Alaskans for Sustainable Budget's "The Weekly Top 3"

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week - for the week of March 8, 2021.

This week at Michael's request our Top 3 becomes a Top 4. These are the issues : 1) LegFin's presentation to the Senate Finance Committee last week was great as far as it went, but it had one huge hole (2:12); 2) an op-ed piece in Republican mouthpiece MustRead Alaska signals a deepening split among fiscal conservatives (18:19); 3) why the latest round of federal relief eliminates the need for Gov Dunleavy's supplemental PFD (30:58); and 4) we explain where the spending cuts would need to be made if the Governor (or legislature) was going to try to balance the budget entirely, or even mostly, through "cuts only" (35:20).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.8.2021)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of May 31, 2021.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: 1) why the numbers 11 and 6 are key in resolving the budget (1:52); 2) last week's evolution of the discussion around SJR 6 and what its going to take to constitutionalize the PFD (20:37); and 3) why, although the new oil field announcement from Pantheon Resources contains big numbers, its all about the financing (31:00).

The Weekly Top 3 (5.31.2021)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of June 5, 2023.

This week our top 3 issues are these: 1) the #BigLie the Top20% keep spreading about the impact of various fiscal options on Alaska families and the economy (2:09); 2) what the Governor could do in handling the FY24 budget that would help protect the PFD and restore some balance to the fiscal discussion (17:52); and 3) why Hilcorp's $100 million tax bonus on top of the SB21 incentives is undeserved and bad policy (29:33).

The Weekly Top 3 (6.5.2023)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 18, 2023.

This week - our last of the year and what Michael calls the Holiday edition - is a little different from the others. Instead of our usual approach, we pick three topics that are in keeping with the Christmas and Holiday spirit. 

This year, they are these: In the first segment, we talk about our favorite Christmas plays, concerts & movies (2:08); in the second, we discuss our most memorable Christmas presents (18:53), and in the last, we discuss things we have thought about doing for New Years, but haven't yet (35:43).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.18.2023)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 18, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain the hypocrisy of those voting on Monday to override the Governor's veto of SB 140 (2:09); 2) we discuss our disappointment in the #akleg reaction to the Spring Forecast (among many it was "yippee, more money to spend") (18:52); and 3)we discuss a big thing that's likely to hit Alaska right between the eyes in the same brief time going forward as we've been in the 21st Century looking back (35:51).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.18.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 15, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what the debate last week on the House floor on HJR 7 tells us about future efforts to develop a durable fiscal policy for the state (2:15); 2) we explain what we believe our debate last week at the Alaska Common Ground event about the future of the PFD says about the current status of that discussion (14:06); and 3) we discuss what we anticipate the focus will be ofour discussion with John Sims of Enstar about Cook Inlet gas this coming Friday on an Alaska Landmine livestream (30:30).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.15.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of May 6, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we assess where this year's budget cycle is leaving us as we look forward to the years ahead (2:03); 2) we look at this session's discussions around Cook Inlet gas and explain why it's mostly involved going in circles while the market moves ahead (19:44), and 3) we describe who we think are Alaska's super-socialists - those who benefit most from the state's flow of "free money" (36:43).

The Weekly Top 3 (5.6.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 1, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we examine the sum total of the Dunleavy budget legacy so far: spending growth, no fiscal plan and PFD cuts (2:00); 2) we explain how the Permanent Fund Corporation is trying to manipulate Alaskans and why it no longer can be trusted (18:08); and 3) we explain how the Hilcorp tax loophole keeps growing and what that means for the state (35:00).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.1.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 29, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the movement we are (finally) seeing from Southcentral utilities on gas supplies (2:10); 2) we discuss another bad week for the Permanent Fund Board and how the new Chairman made the case even stronger for replacing and restructuring the Board (24:01); and 3) we explain why the new childcare (or any type of) tax credits are worse than subsidies (39:19).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.29.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of November 18, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what Alaskans realistically should expect from the Trump Administration on resource development (2:07), 2) we discuss the coming legislative budget cycle and, based on the current oil outlook, what legislators will be facing when they arrive in Juneau next January (20:15), and 3) we use a recent report on where Alaskans are migrating to help make our point about how to help curb it (33:45).

The Weekly Top 3 (11.18.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of June 16, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss where we believe oil prices are likely headed and how Alaska could reduce the fiscal roller coaster the state's current budget approach creates (2:09); 2) we discuss one issue that we believe should be at the heart of the coming education task force and its subsequent recommendations (17:41); and 3) we examine what a recent decision by JERA - Japan's largest LNG importer - means for Alaska LNG (37:39).

