The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is an interdisciplinary research centre focused on the study of risks threatening human extinction that may emerge from technological advances. CSER aims to combine key insights from the best minds across disciplines to tackle the greatest challenge of the coming century: safely harnessing our rapidly-developing technological power.

An existential risk is one that threatens the existence of our entire species. The Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) — a joint initiative between philosopher Huw Price, cosmologist Martin Rees, and software entrepreneur Jaan Tallinn — was founded on the conviction that these risks require a great deal more scientific investigation than they presently receive. The Centre’s aim is to develop a new science of existential risk, and to develop protocols for the investigation and mitigation of technology-driven existential risks. 

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

What is the future of religion?

Rory Cellan-Jones talks to Iza Hussin and Paul Seabright about recent trends in world religions, the interplay between politics and religion, and the economics of religion.

This episode unpacks the widespread belief that religion is in decline and explores why this view is mistaken. Leading experts discuss the intersection between religion and politics, the rivalry within and between religions, and how wider socioeconomic trends are both impacted by and impacting religious movements. 

This episode is hosted by Rory Cellan-Jones (former technology correspondent for the BBC), and features guest experts Iza Hussin (University of Cambridge) and Paul Seabright (IAST). 

Season 2 Episode 10 transcript

For more information about the podcast and the work of the institutes, visit our websites at https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ and https://www.iast.fr/.

Tweet us with your thoughts at @BennettInst and @IASToulouse



Audio production by Steve Hankey

Associate production by Stella Erker

Visuals by Tiffany Naylor

What is the future of religion?

Rory Cellan-Jones talks to Ingela Alger (IAST) and Flavio Toxvaerd (University of Cambridge) about the drivers of research silos, the merits of conducting interdisciplinary research and how to overcome disciplinary divides.

This episode takes a look at why academic research is trapped in research silos. Ingela Alger (IAST) and Flavio Toxvaerd (University of Cambridge) talk to Rory Cellan-Jones, about the challenges faced in conducting interdisciplinary research. They emphasize the significant benefits that interdisciplinarity can bring and share insight into how to foster an interdisciplinary research culture for better results. 

Listen to this episode on your preferred podcast platform

Season 3 Episode 2 transcript

For more information about this podcast series and the work of the institutes, visit our websites at https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/ and https://www.iast.fr/

Tweet us with your thoughts at @BennettInst and @IASToulouse.

With thanks to:

Audio production – Steve Hankey
Associate production –  Stella Erker
Visuals – Tiffany Naylor


More about our host and guests:
Rory Cellan-Jones was a technology correspondent for the BBC. His 40 years in journalism have seen him take a particular interest in the impact of the internet and digital technology on society and business. He has also written multiple books, including his latest “Always On” which was published in 2021. @ruskin147

Ingela Alger is a CNRS Senior Scientist (DR) in Economics, and the current Director of the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST) as well as the Chair of the Department in Social and Behavioral Sciences. Her research, which has been published in international peer-reviewed journals such as the American Economic Review, Econometrica, and PNAS, focuses on the evolutionary foundations of human preferences, when these are transmitted from generation to generation and are subject to selection. She is particularly interested in the evolutionary foundations of morality and distributional preferences, as well as preferences guiding family-related behaviors. She has been awarded numerous grants, notably ANR Chaire d’Excellence 2012-2017, and ERC Advanced Grant 2019-2023. In 2022 she was awarded the CNRS Silver Medal. @ingelaalger 

Flavio Toxvaerd is a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, a Fellow of Clare College and an Affiliated Researcher with the Bennett Institute for Public Policy. He serves as UKRI Policy Fellow in Competition and Productivity Economics with the Competition and Markets Authority. His research and teaching interests are in microeconomics and game theory with applications, including industrial organisation, competition policy and economic epidemiology. @toxvaerd1

If you enjoyed this podcast then check out:

