The U.S. Treasury market had a volatile week, as Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating and lawmakers advanced a major fiscal policy bill. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains why investor attention has turned to long-duration debt and what it signals about concerns over deficits and debt sustainability.

Basis Points: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for Definitions of terms and indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/glossary

A Global Aversion for Long Duration

Following the softer than expected July jobs report, the money and bond markets have fully embraced the narrative that a Fed rate cut will be coming at the September FOMC meeting. In this episode, Kevin Flanagan gives his thoughts on the Treasury yield curves to watch and where they may be headed in the months ahead. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

Basis Points: Steeper Curves Ahead

What’s really happening inside the Fed? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan breaks down recent headlines around Chair Powell’s future, board reshuffling, and what it all could mean for upcoming policy decisions. With a rate cut in play, Kevin offers perspective on how the Fed operates, what could shape the next FOMC outcome, and why the data still leads the way.

Fed Watch: Independence & Filtering Out the Noise

How low can yields go and what comes next? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan unpacks the latest jobs report and what it signals for the Fed’s next move. With signs of labor market cooling, Kevin discusses the path ahead for Treasury yields and how a measured rate cut cycle could support a more stable, constructive environment for fixed income investors. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

Treasury Yields: How Low Can We Go?

As was widely expected, the Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut at today's FOMC meeting, bringing the new Fed Funds trading range down to 4%–4.25%. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains why the Fed’s next steps may hinge on how job growth evolves and whether inflation keeps creeping above target.  

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 
Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

Fed Watch: Will It Be Déjà vu All Over Again?

Where should fixed income investors look now that the Fed has resumed rate cuts? In this episode of Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains why Treasury Floating Rate Notes continue to stand out as a compelling option in today’s shifting interest rate landscape. Listen now for perspective on positioning portfolios in a lower-rate environment and why flexibility matters more than ever. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

Treasury FRNs Remain a Cornerstone Bond Strategy

With the government shutdown now stretching into its second week, key data releases have been delayed and uncertainty is rising. In this week’s episode of Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan shares how investors should interpret the lack of new economic data, and why the current backdrop differs from shutdowns of the past. Listen now for perspective on rates, risks, and what could come next. 
 
Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI (formerly the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index) provides a detailed look at the economy from a non-manufacturing standpoint.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employmentenvironment. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction while 50 indicates no change.




‘Flying Blind’ in the Shutdown?

Who’s next to lead the Fed? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan discusses the five candidates reportedly on the shortlist to succeed Chair Powell and what each pick could signal for monetary policy, rate changes and market confidence. Listen now to hear what may be on the horizon as the nomination process heats up.
Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Narrowing the Short List for Fed Chair

What if the labor market is turning a corner? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan discusses the “other side of the trade” asking whether the Fed and bond market may be underestimating the strength of the jobs picture. With recent Fed commentary focused on labor market risk, Kevin considers the possibility that we’ve already seen the softest prints and how that could shape the path forward for rates and investor expectations. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

What If: The Other Side of the Trade

As was widely expected, the Fed implemented a 25bp rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, bringing the new fed funds trading range down to 3.75%–4%. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan breaks down how labor market trends, inflation pressures and the Fed’s view of a “neutral” rate could shape the path forward in December and beyond.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now  

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary


Fed Watch: Risk Management Continues

Yields are hovering just above 4%, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to extend duration. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains why sticky inflation, a non-recessionary backdrop, and muted yield spreads argue for patience, not positioning long.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now  

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

Want to Go Long Duration? Not Recommended at This Time

Macro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.

Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

A Global Aversion for Long Duration

Basis Points by WisdomTree Asset Management