbacks constantes. O loop não é um erro, mas precisa ser representado corretamente. Ricardo sugere algumas formas de evitar esse problema, como criar versões sucessivas (elaboração 1, 2, final), usar marcos intermediários ou relações início-início com atraso. Quando a interdependência é inevitável, ele recomenda o uso da Design Structure Matrix (DSM), que mapeia relações circulares e ajuda a planejar blocos de atividades iterativas. O importante é escolher o modelo que melhor represente a realidade do projeto.

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O Loop Invisível: Por Que Seu Cronograma Nunca Fecha

In this episode, Ricardo explains why executives need to understand the logic of project management to make informed strategic decisions. Projects drive organizational changes, such as digital transformation, new products, entry into new markets, and mergers. Without understanding how projects add value and manage risk, leaders may fail to connect strategy to execution. Many focus only on "normal functioning," but the future depends on "business as change." By understanding the dynamics of projects, executives ask better questions, support teams effectively, and build a results-oriented culture. This knowledge helps them keep pace with the organization, prioritize efficiently, and see failures as learning opportunities. True leadership requires learning to think like a project, not like tools, but like governance, critical thinking, and value creation.
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Executives Who Don’t Understand Projects Can’t Deliver Results

Neste episódio, Ricardo explica por que os executivos precisam entender a lógica da gestão de projetos para tomar decisões estratégicas embasadas. Projetos impulsionam mudanças organizacionais, como transformação digital, novos produtos, entrada em novos mercados e fusões. Sem entender como os projetos agregam valor e gerenciam riscos, os líderes podem não conseguir conectar a estratégia à execução. Muitos se concentram apenas no "funcionamento normal", mas o futuro depende de "negócios como mudança". Ao compreender a dinâmica dos projetos, os executivos fazem perguntas melhores, apoiam as equipes de forma eficaz e constroem uma cultura orientada a resultados. Esse conhecimento os ajuda a acompanhar o ritmo da organização, priorizar com eficiência e enxergar as falhas como oportunidades de aprendizado. A verdadeira liderança exige aprender a pensar como um projeto,  não como ferramentas, mas como governança, pensamento crítico e criação de valor.
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Executivos que não entendem projetos, não entregam resultados

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities.
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Luck, Probability, and Risk: What Is Really Under Your Control in Projects

Neste episódio, Ricardo discute o papel da sorte e da probabilidade na gestão de projetos. Ele explica que, embora a sorte possa influenciar os resultados, ela favorece aqueles que estão preparados. A probabilidade, segundo ele, não é uma previsão, mas uma ferramenta de tomada de decisão que ajuda a gerenciar a incerteza. Gerentes de projeto eficazes transformam a aleatoriedade em resultados por meio da preparação: identificando riscos, criando planos de contingência, definindo gatilhos e construindo reservas. Ricardo também alerta para o viés da retrospectiva, que nos faz subestimar a sorte após o sucesso. Ele recomenda modelar a incerteza com cenários, usar simulações para decisões de alto risco, proteger o caminho crítico com reservas e incorporar flexibilidade aos projetos. A verdadeira gestão, conclui ele, não se trata de eliminar a sorte, mas de moldar como ela afeta os resultados — transformando a incerteza em escolhas e oportunidades mais inteligentes.
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Sorte, Probabilidade e Risco: o que realmente está sob seu controle nos projetos

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the new edition of PMBOK 8, which brings important changes more aligned with the real work of project managers. Based on nearly 48,000 data points and two rounds of global feedback, it has become more practical, clear, and value-oriented. The old 12 principles have been condensed into six more focused ones, while maintaining good project practices. The traditional five process groups return and now apply to predictive, agile, and hybrid projects. The old knowledge areas have evolved into seven performance domains: governance, scope, schedule, finance, stakeholders, resources, and risks. This edition also features 40 updated processes with integrated ITTOs and reinforces tailoring with practical examples, making the guide more applicable and balanced.