The Weekly Top 3 (6.16.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 14, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) while the OBBA increases access to potential new oil fields on federal lands, we discuss whether it will actually result in new development and, more importantly, additional state revenues (2:17), 2) we discuss the fundamental economic issue we believe the candidates for Governor need to address in the coming election cycle (21:20), and 3) we explain why we think one journalist should listen to himself and follow his own advice that he recently gave in an op-ed piece (36:01).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.14.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 21, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the significant state revenue downside of Conoco's - and others' - new exploration programs (2:07), 2) we explain, contrary to the hope of some, why the gas pipeline is not a "fix" to Alaska's broken financial foundation (17:37), and 3) we discuss how the OBBA may make state level K-12 funding issues even more complicated (37:57).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.21.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of July 28, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how a recent op-ed demonstrates why some legislators seem not to grasp how Alaska oil taxes work (2:15), 2) we explain why Sen. Shelley Hughes potentially has a significant leg up on fiscal issues over other candidates in the coming Governor's race (20:49), and 3) we explain why we think, with one exception, a recent op-ed by Kevin McCabe makes a significant contribution toward understanding the K-12 issue (38:40).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.28.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 4, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how the votes on the veto override do much to explain the state's deep fiscal problems (2:15); 2) we discuss again, whether they realize it or not, how those advocating for a one-account Permanent Fund approach are pushing to create a back door into the Permenent Fund corpus (24:13); and 3) we explain why, whether he intended to or not, Rep. Bill Elam has suggested a helpful way to exercise better control over K-12 spending (35:41).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.4.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 11, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) the Anchorage business community says they are concerned about the economy but at the same time they push the revenue option that has the "largest adverse impact" on it (2:15); 2) we explain why the next rounds of K-12 funding growth should come from increased local contribution (18:08); and 3) we explain why those pushing the "one account" approach to "protect" the Permanent Fund are, in fact, opening the door for raids on it (39:26).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.11.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 18, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why the EIA's new oil price forecast suggests Alaska is on the precipice of slipping back into a steep, deficit-driven budgetary position for the remainder of FY26 and into FY27 (campaign year 2026) (2:16); 2) we explain why the growing problem with Social Security is likely to have a significant impact on Alaska (21:44); and 3) we explain how a recent proposal from the FNSB would only make the state's K-12 funding issue even worse (41:88).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.18.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of August 25, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss some recent comments by Speaker Edgmon about the economic strains being felt by Alaska's coastal communities and explain why, in certain real respects, they are being self-inflicted by the Legislature (2:28); 2) we start a new, occasional series by explaining the "rest of the story" surrounding some recent campaign comments by Adam Crum and Tom Begich (20:02); 3) we remember Stephen Haycox and the lessons about Alaska we learned from him and will continue to learn as we and others continue to read the rich legacy that he has left with us (33:01); and finally, in some brief comments at the end, we give a shout out to Sen. Mike Cronk for some comments he made at this week's opening meeting of the Education Task Force (47:42).

The Weekly Top 3 (8.25.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 1, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain, using the Permanent Fund Corporation's own numbers, how its high-cost "active asset management" program is failing Alaskans by badly underperforming even its own Passive Index Benchmark (2:25); 2) we explain why we applaud Senator Mike Cronk's point that developing a successful K-12 funding plan is contingent on first developing an overall, solid fiscal plan for the state (18:45); and 3) we explain how the recent op-ed's from gubernatorial candidates Click Bishop and Tom Begich blatantly ignore the central issue facing the next Governor: the huge and continuing current law budget deficits the state is projected to run over the next decade (37:12).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.1.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 8, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss Sen. Robb Myers recent op-ed in the Alaska Landmine, which explains that the proposal to change the current two-account Permanent Fund system to a one-account system is really about protecing state revenues, not protecting the Permanent Fund (2:24); 2) we dive into the state's new fiscal analysis of the Pikka oil field and what the numbers are telling us about SB 21 (19:21); and 3) we explain how, by not looking at the numbers, Must Read Alaska is missing the big story behind the performance of the Permanent Fund Corporation (39:14).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.8.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 15, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why a recent op-ed by Senator Cathy Giessel proposes to make Alaska's fiscal situation even worse than it already is (2:22); 2) we review recent data from the Department of Revenue that is telling us production taxes remain broken even well beyond the current 10-year revenue forecast (19:54); and 3) while the recent headlines are interesting, we explain what information we and other industry observers are really waiting for about the AKLNG project (37:29).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.15.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 22, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why we think the Alaska media has completely whiffed on this year's real PFD story (2:10); 2) we explain why the North Slope renaissance isn't producing the benefits for Alaskans they were led to expect (16:31); and 3) we discuss what the termination of the Santos/ADNOC deal likely means for Santos' Alaska Pikka project (35:50).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.22.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of September 29, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss Alaska's K-shaped economy and how it helps explain outmigration (2:06); 2) we explain the parts of the story that the Permanent Fund Corp's claims about a "successful" FY25 ignore (18:11); and 3) we discuss why op-eds proposing new or continued spending should come with a fiscal note (38:23).

