Just over three years since we left the EU single market, what has been the trade impact of Brexit? British exporters and importers trading with the EU have faced a whole new regulatory environment. Has Brexit led to shifts in the UK’s trade patterns – a pivot towards other parts of the world? Or does the gravity model beloved of trade economists still hold true? Has the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (the TCA) proven to be a satisfactory framework for EU-UK trade? And, with elections happening in both the EU and the UK later this year, might we see any kind of movement towards changes in the TCA over the next few years?'
Hosted by Chris Horseman, with Nicolo Tamberi (CITP), Emily Fry (Resolution Foundation) and John Springford (CER)

What do we know about UK trade 3 years after Brexit: good, bad or ugly?

As the UK enters the post-Brexit transition period, Boris Johnson has made clear that a trade deal with the US is as big a priority, if not more so, than a deal with the EU. But are Britain and America natural trade partners? What benefits could a transatlantic trade deal deliver? And what about chlorinated chicken? 

To discuss all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; Sir Jonathan Faull, Chair of European Public Affairs for the Brunswick Group and Fellow of the UKTPO; Iana Dreyer, Founder and Editor of Borderlex; and Alan Beattie, Senior Trade Writer for the Financial Times and Associate Fellow of Chatham House.

Testing the Special Relationship: Prospects for a UK-US Trade Deal

Boris Johnson promised to ‘get Brexit done’ when he won the UK General Election in December 2019 - and on one level he achieved that aim on 31 January. However, there is still much to be decided as the UK begins the process of disengaging from the EU. Can a Free Trade Agreement between the two sides be achieved by the transition deadline of 31 December? What happens if a deal can’t be struck? Does a Brexit cliff-edge loom once more?

Chris Horseman is joined by Peter Holmes, Anand Menon and Fabian Zuleeg to explore what is still on the agenda in the months and years ahead.

Have we got Brexit done yet? (And if not - what's left to do?)

Now that the UK has left the European Union, the Government has promised to complete a whole string of Free Trade Agreements with the EU, the United States, and various other trading partners around the world. But is there a catch to doing these negotiations? Are there trade-offs involved - and what are they likely to be? And how easy will it be to work towards a closer trade relationship with the rest of the world, while still in the process of disengaging from the EU?

Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Emily Lydgate, Dr Anna Jerzewska, Maddy Thimont Jack, and Dr Holger Hestermeyer to unravel these complex questions.

How will the UK approve future trade agreements?

The question of the Irish border has been one of the most contentious issues in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. Boris Johnson has claimed that his Brexit deal is the best of all worlds, maintaining frictionless trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. But is this case? What does the settlement reached in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement actually mean for trade between Great Britain, Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic and the rest of the EU?

To unravel these issues, Chris Horseman is joined by L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO; Michael Gasiorek, Professor of Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; and John Campbell, BBC Northern Ireland’s Business and Economics Editor.

Dude where's my border? UK, Irish and EU trade post-Brexit

After almost half a century as an EU member state, the UK is about to become an autonomous member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). For some, this represents an exciting opportunity. But what is the value of WTO membership? And given the multiple challenges that the rules-based trading system is facing at present, can Britain be a force for good in securing a more reliable trading environment?

To explore all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Minako Morita-Jaeger, Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; Patrick Low, Former Chief of Staff and Chief Economist at the WTO, and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory; and Amar Breckenridge, Senior Associate at Frontier Economics.

Going Truly Global: Britain's role in the World Trade Organisation

Back in early February, the Department for International Trade announced that it was seeking the views of stakeholders on what sort of tariffs the UK should apply on its imports of goods. As an EU member, the UK applied the same tariffs as the rest of the EU, but as from next year it can do what it likes tariff-wise. So is this a chance for ‘Global Britain’ to tear away the protectionist trappings of the EU and embrace the free market at last? Or might Britain’s manufacturing and agricultural industries want to retain some tariff protection against cheaper imports from overseas? And how do UK import tariffs actually affect businesses, consumers and the UK economy?

To offer their views on all this and more, Chris Horseman is joined by Julia Magntorn Garrett, Rodney Ludema, Allie Renison, and Sue Davies.

Open to the world? The UK’s Global Tariff consultation

For the past few years, the United States and China have been at each other’s throats, with the Trump administration slapping a series of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing responding with its own retaliatory measures. The US accuses China of not playing fair when it comes to global trade. So what is it that China has done to incur the wrath of the White House? What lies behind the tensions between Washington and Beijing? And why should Europe care about what is going on? Are there opportunities that UK businesses could exploit, or will they just get caught in the crossfire?

To explore the specifics of these trade tensions, Chris Horseman is joined by Jim Rollo, Deputy Director of the UKTPO and Associate Fellow of Chatham House; and Steven McGuire, Dean of the University of Sussex Business School and Fellow of the UKTPO.

US-China trade tensions: The threats and opportunities for Europe

For many people, the idea that the National Health Service may be ‘up for sale’ in the UK’s upcoming international trade negotiations is a cause of great anxiety. But what does that phrase even mean? The NHS offers a massive range of services, from brain surgery to cleaning the hospital windows. So if any of these services are subcontracted, who is allowed to bid for them? To what extent do health care services form part of the discussions in international trade negotiations, such as the one the UK has recently commenced with the US? And are there international rules about what can, or should, or may not be on the table? 

To get to grips with these important questions, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; and Laura Bannister, Senior Adviser at the Trade Justice Movement.

What's for Sale? The NHS and trade agreements

Trade in services is generally reckoned to account for about 80% of the UK economy. The UK financial services sector alone makes a contribution to the economy that is worth the equivalent of the entire GDP or Bulgaria and Croatia combined. So why do we hear so little about services in the context of the trade negotiations that are just getting underway with the EU and the US? Is the UK missing a trick?

In the final episode of this series, Chris Horseman is joined by Dr Ingo Borchert, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Fellow of the UKTPO; Julia Magntorn Garrett, Research Assistant in the Economics of Brexit at the UKTPO; and Sebastian Benz, Policy Analyst and Economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The Missing 80% - Making Deals on Trade in Services

Trade Bites - the podcast about trade policy. Brought to you by the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy, and presented by Chris Horseman of Borderlex.

What do we know about UK trade 3 years after Brexit: good, bad or ugly?

Trade Bites

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