With the government shutdown now stretching into its second week, key data releases have been delayed and uncertainty is rising. In this week’s episode of Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan shares how investors should interpret the lack of new economic data, and why the current backdrop differs from shutdowns of the past. Listen now for perspective on rates, risks, and what could come next. 
 
Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI (formerly the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index) provides a detailed look at the economy from a non-manufacturing standpoint.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employmentenvironment. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction while 50 indicates no change.




‘Flying Blind’ in the Shutdown?

Who’s next to lead the Fed? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan discusses the five candidates reportedly on the shortlist to succeed Chair Powell and what each pick could signal for monetary policy, rate changes and market confidence. Listen now to hear what may be on the horizon as the nomination process heats up.
Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Narrowing the Short List for Fed Chair

What if the labor market is turning a corner? This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan discusses the “other side of the trade” asking whether the Fed and bond market may be underestimating the strength of the jobs picture. With recent Fed commentary focused on labor market risk, Kevin considers the possibility that we’ve already seen the softest prints and how that could shape the path forward for rates and investor expectations. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. 

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

What If: The Other Side of the Trade

As was widely expected, the Fed implemented a 25bp rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, bringing the new fed funds trading range down to 3.75%–4%. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan breaks down how labor market trends, inflation pressures and the Fed’s view of a “neutral” rate could shape the path forward in December and beyond.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now  

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary


Fed Watch: Risk Management Continues

Yields are hovering just above 4%, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to extend duration. This week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains why sticky inflation, a non-recessionary backdrop, and muted yield spreads argue for patience, not positioning long.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now  

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

Want to Go Long Duration? Not Recommended at This Time

It’s time to go back to basics with fixed income. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan, shares how tax-aware laddered bond strategies in both municipal and Treasury markets may help investors stay disciplined, diversify effectively, and managing after-tax income.

Back to Basics with Tax-Aware Laddered Bond Strategies

The latest market focus is back on the Fed, and a growing divide inside the FOMC. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan breaks down why policymakers are split on additional rate cuts ahead of the December meeting and what regional Fed presidents are signaling about inflation risks. With key labor data on deck, find out what could shape the Fed’s next move.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now  

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary


Fed Watch: A House Divided?

How can new hiring and the unemployment rate rise at the same time? In this episode of Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan explains the mechanics behind September’s seemingly contradictory jobs report, where strong payroll gains coincided with a higher jobless rate. He breaks down the two BLS surveys that drive these numbers, why they can diverge month to month, and what this dynamic means for the Fed as policymakers head into the December FOMC meeting with limited additional data.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Learn more: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now 

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

How Can New Hiring and the Unemployment Rate Rise at the Same Time?

Fed Watch: Recalibrating the “Recalibration”

The Fed’s divisions may run deeper than the official vote count suggests. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan unpacks the concept of “silent dissenters,” what the dot plot signals about rate cuts, and why a shifting FOMC could make future policy decisions even more data dependent.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent

Learn more:
https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/multimedia/basis-points-podcasts#Listen%20now

Please see the WisdomTree Glossary for additional definitions of terms and/or indexes:
https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/glossary

The Fed’s Silent Dissenters

Macro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.

Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

How Can New Hiring and the Unemployment Rate Rise at the Same Time?

Basis Points by WisdomTree Asset Management