What is the role of economic research in policy institutions? Having worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for over thirteen years, Galina Hale shares her insights on the cross-fertilisation between research and policy work. She discusses the use of economic research in the conduct of policy, being at the Fed during the global financial crisis, the sources of the European sovereign debt crisis and the future of the Euro, Brexit, and other issues at the nexus the nexus of macroeconomics and international finance. This conversation was recorded on 13 March 2019.

Disclaimer: All views expressed by Galina Hale are hers only and do not necessarily represent the opinions of anyone else associated with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System

Music credit: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Galina Hale, FRB San Francisco, on research and policy

How can we model for a change in the behaviour of economic agents over time? Junior Maih discusses how the development of models with regime switching has the potential to assist our understanding of macroeconomics and improve forecasting over standard constant parameter models. He also outlines some of the modelling pitfalls researchers may face and highlights the increasing importance of software as part of an economist’s toolkit.

The views expressed do not reflect those of the Norges Bank.

Music credit: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Junior Maih, Norges Bank, on structural change in models

How does a machine and human intelligence differ when they make economic forecasts? What are the key strengths and weaknesses in the macroeconomic models the Fed uses today?  Gianni Amisano, Chief of the Current Macroeconomic Conditions (CMC) Section at the Federal Reserve Board, explains how the right balance between man and machine depends on, amongst other things, whether we want point or density forecasts, the specific uncertainty we face, and how quickly we need to update our beliefs. Gianni also offers insights on the usefulness of the ‘rational expectations’ assumption and the merits of incorporating financial frictions into macroeconomic models.

Disclaimer: All views expressed by Gianni Amisano are his only and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve System.

Music credit: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Gianni Amisano, FRB Board of Governors, on models in policy

What should students know before applying for a Ph.D. in Economics? Do you have to get a Ph.D. in the US if your end goal is to work in Australia? In this podcast, Nigel McClung, a recent Ph.D. graduate and a young Research Economist at the Bank of Finland, shares his experiences, all the way from applying for the Ph.D. to navigating the job market process and what it is like to work in the Bank of Finland. He is joined by Professor Mariano Kulish, Dr Christopher Gibbs, and Dr Ye lu. The speakers in this episode, with their diverse backgrounds (three countries, varying levels of maths preparation before grad school, different research interests etc.) make for a rich and inspiring discussion relevant for students and young professionals alike.

Disclaimer: All views expressed by Nigel McClung are his only and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of Finland, or anyone else associated with the European System of Central Banks or the Governing Council of the ECB .

Music credit: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Nigel McClung, Bank of Finland, on the econ job market

Our guest is Andy Neumeyer, professor of economics at the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Argentina. He served as the chief economist at the central bank of Argentina from February 2016 to June 2018. His main fields of research are macroeconomics, international finance and development.

Music: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Professor Andy Neumeyer on policy in emerging markets

In this episode we explore the potential implications of the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the Australian economy. What is the scale of the expected slowdown in economic activity and is it more likely to look like a supply or demand-side shock? What can economic policymakers do to cushion against the impact of a global pandemic? More broadly, how can policymakers respond to dynamic events without access to definitive forecasts or timely statistics?  What policy instruments are best utilised in different scenarios, or when monetary policy in particular might be constrained? This conversation was recorded on 10 March 2020.

Music: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Benjamin Wong on the Coronavirus Crisis

In this episode we discuss the recent monetary policy response by the Reserve Bank of Australia in response to the COVID-19 crisis. On 18th March the Reserve Bank Board met for the second time in a month – only the second such unscheduled meeting in its history – to discuss a comprehensive package to support the Australian economy. The four main points of the package were: i) a reduction in the cash rate target to 0.25%, ii) a target on 3-year Australian Government Treasury bond yields of around 0.25%, iii) the creation of a term funding facility for the banking system – particularly focusing on small and medium-sized businesses, and iv) a shift in remuneration of exchange settlements balances at the RBA to 10 basis points. We discuss the implications and effectiveness of these policies during this period of volatility and uncertainty. We also discuss what the the zero lower bound means for Australia and how long we can expect to remain there. This conversation was recorded on 25 March 2020.

Music: https://www.purple-planet.com

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Bruce Preston on RBA's monetary policy in a time of crisis

In this episode we discuss the recent fiscal policy responses by the many federal governments, primarily Australia, in response to the COVID-19 crisis. In Australia there have been four major rounds of fiscal stimulus announced in March ranging from policies providing additional funds to those made redundant to guaranteeing loans, and the most recent “JobKeeper” program. Similar stimulus programs ranging from roughly 10 to 15 percent of GDP have been tabled in the UK, US and many economies. How persistent is this shock expected to be? How effective would we expect a fiscal response to be given the potential nature of this (demand) shock? In particular, what impact might we expect to see from the Australian government’s recent measures? Are the currently announced policies going to be enough to see us through the resulting downturn?

Panel: 
Professor Bruce Preston, The University of Melbourne
Professor James Morley, The University of Sydney
Professor Mariano Kulish, The University of Sydney
Associate Professor Aarti Singh, The University of Sydney
Dr Christopher Gibbs, The University of Sydney

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Global Perspectives Podcast with panel discussion of the fiscal policy response to the crisis

In this episode we address questions posed by our students relating to the COVID-19 crisis and associated policy responses.

Panel: 
Professor Bruce Preston, The University of Melbourne	
Professor James Morley, The University of Sydney
Professor Mariano Kulish, The University of Sydney
Associate Professor Aarti Singh, The University of Sydney
Dr Christopher Gibbs, The University of Sydney

Questions from our audience:

1.	Money doesn’t grow on trees, so who is paying for this income support? If it’s ‘future tax payers’, how does that actually happen? It's not like future tax payers are paying taxes, sticking cash in an envelope, and sending the money back to us in a time machine.
2.	What is the relevance of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) at the moment and should we be worried about the debt burden?  
3.	The JobKeeper payments are not means tested. Why might this policy have been chosen over a means tested policy, and what are the implications of not means-testing the payments?
4.	Can we just put rent and mortgages on ice? Pause rent, pause mortgages. Once the crisis is over we can start paying them again, but why not just pause all payments for now?
5.	Emerging economies don’t seem to have the same resources that more developed countries like Australia to provide stimulus. What can these countries do to reduce the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19? 
6.	Developing countries usually rely on the multilateral banks (IMF, World Bank) in times of economic crisis. Given the global scale of the pandemic, do these institutions have the resources necessary to support countries? What alternative measures can be taken?

Global Perspectives Podcast Panel Q&A on COVID-19 Crisis

In this episode we discuss a recent working paper exploring economic decisions during a pandemic with one of the authors, Dr Callum Jones. The authors incorporate features of SIR-type epidemiological models to an economic neoclassical-type model where informed agents make economic decisions in light of a developing pandemic. A social planning problem is then introduced to study what the optimal response is to the pandemic, and how this differs from the approach of individual agents. This conversation was recorded on 30 April 2020. The paper can be found at https://callumjones.github.io/files/covid.pdf

Global Perspectives Podcast with guest Callum Jones on a Macro Model with a Pandemic

We are a team of economists who explore economic policy from an evidence-based, global perspective. Our podcasts provide an opportunity for our team to discuss relevant issues in the analysis of economic policy with researchers from central banks, other policy organizations, and academics working on macroeconomic and trade policy-related research.

Global Perspectives Podcast Panel Q&A on COVID-19 Crisis

Global Perspectives Policy Podcast

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