Alaskans for Sustainable Budget's "The Weekly Top 3"

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of November 18, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what Alaskans realistically should expect from the Trump Administration on resource development (2:07), 2) we discuss the coming legislative budget cycle and, based on the current oil outlook, what legislators will be facing when they arrive in Juneau next January (20:15), and 3) we use a recent report on where Alaskans are migrating to help make our point about how to help curb it (33:45).

The Weekly Top 3 (11.18.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 2, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the outlook for the state's fiscal situation that likely will be reflected in the upcoming fall 10-year revenue forecast and budget plan (2:07), 2) in light of the likely severe fiscal restraints the state will be facing, we consider the outlook for the upcoming legislative session (17:50), and 3) we explain why the recent sales pitch for the Alaska LNG Phase I project fails to convince and where we should be focusing instead (38:32).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.2.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 9, 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why the "simple answer" some claim solves Alaska's outmigration issue is, in fact, a significant reason we are in a death spiral in the first place (2:17), 2) we explain why the Alaska LNG Phase I project, as discussed in the Wood Mackenzie report, isn't a "private sector" project, but, in fact, a proposal that is already heavily subsidized by the state (14:51), and 3) we ask, where the heck is the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA) on the Southcentral energy issue. The statutes say they should be at the center of it, but when we look around, they are nowhere to be found (35:32).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.9.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of December 16, 2024, our last show of 2024.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why, by completely ignoring an important statute, Dunleavy is failing in his responsibility to "protect the economic stability of the state" (2:25), 2) we discuss our big takeaway from the Fall Revenue Sources Book: while producers clearly are benefitting from SB 21, the statute is failing miserably to allocate a fair share of revenues to the state (19:48), and 3) we look at recent developments in the Cook Inlet, where Enstar is openly seeking a state subsidy to reduce its gas costs but Chugach Electic commendably is moving forward with market solutions (37:56).

And as befits an end-of-year show, after we finish those, Michael and I add one more segment to briefly summarize what we see as the biggest issue facing the state at the end of 2024 as we look ahead to the beginning and upcoming session of 2025 (55:35).

The Weekly Top 3 (12.16.2024)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 6, 2025, our first of the new year.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we examine the effort by some, rather than focus on the endless string of deficits he is leaving behind, to reshape the "Dunleavy legacy" into one of even greater government spending (2:17), 2) we explain how, as the clock continues to run down, all of the posturing and discussion around Cook Inlet gas is getting us nowhere closer to a real solution (15:58), and 3) we discuss how, rather than shrinking in the face of budget reality, the proposed spending list for the coming legislature is actually growing (35:27).

The Weekly Top 3 (1.6.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 13, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss whether the legislature should fund the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's "Hail Mary" to keep the #AKLNG project alive for yet another year (2:20), 2) to complement the Department of Labor's recent analysis of Alaska's population, we look at IRS data to examine where the drain in Alaska's working age population is by income bracket (18:54), and 3) we explain why the energy "royalty relief" touted by some as a solution to the Cook Inlet gas situation is, in fact, an unnecessary subsidy being taken out of the pockets of middle & lower-income Alaska families statewide (37:52).

The Weekly Top 3 (1.13.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 20, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what Legislative Finance's "Overview of the Governor's Budget" says about the financial situation the Legislature is facing this coming year (2:14), 2) we ask what the heck Enstar is up to now in its ongoing efforts around Southcentral gas supplies (18:08), and 3) we discuss the selective political mutism of some when it comes time to address the adverse impact of PFD cuts on the economics of working-class Alaska families and even on Alaska entrepreneurship (38:44).

The Weekly Top 3 (1.20.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of January 27, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) Senator Dunbar asks the right question about ENSTAR's most recent Cook Inlet proposal, and by the way, where are Chugach, MEA … and Marathon (2:11), 2) Alaska is already sitting in a massive fiscal hole, but rather than working to repair it, the Alaska House Majority is proposing to make it even deeper (16:53), and 3) we explain the real Permanent Fund crisis - the Permanent Fund Corporation is so mismanaging the Fund that it isn't earning enough even to cover the POMV draw (37:31).


