Alaskans for Sustainable Budget's "The Weekly Top 3"

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 2, 2024.

This week our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the big story coming out of the Governor's proposed FY25 budget documents that we think others are missing (2:05); 2) we explain why we think Governor Dunleavy has just given up on trying to resolve the state's budget problems and violated state statutes to boot (17:11); and 3) given the state's fiscal outlook, we explain why we think the K-12 industry and many of the state's legislators are being irresponsible (35:06).

The Weekly Top 3 (1.2.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 8, 2024.

This week our top 3 issues are these: 1) while many say Railbelt energy will be a big issue this session, we explain why our hope is that the Legislature leaves it to market forces (2:08); 2) we explain what we think the recent Alaska jobs report is really saying about the economy (18:38); and 3) we discuss why we think the Kenai Peninsula Borough Assembly has become part of the problem we face in this state, not part of the solution(38:00).

The Weekly Top 3 (1.8.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 5, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why we think, as they develop fiscal policy, legislators have lost touch with the economics facing middle and lower-income (80% of) Alaska families (2:17); 2) while Governor Dunleavy seems to understand some of the issues facing middle and lower-income Alaska families, we explain why he is failing to do anything about it, but there are some signs that others may be (23:27); and 3) we explain why the discussion around Alaska fiscal policy is becoming Orwellian new-speak (37:45).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.5.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 12, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) while we liked the LegFin presentation to House Ways & Means last Wednesday on its fiscal model as far as it went, we explain why there's some important information critical to fashioning an overall fiscal plan still missing (2:13); 2) we explain why we have serious concerns that the Legislature is heading the wrong direction - and indeed, is starting to sound like Venezuela - in dealing with Cook Inlet gas (16:12); and 3) we explain why the current discussion about a General Obligation (GO) bond may be starting out as a good idea, but may quickly become bad (38:15).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.12.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 26, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss a recent tweet from former Governor Walker's chief of staff that explains why some are so strenuously opposed to constitutionalizing the PFD, even though doing so would be better for the overall Alaska economy and would lower the cost of government to 80% of Alaska families (2:24); 2) we discuss the continued growth of Alaska corporate welfare, funded by even deeper PFD cuts, and how even Republicans are engaged in it (16:30); and 3) we propose a tighter definition of the Cook Inlet gas issue in an effort to help identify the best solution, not just the most expedient one (35:14).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.26.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 18, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain the hypocrisy of those voting on Monday to override the Governor's veto of SB 140 (2:09); 2) we discuss our disappointment in the #akleg reaction to the Spring Forecast (among many it was "yippee, more money to spend") (18:52); and 3)we discuss a big thing that's likely to hit Alaska right between the eyes in the same brief time going forward as we've been in the 21st Century looking back (35:51).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.18.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 25, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss our take on the House Finance Committee's draft budget (2:11); 2) we explain why we believe the Regulatory Commission of Alaska and the Department of Natural Resources have frontline responsibility for dealing with the Cook Inlet situation and the legislature should only get involved after the agencies have scoped the problem (18:06); and 3) we explain why, if anyone has too much power under the Constitution on fiscal matters, it is the Legislature (39:32).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.25.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 1, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why it appears Republicans on the House Finance Committee have given up on both "following the law" and trying to restrain spending ( 2:08); 2) we discuss how, just like the Democrats have, Governor Dunleavy has started pushing spending without addressing who is supposed to pay for it (20:26); and 3) we explain the fundamental and troubling inconsistency in Enstar's recent statements about the Cook Inlet gas market (38:31).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.1.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets — for the week of April 8, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the operating budget as it passed from House Finance, including how the FY25 PFD is being jerry-rigged by taking money from FY24 (2:09); 2) we look at a timeline for Cook Inlet gas supply to explain why concerns about the impact of LNG imports are being overblown (19:49); and 3) we discuss an upcoming debate hosted by Alaska Common Ground on the PFD in which we and others are participating (38:22).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.8.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 15, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what the debate last week on the House floor on HJR 7 tells us about future efforts to develop a durable fiscal policy for the state (2:15); 2) we explain what we believe our debate last week at the Alaska Common Ground event about the future of the PFD says about the current status of that discussion (14:06); and 3) we discuss what we anticipate the focus will be ofour discussion with John Sims of Enstar about Cook Inlet gas this coming Friday on an Alaska Landmine livestream (30:30).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.15.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 22, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain our significant concerns about the recent passage by House Ways & Means of a bill cutting the state's corporate income tax rate (2:05); 2) now that it is clear the Governor's carbon bills aren't going to produce the revenues he anticipated, we ask when he is going to offer a realistic fiscal plan (19:20); and 3) we discuss what we learned from our debate last week with John Sims of Enstar about Cook Inlet gas (36:29).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.22.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of May 6, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we assess where this year's budget cycle is leaving us as we look forward to the years ahead (2:03); 2) we look at this session's discussions around Cook Inlet gas and explain why it's mostly involved going in circles while the market moves ahead (19:44), and 3) we describe who we think are Alaska's super-socialists - those who benefit most from the state's flow of "free money" (36:43).

