This week on Policy, Guns and Money, we are delighted to be joined by Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former President of Estonia, for a conversation on Russia’s conflict in Ukraine.

ASPI’s Executive Director Justin Bassi asks Toomas about Western and NATO unity in support of Ukraine and the implications of the war for democracies and global security, including in the Indo-Pacific. They also discuss cyber challenges, lessons to be learned from the war and the long-term trajectory of the conflict. 

Guest bio: Toomas Hendrik Ilves served as the fourth President of Estonia from 2006 until 2016. Ilves worked as a diplomat and journalist, and he was the leader of the Social Democratic Party in the 1990s. He served in the government as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1996 to 1998 and again from 1999 to 2002. Later, he was a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2006.

Guests (in order of appearance): 
Justin Bassi: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/justin-bassi   
Toomas Hendrik Ilves: https://www.presidentilves.ee/bio 

Background music: "Deliverance" by Maarten Schellekens - via freemusicarchive.org

The Bigger Picture: Russia’s war in Ukraine with Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former Estonian President

Last week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attended the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders' Meeting in Cook Islands, where he and the Prime Minister of Tuvalu announced a major new agreement – the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union. In this episode, David Wroe speaks with the ABC’s foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic about the significance of the agreement, its strategic importance to competition with Beijing, how the deal was done, and whether it can be replicated with other Pacific island nations.
 
Shifting focus to Southeast Asia, the final interview from our Disruption and Deterrence series, which was recorded on the sidelines of ASPI’s major Defence conference earlier this year, focuses on the South China Sea. Euan Graham speaks with Ignacio Madriaga, Undersecretary for Strategic Assessment and Planning in the Philippines Department of National Defense. They discuss the challenges the Philippines faces from China in the South China Sea through four AIs – artificial islands, alternate interpretation of the rules-based order, aggressive interaction and ability to influence.
 
Guests:

David Wroe: 
https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Stephen Dziedzic: https://www.abc.net.au/news/stephen-dziedzic/166934
Euan Graham: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/euan-graham
Ignacio Madriaga

Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, Philippines and the South China Sea

In a special episode this week, ASPI's Director of Defence Strategy Bec Shrimpton speaks to Australia's Defence Space Commander, Air Vice Marshal Catherine Roberts, and Assistant Secretary of Strategic Plans in Defence Space Command, Jacinta Carroll.

Our guests detail the importance of the space domain and offer an update on the Defence Strategic Review and the role of space in Defence's integrated and focused force. They also discuss Defence Space Command's Joint Commercial Operation's announcement, as well as the role that industry plays in space in Australia and abroad.

Australia and space with Australia's Defence Space Commander

On this week’s episode, Justin Bassi speaks with Ian Hall, Professor of International Relations at Griffith University and a renowned India expert.
Justin and Ian discuss the recent Ministerial Dialogue between Australia and India in New Delhi – which was was only the second 2+2 dialogue between the two countries’ foreign and defence ministers.
They talk about the priority given to maritime security, the East and South China Seas, the Pacific and climate change. They also cover India’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East and India’s elections next year.

Music: "Long Walk" by Ketsa, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Professor Ian Hall on India, Australia, and the region

What do Australia’s parliamentarians think about cybersecurity and critical technology?

In this special episode, David Wroe speaks to ASPI Chair and former parliamentarian Gai Brodtmann about the landmark study she led which canvasses the views of parliamentarians on cyber security and critical technologies. They discuss the results of this ASPI study, including gaps in knowledge, differences of opinion and unexpected responses, and how policymakers can keep pace with technological developments that underpin all aspects of society, including areas such as health, infrastructure, defence and the economy.

Mentioned in this episode: 
https://www.aspi.org.au/report/what-do-australias-parliamentarians-think-about-cybersecurity-and-critical-technology

Guests: 
David Wroe: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Gai Brodtmann: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/ms-gai-brodtmann

Music: "Righteous" by Ketsa, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

How parliamentarians view cybersecurity and critical technology, with Gai Brodtmann

In today's episode:

Following the recent AI Safety Summit hosted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Bart Hogeveen speaks with the European Union's Senior Envoy for Digital to the United States Gerard de Graaf. They discuss the EU's approach to AI regulation and how it differs from the US and other governments. They also discuss which uses of AI the EU thinks should be limited or prohibited and why, as well as provide suggestions for Australia's efforts to regulate AI.

Finally, Alex Caples, speaks to Australian Federal Police (AFP) Commander Helen Schneider. They discuss the AFP and Monash University initiative 'My Pictures Matter’, which uses artificial intelligence to help combat child exploitation. They also explore the importance of using an ethically sourced database to train the AI tool that is used in the project, as well as outline how people can get involved in the campaign and help end child exploitation in Australia and overseas.

Mentioned in this episode: 
https://mypicturesmatter.org/

Guests:
Bart Hogeveen
Gerard de Graaf
Alex Caples
Helen Schneider

Music: "Think Different" by Scott Holmes, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

AI horizons: Navigating regulations, safety, and the use of AI

In this special three-part episode:

Alex Bristow speaks to Brigadier General Linell Letendre, the Dean of Faculty at the United States Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. They discuss the long-standing Australia-US cadet exchange programs and the importance of STEM in military education. They also discuss the repeal of the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy in the US, and how the culture has changed in the Air Force. Linell also discusses her use of the #warfighterscholar handle on social media, including what it means and aims to do. 

Next, Daria Impiombato interviews Irene Fellin, the NATO Secretary General's Special Representative for Women, Peace and Security. They discuss the Women, Peace and Security agenda, its role in the online space, and NATO’s role in advancing the priorities of the agenda. They also explore the dangers that female activists face today, and offer advice to young women considering a career in the field.