The Weekly Top 3 (1.27.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 3, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) while some want to focus only on the short-term cost, we explain why, looking down the road, HB69 is really a $1 billion appropriation (2:13), 2) we explain why, with the legislature backing out of the Cook Inlet debate, it's now up to the Regulatory Commission of Alaska to protect Alaska consumers (19:06), and 3) as the jockeying starts, we discuss what we think is the big thing on which potential candidates in the 2026 Governor's should be focusing on now (37:35).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.3.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 10, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain what a difference a week made as we sort through recent developments on the Cook Inlet import projects (2:04), 2) we discuss our thoughts on President Trump's comments on Japan and #AKLNG (19:02), and 3) we discuss the additional disclosure that we think all presentations and op-eds pushing for more state appropriations should contain (36:56).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.10.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 — our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets — for the week of February 17, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the needed conversation about Alaska’s fiscal situation that the Senate Majority and Senator Yundt from the minority have started (2:08); 2) we explain why the Permanent Fund's failed investment in Peter Pan Seafoods is only the tip of the iceberg of the conversation we should be having about the Fund's management and operation (18:16); and 3) we explain why the board of the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation is rapidly losing its credibility (37:59).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.17.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of February 24, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss the Senate Finance Committee’s proposed SB109, which, if enacted, would be the largest permanent individual tax increase in Alaska’s history (2:09); 2) we explain why the source of the state’s fiscal problem isn’t either too much spending or too little revenue, it’s that we are using the wrong revenue structure (19:59); and 3) we explain why, if you look, you can see the forces behind the state’s next big spending wave starting to form (41:53).

The Weekly Top 3 (2.24.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 3, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why we believe Alaska oil tax reform is not only justified, but needed (2:06); 2) we discuss the fiscal irresponsibility of how both increased K-12 spending as well as defined benefits are being pursued (19:25); and 3) we explain how the PFD is being squeezed from both the left and right (37:52).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.3.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 10, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we review a recent, balanced look by the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks at Alaska's budget situation and the battle over #WhoPays (2:03); 2) we discuss the full on raid on the Permanent Fund corpus by the Senate Majority and how it's being fueled by a poorly invested Permanent Fund (17:56); and 3) we explain how the #AKLNG project always looks great to newcomers … until they start looking under the hood at the economics (38:35).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.10.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 17, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how the Permanent Fund Corporation is leaving substantial amounts of money on the table (1:59); 2) we look at what both the left and right are missing about the Hilcorp loophole (19:54); and 3) we discuss how the Senate is being pushed this session to act as the fiscal grown-up in the room (38:42).

The Weekly Top 3 (3.17.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of March 24, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain why the proposal to combine the Permanent Fund corpus and earnings reserve both puts the corpus at risk and undermines significant performance incentives for the Permanent Fund Corporation (2:14); 2) we explain how Rep. DeLena Johnson and other Republicans are ignoring important data to put the interests of the oil companies ahead of those of Alaska families (15:58); and 3) we explain why we aren't hearing much about Cook Inlet gas in this session (spoiler alert: it's because the market solved the problem) (28:08).

For your information, following this episode, we are taking a three-week break from the show to go on a tour of Ireland. We will return to our seat and be ready to go again on Tuesday, April 15.

The Weekly Top 3 (3.24.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 14, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain the difference between an accounting balanced budget and a distributionally balanced budget and why the Legislature is continually failing to produce the latter (2:06); 2) we discuss former Sen. Joe Paskvan's excellent op-ed in a recent Fairbanks Daily News-Miner attacking the Permanent Fund Corporation's proposed backdoor raid on the Permanent Fund corpus (21:40); and 3) for those interested, we do a Michael Dukes Show "Finer Things" segment on my recent Ireland trip (38:01).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.14.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 21, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what the latest projections from the Permanent Fund Corporation are telling us about where the Permanent Fund is headed on its current course (2:02); 2) we examine the opportunity to make some small headway in generating substitute revenues and reducing the need for PFD cuts (20:13); and 3) we explore some budget-related good news (40:56).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.21.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of April 28, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we explain how a recent op-ed by Larry Persily essentially lays out the same fiscal approach as the Legislature's 2021 Fiscal Policy Working Group, and discuss how to implement both (2:13); 2) we discuss the impact of the Senate's vote yesterday permanently to increase state spending on K-12, and with it, the state's long-term deficit (20:19); and 3) we discuss the likely impact on Alaska of coming decisions at the federal level to shift a material share of the federal spending burden to the states (38:41).

The Weekly Top 3 (4.28.2025)

Welcome to The Weekly Top 3 - our look at the top 3 things on our mind here at Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets - for the week of May 5, 2025.

This week, our top 3 issues are these: 1) we discuss what's going on with oil prices: what's driving the price drop, how low could they go and how long could the price drop last (2:17); 2) we discuss the failure of those who voted for HB 57 (the permanent K-12 funding increase) to realistically deal with a fundamental question: where's the money coming from and #WhoPays (18:56); and 3) we discuss a bill hovering over this session that, if passed, could make Alaska's future even worse from a fiscal perspective (40:35).

Alaskans for Sustainable Budget's "The Weekly Top 3"

Brad Keithley