The Weekly Top 3 (5.6.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of May 13, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we look at Hilcorp's recent, way over-the-top response to the proposal to close their unique loophole in the Alaska oil tax code (2:05); 2) we discuss what we see as the common theme underlying the current problems at both AIDEA and the Permanent Fund Board (20:14), and 3) we discuss whether there are any lessons from the Fairbanks Prop A election that can be applied statewide (38:13).

The Weekly Top 3 (5.13.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of June 3, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why the fiscal future the state is facing is far different from what some think it is (2:10); 2) we discuss our initial reaction to how the upcoming legislative races are shaping up (18:53); and 3) we explain why, like the Alaska Public Utilities Commission was in the late 1990s, we believe the current Permanent Fund Board must be sunset and replaced with a restructured approach (39:29).

The Weekly Top 3 (6.3.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of June 17, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why, on fiscal matters, "bipartisanship" generally is becoming a dirty word at both the federal and state levels (2:13); 2) we discuss the concept of revenue design and why one of the objectives of the proposed Anchorage sales tax is actually a positive from the perspective of fiscal policy (20:09); and 3) we explain why a quote from one of the stories on Cook Inlet gas summarizes the issue well: "Someone should probably do something," and discuss who that someone should be and what they should be doing. (37:09).

The Weekly Top 3 (6.17.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 1, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we examine the sum total of the Dunleavy budget legacy so far: spending growth, no fiscal plan and PFD cuts (2:00); 2) we explain how the Permanent Fund Corporation is trying to manipulate Alaskans and why it no longer can be trusted (18:08); and 3) we explain how the Hilcorp tax loophole keeps growing and what that means for the state (35:00).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.1.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 8, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what the true "opportunity costs" are of PFDcuts (2:13); 2) we explain why assuming state revenues from oil follow oil production volumes is wrong (19:10); and 3) we explain why KTUU's recent "man on the street" question about the PFD is misleading (36:10). At the end of the third segment, Michael and I also have a brief discussion about the significance of the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to abandon judicial deference to federal agency actions (a reversal of the so-called "Chevron doctrine").

The Weekly Top 3 (7.8.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 5, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how a recent ADN editorial board op-ed advocates for a fiscal future that, if successful, would largely undermine former Governor Jay Hammond's vision for Alaska (2:15); 2) we explain how the Permanent Fund Corp and others are manufacturing a fake earnings reserve crisis and why Alaska's press seems to be buying it hook, line & sinker (18:59); and 3) we explain why many of Alaska's so-called progressives are just the latest incarnation of the old Limousine Liberals (36:51).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.5.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 12, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss whether the Alaska economy is on an up- or down-swing (2:17); 2) we discuss the significance of global LNG supplier Excelerate's recent announcement that they are in advanced discussions to bring LNG to southcentral Alaska (19:43); and 3) we explain why we think the proposal to merge the two Permanent Fund accounts - the corpus and the earnings reserve - into a single account should become an election issue (36:17).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.12.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 19, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how, after draining the Statutory Budget Reserve, the Constitutional Budget Reserve and a large part of the PFD, some are positioning to come after the Permanent Fund corpus (2:19); 2) we discuss what the Alaska oil & gas industry is NOT telling Alaskans about the next ten years (17:30); and 3) we explain why, while they make claims that they are, those pushing for increased K-12 spending really don't care about middle and lower-income Alaska families (36:26).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.19.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 2, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how some legislative candidates have become so focused on being pro-oil that they have lost focus on being pro-Alaskan (2:15); 2) on the opposite end of the political spectrum, we explain how some so-called progressive candidates have become so focused on increasing government spending they are pushing revenue approaches that hurt the very working Alaska families they claim to be protecting (18:19); and 3) we explain how those pushing Cook Inlet gas are increasingly ignoring market reality and, in the process, looking more and more like those who pushed the Alaska barley and dairy projects of the late 1970s and 1980s (36:31).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.2.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets — for the week of September 16, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we look into the numbers behind the latest #AKLNG proposal and explain why they raise more questions than they answer (2:15); 2) we discuss the arguments the Big Government Republicans are using in their attempt to maintain control over who benefits from — and who pays the bill for — government spending (19:32); and 3) we discuss the ongoing effort by some to Orwellianize the PFD by changing the words they use to describe it to camouflage their inability to change the underlying statute (35:13).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.16.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 16, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how the data demonstrates the real driver of Alaska outmigration is faltering Alaska household income, which increased spending using PFD cuts only makes worse (2:14); 2) we look at this year’s PFD cut and the impact of the Legislature’s not-so-secret revenue approach of “the less you make, the more we take” (19:20); and 3) we explain why if Larry Persilly is genuinely concerned about “tax unfairness” he should focus even more on the Legislature than he has the Governor (37:14).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.23.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 30, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how those justifying PFD cuts on the basis it's "free money" in reality are just trying to direct it into their pockets instead (2:06); 2) we explain the fundamental hypocrisy of many pushing for increased K-12 spending (18:25); and 3) we explain how Jesse Bjorkman has become so desperate to avoid defending his own record, he's taken to lying about others (36:48).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.30.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets — for the week of October 7, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how Republican legislative candidates have hamstrung themselves this election cycle (2:05); 2) we discuss how those candidates who continue to press for Cook Inlet gas subsidies are proposing to set the state backward economically (17:29); and 3) we discuss the message being sent by some shifts in ownership of North Slope oil assets (37:39).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.7.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of October 14, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the question legislators don't want constituents to ask: is the legislator willing to put their own money where their mouth is (2:14); 2) we explain why, to quote the late Yogi Berra, it's beginning to feel like "deja vu all over again" on the K-12 debate (17:28); and 3) Michael and I have an extended discussion on the issue of federal tax cuts, which is coming back around again for discussion with the coming expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (38:08).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.14.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of October 21, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) whether the Governor's focus on data centers is a last-minute Hail Mary in support of the AKLNG project and, if so, whether its a good one (2:14), 2) Larry Persily's most recent column and why we think it's hypocritical in not applying a similar standard to the state budget (17:28), and 3) some interesting developments in both the Kenai and Fairbanks legislative races and why we think they are significant (38:08).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.21.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of October 28, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the broader implications of a recent op-ed in the ADN about the impact of government picking winners and losers (2:06), 2) we explain why those claiming to be "fighting for" Alaska families and the Alaska economy are in fact doing the reverse - undermining Alaska families and economy - when it comes to the revenue side (12:25), and 3) we explain the irony of Governor Dunleavy and others pushing for AIDEA to spend even more on - let's be honest, useless - ANWR leases (34:14).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.28.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of November 4, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we ask whether the four business leaders writing a recent op-ed claiming that SB21 in its current form is still working for Alaska families even looked at the data first (spoiler alert: it's not) (2:31), 2) we explain why Jake Metcalfe's recent op-ed has it exactly backward: it's the current use of PFD cuts to fund government that puts the fiscal burden onto the backs of working Alaska families; by massively broadening the base, Ben Carpenter's proposal would reduce it significantly (17:13), and 3) we explain why, one way or the other, the coming Legislature will have to deal with campaign finance reforms, and our view on what they should do when they confront it (34:56).