Crossing Channels S2E5 featuring Sarah Dillon and Manvir Singh “Why are stories important for society?” 
Alger, I., Weibull, J. W., & Lehmann, L. (2020). Evolution of preferences in structured populations: genes, guns, and culture. Journal of Economic Theory, 185, 104951.
Alger, I. (2023). Evolutionarily stable preferences. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 378(1876), 20210505.
Alger, I., Dridi, S., Stieglitz, J., & Wilson, M. L. (2023). The evolution of early hominin food production and sharing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(25), e2218096120.
Toxvaerd, F., & Rowthorn, R. (2022). On the management of population immunity. Journal of Economic Theory, 204, 105501.
Toxvaerd, F. (2020). Herd immunity – crucial yet irrelevant. Bennett Institute for Public Policy, University of Cambridge.
Bromham, L., Dinnage, R., & Hua, X. (2016). Interdisciplinary research has consistently lower funding success. Nature, 534(7609), 684-687.

Why is academic research so siloed?

So, now what? the new podcast from Gates Cambridge, a leading scholarship programme for outstanding international postgraduates at the University of Cambridge.
 
Our guests are the scholars themselves - big thinkers from a range of different backgrounds and disciplines - who are out there finding solutions to some of our most wicked problems from the global economy and the environment, to technology, politics and universal healthcare.
 
They'll share their optimism and their experience, and give us a peek at their 'to do' lists too.  But they'll also be inviting the rest of us to join them - sharing 'So, now what?' actions that we can all apply today. 
 
Join me, Catherine Galloway, and a panel of Gates Cambridge scholars for conversations that lead to positive change. 
 
So, now what? with Gates Cambridge.  Available monthly on all your favourite podcast platforms.

Welcome to 'So, now what?'

In this episode, we explore how we can build back better after a crisis. What are the challenges and opportunities of addressing the climate crisis, including the need for climate justice, the costs of inaction, and the importance of green innovation. We consider the roles of governments, multilateral institutions, and grassroots movements play in driving change. And we conclude with a call to action, So, now what? Where we emphasise the need for coordinated international efforts and a just and equitable transition to a sustainable future.

Takeaways

Building back better after a crisis requires addressing climate justice and the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable communities.
The costs of climate change, both economic and social, are substantial and require urgent action.
Investment in clean energy and good jobs can drive economic growth and reduce carbon emissions.
Leveraging people power and social media can help raise awareness and drive change.
Green innovation and regulation are key to building a sustainable and equitable society.


Chapters

00:00 Introduction

04:21 Expertise and perspectives

06:50 The challenge of building back better

10:10 Understanding the costs and risks of climate change

14:25 Building back better in the United States

17:15 Building back better in Africa

19:25 The Need for collaboration and connectivity. Who needs to be in the same room?

25:45 Leveraging people power and innovation. How can we talk about green innovation and change the narrative? What does a better society look like?

31:00. So, now what? Moving Forward: Political will and financing.



Bios

Kamiar Mohaddes @KamiarMohaddes is an Associate Professor in Economics & Policy at the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge. His main areas of research include climate change, economics of the Middle East, energy economics and applied macroeconomics. He is currently a consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank and has previously served as a Departmental Special Advisor at the Bank of Canada, a consultant at the United Nations, a consultant at the Asian Development Bank and a regular visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund to name a few. 



Todd N. Tucker @toddntucker is a political scientist and director of Industrial Policy and Trade at the Roosevelt Institute, where he helps lead research on global governance, democracy, and the administrative state. A recognised expert on trade and political economy, Dr Tucker has testified before legislatures and expert committees around the world.  He is author of Judge Knot: Politics and Development in International Investment Law  (Anthem Press, 2018). He has authored over 70 major reports, including Fixing the Senate: Equitable and Full Representation for the 21st Century and Industrial Policy and Planning: What It Is and How to Do It Better.



Queen Chinyere Quinn is a Co-Founder and Partner at Kupanda Capital, an investment platform established to create, capitalise and scale pan-African companies. In this capacity, Queen has worked to provide tailored advice and support to entrepreneurs, project developers, fund managers and corporations operating in Africa. She has worked on deals in various sectors across Africa, including those in media, consumer and energy; and leads the platform on issues related to impact investing. Queen has helped to found several new companies and ventures, including Fraym, a geospatial data company and Nithio, an AI powered energy finance platform for the off-grid solar sector in Africa.

