Inflation has hit exactly 2% just seventeen times in the Euro Area’s 308-month history. However, it has hovered within a range of 1.5% to 2.4% about 42% of the time and now, inflation has settled back into this desirable territory. A monetary policy that remains tight for too long risks causing inflation to undershoot its target. Speed is of the essence.

More about our speakers and chair:

Mário Centeno is the Governor of Banco de Portugal and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank since July 2020.  He served as President of the Eurogroup and Chair of the Board of Governors of the European Stability Mechanism, and for over four years he was Finance Minister of Portugal. An experienced economist, Mr Centeno has held several positions in Banco de Portugal, where he started his career in 1993. He has a strong academic background with a PhD in Economics, from Harvard University, and has published several academic papers. 

Silvana Tenreyro is Professor in Economics at the London School of Economics. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 2002 and an MSc in Economics from Harvard University in 1999. She is Director and Board Member of the Review of Economic Studies and serves as Associate Editor for the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Journal of Monetary Economics and the Economic Journal. She was an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee from July 2017 to July 2023

It's the economy: A lecture by Mário Centeno, Governor of Banco de Portugal

Most countries left the pandemic recession with record levels of public debt: will this trigger a crisis in the near future and if not how can the debt be managed? After the sovereign debt crisis of just over a decade ago, the countries of the European Union are especially sensitive to the risks, and the European Commission has proposed a redesign of the rules that member countries should follow to keep debt sustainable and enhance growth.

This panel discusses the role, virtues, and limitations of these rules, with one of the architects of the Commission’s proposals, a leading economist from one of the largest bond investors in the world, and two academics with work on the effectiveness of fiscal rules and the problem of sharing risk across EU borders.

More about our speakers and chair:

Marco Buti is Head of Cabinet of Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni who is responsible in the European Commission for economic affairs and taxation. From December 2008 until November 2019, he was Director General for Economic and Financial Affairs at the European Commission.

Gene Frieda is Senior Visiting Fellow at the LSE School of Public Policy. Gene is an executive vice president and global strategist based in London and currently serves as a rotating member of PIMCO's investment committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, he was a partner and global strategist at Moore Capital.

Ethan Ilzetzki is an Associate Professor in Economics at LSE. He is a Fellow in the Centre for Economic Policy Research and an Affiliate of the Centre for Macroeconomics. His research focuses on macroeconomics, international economics, and fiscal policy. Ethan heads the CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the UK and EU economies.

Federica Romei is currently an Associate Professor at Hertford College, Oxford University. Federica's primary fields of research are in monetary economics and international economics. She was previously at the Stockholm School of Economics as an Assistant Professor, a Research Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a Visiting Scholar at the Banco de Espana.

Ricardo A. M. R. Reis is a Portuguese economist and the A. W. Phillips professor of economics at LSE In a 2013 ranking of young economists by Glenn Ellison, and in 2016 he won the Germán Bernácer Prize for top European-born economist researching macroeconomics and finance.

Fiscal rules in the EU: looking forward

China’s economy has defied many predictions of doom before, but great new challenges are now piling up.

Old issues including falling productivity growth, high debt, property sector imbalances and high inequality remain. In addition, China’s population has started to decline, and the country is facing increasing technology restrictions and decoupling pressures from the US. How might China navigate these challenges ahead? Can the government remain pragmatic as in the past, and adopt policies and reforms to help sustain growth?

More about our speaker and chair:

Tao Wang is the author of Making Sense of China’s Economy, a book that untangles China’s complex economic structure, evolving challenges and curious contradictions. Dr Wang is currently a managing director and head of Asia Economic Research at UBS investment bank. She is an invited fellow of the China Finance (CF) 40 Forum and a member of the China Global Economic Governance 50 Forum. She served as a member of the Mainland Opportunities Committee of the Hong Kong Financial Services Development Council between 2015 and 2021.

Ricardo Reis is the Arthur Williams Phillips Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, LSE. Recent honors include the 2002 Carl Menger prize, the 2021 Yrjo Jahnsson medal, election fo the Econometric Society in 2019. He is an academic consultant at the Bank of England, the Riksbank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and he directs the Centre for Macroeconomics in the UK.

How Might China Navigate the Challenges Ahead?

Monetary policy is well equipped to address demand shocks. For many structural or supply side shocks the traditional answer was to look through and not allow second round effects to emerge. Is that the right answer when structural shifts, such as climate change or economic fragmentation, are expected to affect inflation over long horizons?

Meet our speaker and chair:

Andréa M Maechler is Deputy General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. Previously, she was a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) where she was responsible for the Money Market and Foreign Exchange, Asset Management, Banking Operations and Information Technology portfolios. Ms Maechler has also held positions at the International Monetary Fund and at several international institutions.