The Weekly Top 3 (9.29.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of October 6, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how the current candidates for Governor have lost sight of former Governor Jay Hammond's vision for Alaska that put Alaska families first (2:05); 2) we explain how some in the oil industry are trying to rewrite the history behind SB21 (21:21); and 3) we discuss how Governor Dunleavy is failing to do his part to help resolve the state's fiscal problems (39:35).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.6.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of October 13, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss EIA's most recent oil price forecast, why the oil futures market is starting to trend the same way, and what that means for Alaska's fiscal situation (2:12); 2) we explain how all of the enthusiasm over the Ambler road and other new projects could end up causing even deeper PFD cuts (16:02); and 3) we explain how Jon Faulkner's Permanent Fund inflation-proofing argument in Must Read Alaska undermines both the current two-account system and the PFD (35:39).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.13.2025)

During our day guest hosting the Tom Anderson Show we talk to Cody Rice from global oil & gas consulting group Wood Mackenzie about the current global LNG market and #AKLNG's place in it.

Interview with Cody Rice, Wood Mackenzie (7.26.2018)

During our day guest hosting the Tom Anderson Show we talk to Maya MacGuineas, the President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (#BudgetHawks)about the current federal fiscal situation, the status of Social Security and ways that Alaskans can be involved in finding solutions.

Interview with Maya MacGuineas, President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (7.26.2018)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 for the week of July 30, 2018, our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1) The coming fiscal tsunami facing state & local governments across the nation, including Alaska (& why HB 331 -- the oil credit bonding bill -- is part of Alaska's share of the problem)(at 2:30), (2) our view on whether the Alaska economy is getting better or just worse at a slower rate (28:30), and (3) our thoughts on the critical fiscal issues facing Alaskans three weeks out from the primary (39:05).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.30.2018)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of October 29, 2018.

This week our Top 3 are these: (1) our view of the MOST important piece of preserving the #PFD and where the two remaining candidates for Governor stand on the issue (at 3:00), (2) why, contrary to what some claim, new oil developments on the North Slope aren't a solution to Alaska's fiscal situation (22:45), and (3) once again we explain why #akleg races are soooo damned important to the #PFD & budget (31:06).

The Weekly Top 3 (10.29.2018)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of December 17, 2018. For those that follow, this is our final podcast of 2018. We will resume the week of January 7, 2019.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: (1)  our thoughts on the Dunleavy Administration's revenue forecast and budget proposal (at 2:00); (2) our view of what the new Dunleavy Administration should be doing with the #AKLNG project (19:47); and (3) what the 2017 federal tax cut, 2018 spending bill & resulting huge federal deficit mean for the U.S. economy in the coming year (27:00). And then at the end, because this is our last segment of 2018, Michael asks for our final thoughts on 2018 and how we see the playing field in the New Year (31:40).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.17.2018)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of April 8, 2019.

This week our Top 3 issues are these: 1) the House Finance Committee's proposed budget and things to watch as it moves to the floor (at 1:38), 2) why both SJR6, the Governor's proposed spending cap, and the Senate Finance Committee's version of the same, are ineffective as written, and what changes are needed as a result (23:36), and 3) our thoughts on the Senate Finance Committee's proposed PFD bill (30:43).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.8.2019)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week — for the week of July 15, 2019.

This week our Top 3 are these: 1) HB 2001, the House Finance Committee's hot off the presses troubling proposal to go down the same road again as we've just finished (at 1:45); 2) our concerns with rumors of a PFD "compromise" - it can't just be the PFD (20:30); and 3) by delaying the inevitable, the University's Board of Regents is making the situation worse (37:56).

The Weekly Top 3 (7.15.2019)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week - for the week of June 15, 2020.

This week our Top 3 are these: 1) two from the Top20% argue "don't tax me, don't tax my industry, tax middle & lower income Alaska families instead," our reaction (1:52); 2) oil prices are stabilizing and Conoco is restoring ANS production, what does that mean for Alaska's finances (17:58); and 3) even the News Miner is calling for reduced spending, what we think that means (24:14).

The Weekly Top 3 (6.15.2020)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind this week - for the week of September 21, 2020.

This week our Top 3 are these: 1) we dive into the "glide path" approach some have advocated for dealing with Alaska's current fiscal situation (1:46), 2) we explain why we believe Commonwealth North's new Alaska Fiscal Game misleads (23:17), and 3) we outline what a recent Congressional Budget Office report tells us about where the federal fiscal situation is headed (28:50). (For those interested in a deeper dive on the third segment, a video of the Concord Coalition presentation we discuss is at https://youtu.be/eVvdoV6vojM.)

Brad Keithley

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