How do we build back better after a crisis?

Best-selling author Tara Westover, researcher Aliya Khalid and Thabo Msibi Deputy Vice Chancellor for Teaching and Learning at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, tackle the issue of what education should be for. They stress the idea that small actions can have a significant impact on making a difference in the world and emphasise the power of individuals to create change within their own sphere of influence. 

We explore their own perspectives and discuss their own powerful personal stories, highlighting the importance of diverse stories in education, the impact of education on women and gender and the power of education to challenge norms and beliefs. They also emphasise the role of education as a journey of self-discovery and unlearning, as well as a tool for social justice and empowerment. In addition, the episode discusses the need for curriculum reform and inclusivity, the role of technology in education and personal stories of overcoming educational challenges. 

Takeaways

Education as a lifelong journey of learning and personal growth.
Education has the power to empower individuals, promote social justice, and transform communities.
Listening to and learning from communities is crucial in developing effective educational practices.
Small acts of support and encouragement can make a significant difference in education.
Chapters

00:00 Introduction

00:31 The purpose of education

01:13 Guest introductions

05:24 Education and gender

06:24 Education as empowerment

08:21 The value of questioning and doubt in education

10:10 Education as a tool for social justice

12:56 Education in disadvantaged communities

15:17 The importance of listening and learning from communities

19:19 Personal teachable moments

20:14 Motivation for education

23:05 The transformative power of education

25:59 Unlearning and overcoming challenges in education

29:30 Curriculum reform and empowerment

31:40 Moving forward: Taking action in education

37:12 So, now what? 

Bios

Tara Westover @tarawestover is a memoirist and historian. Her first book, Educated (2018), debuted at #1 on the New York Times bestseller list, and was a finalist for a number of awards, including the National Book Critics Circle Award, the LA Times Book Prize, and the PEN/Jean Stein Book Award. The American Booksellers Association named it the Nonfiction Book of the Year, and to date, the book has been translated into 47 languages. For her staggering impact, TIME magazine named Westover one of the 100 Most Influential People of 2019, and in 2023, she was awarded the National Humanities Medal by President Biden. 

Thabo Msibi is the Deputy Vice Chancellor for Teaching and Learning and a professor of Curriculum Studies in the School of Education at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. Msibi has published research in South African and international journals and books and is author of the book Hidden sexualities of South African Teachers: Black male educators and same-sex desire. He has also co-edited a book entitled Gender, Sexuality and Violence in South African Educational Spaces, with Deevia Bhana and Shakila Singh. 

Aliya Khalid @khalidaliya1 is a Lecturer in Comparative and International Education in the Department of Education at the University of Oxford, UK. She works on issues of educational equity with a focus on gender. Her areas of interest include the capability approach, negative capability, epistemic paradoxicality and justice, Southern epistemologies, politics of representation and knowledge production.

What is education for?

Ellie Wolmark introduces part four of our Integrated Cancer Medicine: Research in Focus series. She talks to members of the CRUK Cambridge Centre about a diverse range of topics, including Dr Raj Jena to hear about his ground-breaking research, specifically the InnerEye project and how this amazing collaboration with Microsoft Cambridge has been brought into the clinic to benefit patients. Other topics include combining being a surgeon and a clinical researcher, Professor George Vassiliou talking about his research on clonal haematopoiesis and a new clinic that he has recently set up, as well as much, much more. As always you will hear discussions about research and research collaborations, the techniques that are being developed and how they translate to the clinic to affect patient treatments and outcomes.

Ellie is Communications Manager for Integrated Cancer Medicine at the University of Cambridge, UK, and the CRUK Cambridge Centre, UK.