Finally, Daria speaks to Macarena Sáez, Executive Director of the Women’s Rights Division at Human Rights Watch. They discuss the connection between national security and human rights, as well as the current state of women's rights around the world. They also outline what Australia can do to promote women’s rights on the global stage, and explore how the erosion of women’s rights is often the first sign of a step towards authoritarianism. 

Mentioned in this episode: 
https://dppa.un.org/en/women-peace-and-security

Guests:

Alex Bristow
Brigadier General Linell Letendre  
Daria Impiombato
Irene Fellin 
Macarena Sáez

Music: "Long Walk" by Ketsa, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Air Force education, the WPS agenda and women’s rights

In this special three-part episode:

David Wroe speaks to economist, lawyer and author, Misha Zelinsky, about his new novel ‘The Sun Will Rise’, which is inspired by his experience covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Australian Financial Review. They discuss the overarching theme of the book and its characters, as well as the message Misha hopes people will take away from the book. They also discuss the latest developments in the war, the risk of war fatigue, and why democracies must continue to provide support to Ukraine. 

Next, Alex Bristow speaks to Dr Arzan Tarapore, South Asia research scholar at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Center and Senior Fellow at ASPI. They discuss the upcoming Quad Summit in India in 2024, the topics likely to be discussed, and how the diplomatic partnership has evolved over time. They also explore how the Quad complements existing minilateral partnerships, and whether the group should have a bigger focus on security.

Finally, David Wroe speaks to Jennifer Parker, the Director of Defence Policy at the Australian National University's National Security College, and Dr Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst in Defence Strategy and Capability at ASPI. They discuss Jennifer’s recent ASPI report ‘An Australian Maritime Strategy: Resourcing the Royal Australian Navy’ which calls for an urgent expansion of the Royal Australian Navy fleet to adequately protect Australia’s vast maritime interests. 

Mentioned in this episode: 

https://www.thesunwillrisebook.com/

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/australian-maritime-strategy


Guests:

David Wroe
Misha Zelinsky
Alex Bristow
Dr Arzan Tarapore
Jennifer Parker
Dr Malcolm Davis

Music: "Just Wondering" by Maarten Schellekens, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Ukraine, the Quad and an Australian maritime strategy

This week, David Wroe hosts a discussion on the latest from Myanmar, where the military regime that seized power in 2021 has recently enforced conscription amid plummeting military morale and steady pressure from armed resistance groups. ASPI’s Nathan Ruser and the Wilson Center’s Lucas Myers talk about how a range of opposition groups are making military gains, and where the civil conflict is likely to go in the coming months.

ASPI senior analysts Blake Johnson and Euan Graham join David Wroe to discuss geopolitics in the Pacific and what to expect in 2024. They dissect the significance of Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape’s recent visit to Canberra, Tuvalu’s election and Nauru’s switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

Guests: 

David Wroe: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Nathan Ruser: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/nathan-ruser
Lucas Myers: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/lucas-myers
Euan Graham: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/euan-graham
Blake Johnson: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/blake-johnson

Myanmar’s junta under pressure; geopolitics in the Pacific

This week, Dr Alex Caples speaks to Emily Harding from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies about offensive cyber operations and how to respond. They discuss how governments are integrating cyber operations with more traditional military planning, as well as responses to cyber-attacks, and how to deter in the cyber domain.

With more than 2 billion people in over 70 countries expected to vote this year, 2024 has been dubbed the year of elections. To explore election related foreign interference and disinformation, David Wroe speaks to Chris Zappone, the Digital Foreign Editor for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. They discuss the current state of the information environment, how it has evolved over time, and how social media and AI are being used to spread disinformation.

Guests:
Alex Caples: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/dr-alex-caples
Emily Harding: https://www.csis.org/people/emily-harding
David Wroe: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Chris Zappone: https://www.smh.com.au/by/chris-zappone-hve6u

Music: "Young and Free" by Jonas Hipper, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Offensive cyber operations; election integrity and disinformation

After more than five years, ASPI is saying goodbye to the Policy, Guns and Money podcast. 

With over 200 episodes featuring interviews with experts from around the world, we are pleased to have brought you discussions on so many important topics in security and foreign affairs and hope you have taken something away from our many interviews.  

The podcast has discussed defence capabilities and budgets, mis and disinformation, cyber and technology policy, Russia and Ukraine, climate, China, counterterrorism and extremism, peacekeeping and the Women, Peace and Security agenda. We’ve debated submarines and armoured vehicles, ransomware and AI, nuclear non-proliferation and how to counter issues such as foreign interference.  

We’ve also taken stock of Australia’s relationships across the globe, in the Pacific, Southeast and East Asia and with the United States and Europe - identifying opportunities and challenges and debating ideas for bilateral and multilateral collaboration. We’ve covered the Quad, including its elevation to leaders' level, AUKUS Pillar One and Two, and the importance of the United Nations and opportunities for reform.  

Thank you to all of our listeners and speakers, the many ambassadors, think tankers, current and former government officials, and voices from civil society and industry, there are too many great speakers to name.  

While we are saying goodbye to Policy, Guns and Money, stay tuned for ASPI’s new podcast, ‘Stop the World’, launching in the coming days. Follow the podcast on Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and take a listen to the trailer here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4HABcyghQUVyL3tdXqAtKR

Policy, Guns and Money – that’s a wrap!

Policy, Guns & Money is produced by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).  

ASPI is an independent, non-partisan think tank that produces expert and timely advice for strategic and defence leaders. ASPI has offices in Canberra, Australia and Washington DC, USA.

The Bigger Picture: Russia’s war in Ukraine with Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former Estonian President

ASPI Podcast: Policy, Guns & Money

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