The Weekly Top 3 (11.4.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of November 11, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why we characterize the new House Coalition as a "bipartisan plutocracy" - government by the wealthy for the wealthy (2:11), 2) we explain why President Trump's recent video hasn't changed our skepticism of the Alaska LNG project (21:18), and 3) we discuss the internal inconsistency of the Trump energy policy - by making the oil & gas industry stronger, it may make prices and, with that, Alaska, among others, much weaker (39:19).

The Weekly Top 3 (11.11.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of November 18, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what Alaskans realistically should expect from the Trump Administration on resource development (2:07), 2) we discuss the coming legislative budget cycle and, based on the current oil outlook, what legislators will be facing when they arrive in Juneau next January (20:15), and 3) we use a recent report on where Alaskans are migrating to help make our point about how to help curb it (33:45).

The Weekly Top 3 (11.18.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 2, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the outlook for the state's fiscal situation that likely will be reflected in the upcoming fall 10-year revenue forecast and budget plan (2:07), 2) in light of the likely severe fiscal restraints the state will be facing, we consider the outlook for the upcoming legislative session (17:50), and 3) we explain why the recent sales pitch for the Alaska LNG Phase I project fails to convince and where we should be focusing instead (38:32).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.2.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 9, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why the "simple answer" some claim solves Alaska's outmigration issue is, in fact, a significant reason we are in a death spiral in the first place (2:17), 2) we explain why the Alaska LNG Phase I project, as discussed in the Wood Mackenzie report, isn't a "private sector" project, but, in fact, a proposal that is already heavily subsidized by the state (14:51), and 3) we ask, where the heck is the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA) on the Southcentral energy issue. The statutes say they should be at the center of it, but when we look around, they are nowhere to be found (35:32).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.9.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 16, 2024, our last show of 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why, by completely ignoring an important statute, Dunleavy is failing in his responsibility to "protect the economic stability of the state" (2:25), 2) we discuss our big takeaway from the Fall Revenue Sources Book: while producers clearly are benefitting from SB 21, the statute is failing miserably to allocate a fair share of revenues to the state (19:48), and 3) we look at recent developments in the Cook Inlet, where Enstar is openly seeking a state subsidy to reduce its gas costs but Chugach Electic commendably is moving forward with market solutions (37:56).

And as befits an end-of-year show, after we finish those, Michael and I add one more segment to briefly summarize what we see as the biggest issue facing the state at the end of 2024 as we look ahead to the beginning and upcoming session of 2025 (55:35).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.16.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of August 20, 2018.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) our final thoughts on the primary and the issues we see emerging for the general (at 4:30), (2) our first thoughts on oil taxes (which we anticipate will emerge as an important topic this fall) (16:55), and(3) Sen Dan Sullivan argued that the fed tax cuts would pay for themselves -- how's that going so far as some start to talk about Tax Reform 2.0 (26:10).

Brad Keithley

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