Integrated Cancer Medicine: Research in Focus

Integrated Cancer Medicine: Research in Focus – Part four introduction

Dr Raj Jena talks about his research on analysis of the images used for radiotherapy planning and for modelling the effects and outcomes of radiotherapy treatment. As a clinician, he uses radiotherapy and drug treatments on patients with tumours in the brain or spine. He also talks about the InnerEye Project, a collaboration with Microsoft Cambridge, which uses algorithms to map and segment tumours from CT/MRI scans.

Raj is a Clinical Consultant and Radiation Oncologist at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, UK, and is a member of the CRUK Cambridge Centre at the University of Cambridge, UK.

Using AI to map tumours: The InnerEye Project

In this episode, Professors Grant Stewart and Stephen Price discuss what it means to be both a cancer surgeon and a clinical researcher. They talk about how they can improve surgery for brain and kidney cancer patients, how they can identify cancer as quickly as possible through screening, and how they can improve on the outcomes of surgery by augmenting it with other treatments such as radiotherapy and drugs.

Grant is co-lead of both the Institute for Integrated Cancer Medicine and the Urological Malignancies Virtual Institute at the CRUK Cambridge Centre, UK, and is Professor of Surgical Oncology in the Department of Surgery at the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

Stephen is co-lead of the Brain Cancer Virtual Institute at the CRUK Cambridge Centre, UK, and is Professor of Neurosurgical Oncology and Honorary Consultant Neurosurgeon at the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

Surgery and clinical research in cancer

In today's episode, Ellie Wolmark is joined by Professor George Vassiliou to talk about his research on clonal haematopoiesis and a new clinic that he has recently set up. We'll uncover what clonal haematopoiesis is and how it can sometimes lead to the development of blood cancer.

George is a CRUK Senior Clinical Fellow and Professor of Haematological Medicine at the University of Cambridge, UK. He is also a member of Faculty at the Wellcome-MRC Cambridge Stem Cell Institute and a Consultant Haematologist at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

Clonal haematopoiesis and using it to try to predict whether cancer will develop

Professor Jason Carroll speaks about his research in molecular oncology, with a focus on the work underpinning the PIONEER breast cancer trial and the outcomes of this clinical trial.

Jason is Professor of Molecular Oncology and Senior Group Leader at the CRUK Cambridge Institute, University of Cambridge, UK. He is also co-lead for the Precision Breast Cancer Virtual Institute at the CRUK Cambridge Centre, UK.

Molecular oncology research and the PIONEER breast cancer clinical trial

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to host Professor Stuart J. Russell (University of California, Berkeley) 

The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence

Abstract: The news media in recent months have been full of dire warnings about the risk that AI poses to the human race, coming from well-known figures such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. Should we be concerned? If so, what can we do about it? While some in the mainstream AI community dismiss these concerns, I will argue instead that a fundamental reorientation of the field is required.

Stuart Russell is one of the leading figures in modern artificial intelligence. He is a professor of computer science and founder of the Center for Intelligent Systems at the University of California, Berkeley. He is author of the textbook ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach’, widely regarded as one of the standard textbooks in the field. Russell is on the Scientific Advisory Board for the Future of Life Institute and the Advisory Board of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. 

The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence

Human-level (“general”) AI is more difficult to achieve than most people think. One key obstacle is relevance, a conceptual version of the frame problem. Another is lack of the semantic web. Yet another is the difficulty of computer vision. So artificial general intelligence (AGI) isn’t on the horizon. Possibly, it may never be achieved. No AGI means no Singularity.

Even so, there’s already plenty to worry about—and future AI advances will add more. Areas of concern include unemployment, computer companions, and autonomous robots (some, military). Worries about the (illusory) Singularity have had the good effect of waking up the AI community (and others) to these dangers. At last, they are being taken seriously.

Professor Margaret Boden is a world-leading academic in the study of intelligence, both artificial and otherwise. She is is Research Professor of Cognitive Science at the Department of informatics at the University of Sussex, where her work embraces the fields of artificial intelligence, psychology, philosophy, cognitive and computer science. She was the founding-Dean of Sussex University’s School of Cognitive and Computing Sciences, a pioneering centre for research into intelligence and the mechanisms underlying it — in humans, other animals, or machines. The School’s teaching and research involves an unusual combination of the humanities, science, and technology.

