This episode explores the technical backbone of climate–conflict research — the data, models, and analytical methods that help researchers understand how climate risks interact with insecurity, displacement, and conflict. Hosted by Marina Mastrorillo, Senior Economist at CGIAR, the conversation features two leading scholars: Prof. Nina von Uexkull (University of Konstanz / Uppsala University) and Prof. Jürgen Scheffran (University of Hamburg).

Climate and Conflict: Untangling the Evidence with a Quantitative Lens

In this episode, host Marina Mastrorillo speaks with Tilman Brück of the International Security and Development Center and Antonio Scognamillo of FAO about one of climate-conflict research’s toughest questions: how to distinguish correlation from causation. They unpack endogeneity, overlapping drivers like food security and migration, and the limits of econometrics. The discussion highlights why causal inference matters, when correlations are still useful, and how evidence can better support policy and early warning.

From Correlation to Causation: Rethinking Evidence in Climate-conflict Research

CGIAR Focus Climate Security is aligning evidence from the realms of climate, land, and food systems science with peacebuilding efforts to address conflict through evidence-based environmental, political, and socioeconomic solutions.

From Correlation to Causation: Rethinking Evidence in Climate-conflict Research

CGIAR Focus Climate Security

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