After a rundown of the markets and macro news for June 12-16, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the June FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s press conference (15:31). The federal funds rate remained unchanged, and Sam goes through what that meant for the interest charged on reserves, the overnight reverse repo facility*, the amount available to borrow at the banking window and the caps on quantitative tightening (QT). He then recaps the Summary of Economic Projections (17:32), which maintains the Fed’s hawkish stance on potential tightening (a position echoed in post-meeting Fedspeak (13:12)). Jeff then runs down Powell’s Other Way ’Round Bro press conference (20:57), where in a break from tradition Powell’s comments bolstered market activity as the event went on. Jeff discusses how similar Powell’s language was to the last press conference, flagging exceptions such as the Fed chair’s parsing of “skip” and “pause” in regard to the June rates decision. Once again, Powell masterfully avoided any answers on QT policy.

In the breakdown of the market week, Sam notes that risk assets really liked Wednesday’s Fed move (2:11), with the S&P 500 surging, while fixed income shrugged off the hike break (4:36). Commodities scored their second up week in a row (6:52) and Bitcoin was flat (8:25). Macro Land (9:18) had a very busy week beyond the FOMC meeting, including CPI and PPI prints as well as retail sales numbers and jobless claims. Next week’s holiday-shortened week will bring a run of Fed officials speaking in public (32:43). This episode was recorded before market close on June 16, 2023.

*For more on the overnight reverse repo facility, check out: MMM Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility
https://doubleline.com/markets-insights/mmm-episode-112-red-week/

Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 120: The Fed ‘Skips’ and/or ‘Pauses’ Its Rate Hikes

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