Professor Boden has also been an important participant in the recent international discussions over the long-term impacts of AI. She was a member of the AAAI’s 08/09 Presidential Panel on long-term AI futures (http://www.aaai.org/Organization/presidential-panel.php), and also took part in the recent Puerto Rico conference on the Future of AI, co-organised by CSER (http://futureoflife.org/misc/ai_conference); she is therefore uniquely well-placed to discuss near- and long-term prospects in AI. 

Human - Level AI- Is It Looming Or Illusory?

In the coming century, the greatest threats to human survival may come from our own technological developments. However, if we can safely navigate the pitfalls, the benefits that technology promises are enormous. A philosopher, an astronomer, and an entrepreneur have come together to form the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. The goal: to bring a fraction of humanity's talents to bear on the task of ensuring our long-term survival. In this lecture, Huw Price, Martin Rees and Jaan Tallinn will outline humanity's greatest challenge: surviving the 21st Century.

Professor Huw Price (University of Cambridge)
Lord Martin Rees (Astronomer Royal)
Jaan Tallinn (Co-founder of Skype) 

Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century

Will We Cause Our Own Extinction? Natural versus Anthropogenic Extinction Risks

How will humanity go extinct? Is it more likely to be from natural causes such as an asteroid impact or anthropogenic causes such as a nuclear war? Using the fossil record, we can place a rough upper bound on the probability of human extinction from natural causes: all natural causes put together have less than a 1% chance of causing human extinction each century, and probably less than 0.1%. In contrast, it is very difficult to put upper or lower bounds on the chance of extinction from anthropogenic causes. In this talk, Dr Toby Ord advance an argument that anthropogenic causes currently produce ten or more times as much extinction risk as the natural causes, and shows how this suggests that we should prioritise the reduction of anthropogenic extinction risks over natural ones.

About the speaker:

Toby Ord is a Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University & Oxford Martin School. He works on theoretical and practical questions concerning population ethics, global priorities, existential risk and new technologies, and recently contributed a report on Managing Existential Risk from Emerging Tehnologies to the Chief Scientific Advisor’s annual report for the UK government. Dr Ord’s concern for current and future generations also led him to found the orgnanisation Giving What We Can. 

Will We Cause Our Own Extinction?

Writers who speculate about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its attendant risks often caution against anthropomorphism, the tendency to ascribe human-like characteristics to something non human. An AI that is engineered from first principles will attain its goals in ways that would be hard to predict, and therefore hard to control, especially if it is able to modify and improve on its own design. However, this is not the only route to human-level AI. An alternative is to deliberately set out to make the AI not only human-level but also human-like. The most obvious way to do this is to base the architecture of the AI on that of the human brain. But this path has its own difficulties, many pertaining to the issue of consciousness. Do we really want to create an artefact that is not only capable of empathy, but also capable of suffering? 

Minds Like Ours: An Approach To AI Risk

“Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogens. How should we evaluate them, and what alternatives exist?”

Professor Derek Smith, Professor of Infectious Disease Informatics at Cambridge, gave a response.

Abstract: "A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are thought to be the best animal model for influenza infection. Novel, contagious, virulent viruses are potential pandemic pathogens in that their accidental or malevolent release into the human population could cause a pandemic. This talk will describe the purported benefits of such studies, arguing that these are overstated; estimate the magnitude of the risk they create, argue for the superiority of alternative scientific approaches on both safety and scientific grounds, and propose an ethical framework in which such experiments should be evaluated. The talk will also explore recent developments following the pause in funding for this research announced by the United States Government in October, and steps towards the risk-benefit analysis called for by the announcement"

Professor Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and the Director of the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. He is one of the founders of the Cambridge Working group, which calls for a “quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation” of gain of function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogen strains.

For more on the scientific debate, see “Gain-of-function experiments: time for a real debate”. 

Will We Cause Our Own Extinction?

University of Cambridge

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