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My First Impressions about the PMBOK® Guide 8th Edition

Neste episódio, Ricardo fala sobre a nova edição do PMBOK 8, que traz mudanças importantes e mais alinhadas ao trabalho real dos gerentes de projetos. Baseada em quase 48 mil dados e duas rodadas de feedback global, ela se tornou mais prática, clara e orientada a valor. Os antigos 12 princípios foram condensados em seis mais focados, mantendo o bom comportamento em projetos. Os tradicionais cinco grupos de processos retornam e passam a valer para projetos preditivos, ágeis e híbridos. As antigas áreas de conhecimento evoluíram para sete domínios de desempenho: governança, escopo, cronograma, finanças, stakeholders, recursos e riscos. A edição também traz 40 processos atualizados com ITTOs integrados e reforça o tailoring com exemplos práticos, tornando o guia mais aplicável e equilibrado.

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Minhas Primeiras Impressões sobre o PMBOK® Guide 8a Edição

In this episode, Ricardo discusses a key change in the PMBOK® Guide 8th edition: the relationship between stakeholders and communication. In previous editions, communication was a separate knowledge area, but now it is considered part of stakeholder management. This shift is significant because communication only exists when there are stakeholders with different needs. If a project had no stakeholders besides yourself, communication would be unnecessary. Therefore, communication is a tool to support stakeholder engagement. In the new PMBOK® structure, stakeholders remain a performance domain that includes planning, execution, and control activities. Ricardo encourages PMI members to download the PMBOK® Guide PDF and explore these updates to improve project value and delivery.

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What Happened with the Communication Domain in the PMBOK® Guide 8th Edition?

Neste episódio, Ricardo discute uma mudança fundamental na 8ª edição do Guia PMBOK®: a relação entre as partes interessadas e a comunicação. Nas edições anteriores, a comunicação era uma área de conhecimento separada, mas agora é considerada parte da gestão das partes interessadas. Essa mudança é significativa porque a comunicação só existe quando há partes interessadas com necessidades diferentes. Se um projeto não tivesse partes interessadas além de você, a comunicação seria desnecessária. Portanto, a comunicação é uma ferramenta para apoiar o engajamento das partes interessadas. Na nova estrutura do PMBOK®, as partes interessadas permanecem um domínio de desempenho que inclui atividades de planejamento, execução e controle. Ricardo incentiva os membros do PMI a baixarem o PDF do Guia PMBOK® e explorarem essas atualizações para melhorar o valor e a entrega do projeto.

Escute o podcast para saber mais.


O Que Aconteceu com o Domínio Comunicações no Guia PMBOK® 8a Edição?

Hello

Thanks for visiting my profile. 

I am an experienced leader in global operations, project management, business transformation, and crisis management. My main focus is implementing innovative global initiatives, capital projects, and product development. I have directed dozens of projects across industries and continents, managing more than $20 billion in global initiatives over the past 25 years.

I am a seasoned board member who has participated in the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance (IBGC) board member program. I was the first Latin American to become chairman of the board of the Project Management Institute globally, where I served for four years. I am also a member of the advisory board of Yera, an Estonian startup dedicated to improving employee performance and engagement through technology and artificial intelligence.

I share my expertise with millions of professionals around the globe through my "5 Minutes Podcast," which I have hosted since 2007 and has reached 12 million views. I've written 16 books on project management, risk and crisis management, and transformation, which have been translated into six languages and sold over half a million copies.

I am a seasoned speaker and have delivered over 250 keynote addresses in 40 countries. My influence on the sector was affirmed when I became the first Latin American to be elected Chairman of the Project Management Institute.

My work as a venture capitalist and entrepreneur in artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data, chatbots, and machine learning resulted in tools and products that have revolutionized how users bring agility and agile management into project management software.

More than two decades ago, I founded Macrosolutions, a global consulting firm with international operations in energy, infrastructure, IT, oil, and finance.

Between 2016 and 2020, I envisioned and led the Brightline Initiative, a Project Management Institute think tank in partnership with leading organizations dedicated to helping executives bridge the expensive, unproductive gap between strategy design and delivery.

Before Brightline, I was Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) Infrastructure and Project Management Group, leading over 1,000 projects and $1.2 billion in humanitarian and development projects. I was also responsible for the first ESG Report in the UN System, published in 2015.

I have a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering, an undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, and a master's degree in Industrial Engineering.

Inviting Google’s Notebook LM AI Hosts to Reflect on the 10 Big Ideas For 2025

Ricardo Viana Vargas - 5 Minutes Podcast

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