Ricardo Reis is the A.W. Phillips Professor of Economics at LSE. Recent honors include the 2022 Carl Menger prize, the 2021 Yrjo Jahnsson medal, election for the Econometric Society in 2019, the 2017 BdF/TSE junior prize, and the 2016 Bernacer prize. He is an academic consultant at the Bank of England, the Riksbank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, directs the Centre for Macroeconomics, and serves on the council or as an advisor of multiple organizations.

Monetary policy in an era of more challenging supply conditions - do the old principles still stand?

A new Cold War is underway. While the first Cold War was dominated by the threat of nuclear conflict, the new front line is economic and financial, but still dominated by technology. Who controls its future will help decide the outcome of the geopolitical struggle between China and the US.

Since the end of the Second World War, the US dollar has been the global reserve currency, which has ensured American dominance of the world economy. But no longer. More than a hundred countries are developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), digital equivalents to cash that will utterly transform how we do business at home and abroad. China was the first country to recognise the potential of this new money. The West's media focused on the new currency's role in China's surveillance state, creating widespread concern about all CBDCs. But they have largely overlooked a more important aspect of its existence: as a tool through which to 'de-dollarise' the developing world at the speed of light. The presentation will discuss how CBDCs are going to impact all of our futures in ways that most of us have failed to even consider. If the West is to compete, it needs to act fast to develop its own global digital currencies that reflect the values of liberal democracies.

Speaker: Brunello Rosa (@brunello_rosa) is a financial economist and geopolitical strategist who advises market participants, policy-makers and institutions. He is the CEO and head of research of Rosa & Roubini Associates, a visiting professor at City St George’s, University of London, and Senior Executive Fellow at the School of Management of Bocconi University in Italy. He is the coordinator of the executive education course in Global Macroeconomic Challenges at LSE, where he has taught in various capacities for the last twenty years. Having previously worked at the Bank of England, he is an active member of the Chief Economists Advisory Board of the European Investment Bank. More recently he has advised several institutions, including the UK Parliament, on the geopolitical aspects of CBDCs.

Chair: Ricardo Reis (@R2Rsquared) is the A.W. Phillips Professor of Economics at LSE. Recent honors include the 2022 Carl Menger prize, the 2021 Yrjo Jahnsson medal, election for the Econometric Society in 2019, the 2017 BdF/TSE junior prize, and the 2016 Bernacer prize. He is an academic consultant at the Bank of England, the Riksbank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, directs the Centre for Macroeconomics, and serves on the council or as an advisor of multiple organizations. He has published widely on macroeconomics, including both monetary and fiscal policy, inflation and business cycles. Professor Reis received his PhD from Harvard University, and was previously on the faculties at Columbia University and Princeton University.

The geopolitics of central bank digital currencies

What if the key to a happier, more balanced life was already inside your head?

For years, Neeltje van Horen excelled in her career yet felt stuck in a cycle of stress and self-doubt. Searching for answers, she turned to neuroscience and psychology and discovered that small, intentional shifts -not grand overhauls or sheer willpower - can reshape the way we think, feel, and perform.

In this lecture, Neeltje shares key insights from her journey and research, offering a starting point for those looking to sharpen focus, boost mental performance, or break free from unhelpful thought patterns. Sometimes, the biggest obstacle isn’t the challenge itself - it’s how we think about it.

Meet our speaker and chair

Neeltje van Horen is a professor of financial economics at the University of Amsterdam and a senior research advisor at the Bank of England. Her research examines the dynamic interplay between the financial sector and the real economy. As a writer and speaker, Neeltje bridges the gap between scientific research and everyday life, translating insights from neuroscience, psychology, and economics into practical tools. Her upcoming book, Ignite, guides readers to build resilience, unlock their potential, and create positive, lasting change.

Richard Layard is the founder-Director of the Centre for Economic Performance - a leading inter-disciplinary research centre at the London School of Economics – and is co-Director of their Community Wellbeing programme. Richard is currently immersed in a major study of value-for-money across the whole field of public expenditure, where value is measured in terms of wellbeing. He considers this the next key step forward in wellbeing science.

Unlocking potential starts with how you think

Alan Taylor, the newest member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, delivers a special lecture on monetary policy.

He discusses the natural rate of interest, also known as r*, including empirical estimates. He also talks about the current economic situation, and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Meet our speaker and chair

Alan Taylor is an economist and currently Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. He has served as a senior advisor at Morgan Stanley, PIMCO and McKinsey. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He is also visiting scholar at the Bank of England.

Silvana Tenreyro is Professor of Economics at LSE, Fellow of the British Academy and Fellow of the Econometric Society. She is a former External Member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, and former President of the European Economic Association (EEA). Currently, she serves as Director of the CEPR International Finance and Macroeconomics Programme and as a member of the External Advisory Group of the IMF.

The end of the road

Centre For Macroeconomics

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