Tierra del Fuego and Tinfoil Hats

The financial press has mostly overlooked the recent debt restructuring by Argentine province Tierra del Fuego. (To be fair, Mark has overlooked it too.) But there were aspects of the deal that might strike some as a bit coercive – like an initial proposal to pay investors who consented early more than investors who took more time, and different payments ultimately made to consenting and non-consenting creditors. Why bother using such coercive tactics, when they arguably weren't needed to get the deal done? Were the tactics even coercive? Should conspiracy theorists see a broader pattern in which issuers are using coercive tactics in minor restructurings so as to create a precedent for their use in big ones? We put on our tinfoil hats and speculate.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 126 ft. Mitu & Mark

Back to the Future (Again) -- Russian Frozen Assets Episode

In recent months, there has been much talk about what to do with frozen Russian assets and, in particular, whether they can be repurposed to aid Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion.  This is not the first time that large amounts of Russian assets have been frozen though, with heated debates about whether to expropriate the frozen funds. In this podcast we talk to Professor Lauge Poulsen of UCL about one of these prior freezings, from the early 1900s. Indeed, the 1918 default of Soviet Russia on investors in Tsarist Russian bonds is still one of the largest ever sovereign defaults and it (along with other expropriations) then resulted in widespread freezing of Russian assets overseas. Lauge and his co author, Eileen Denza, have a fascinating article about the negotiations between the UK Foreign Office and the Soviets over these frozen assets and the ultimate resolution of all of the various claims and counterclaims (a process that took close to three quarters of a century). The article, “Settling Russia’s Imperial and Baltic Debts” appears in the American Journal of International Law.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 127 ft. Lauge Poulsen

Something Black in the Lentils at Ukrenegro

A few weeks ago, there was an announcement that some of the creditors of the Ukrainian electric company, Ukrenegro, wanted their debt restructuring talks to be separate from any broader Ukrainian debt restructuring. And the prices of the Ukrenegro bonds (backed by a sovereign guarantee) shot up. This intrigued us. Why did the market suddenly see new value in these bonds, simply because of an announcement? Our old friend, Chris Spink, one of the best sovereign debt reporters in the business, talks with us about what might be going on. We can't help but speculate…

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 128 ft. Chris Spink

The Last Sovereign Bond in New York

Due to litigation over the PDVSA 2020 bond, all future issues of sovereign bonds in New York have been canceled, effective immediately. (PDVSA is quasi-sovereign, but whatever...) You may have heard that New York’s highest court has ruled that investors cannot enforce sovereign bonds, period. Well, maybe that's not quite what it held – okay, not even remotely – but it is how some in the market are reacting. In fact, the New York Court of Appeals did nothing unusual. It held that Venezuelan law decides whether the collateral pledge backing the PDVSA 2020 bonds is valid but that, even if invalid, New York law will decide whether and how this affects investors. Some are complaining that this ignores the contractual choice of law provision designating New York's law as governing. But if investors are surprised, they shouldn't be, and there is nothing unique or strange about New York's conflicts law. Anyway, no one has said the bond is unsecured. No need for all the bedwetting.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 129 ft. Mitu & Mark

Who Benefits from Lifting Sanctions on Buying Venezuelan Bonds?

Banning U.S. parties from buying Venezuelan bonds was probably a bad idea. But was it a good idea to lift the ban last fall? Investors apparently sold the Biden administration on the idea that lifting the ban would yield big benefits: bonds had migrated into the hands of parties acting as proxies for U.S. adversaries like Russia. Lifting the ban would cause the bonds to migrate back to U.S. investors, giving them (and, indirectly, the U.S. government) a seat at the table when a restructuring eventually happens. That was the story, anyway. But does it make sense? Or were investors selling the Biden administration a bill of goods, advocating for a policy change that would enrich them without doing squat to change the geopolitics of Venezuelan debt? Kejal Vyas (Wall Street Journal) has covered the machinations behind the policy shift, and he enlightens us about all things Venezuela.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 130 ft. Kejal Vyas

Ukrenergo Confusion

Rumor has it that holders of bonds issued by Ukrenergo, the state-owned corporation that runs Ukraine's electricity distribution system, expect to get better treatment in a debt restructuring, even though their bonds are guaranteed by the state and at least arguably can be forced to vote alongside holders of Ukrainian sovereign bonds (whose votes could swamp those of the Ukrenergo investors). Do the documents for the Ukrenergo bonds allow this? Or is there some other explanation for why holders of the corporate bonds expect better treatment. We are ... confused. Do not expect clarity.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 131 ft. Mitu & Mark

A Way to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Help Ukraine?

There has been much chatter lately about a proposal from Lee Buchheit, Daleep Singh and Hugo Dixon to address concerns in Western nations about using frozen Russian assets to get Ukraine much needed war financing. One might ask why these nations are so concerned about confiscating Russian assets when they have already frozen the assets, seemingly in perpetuity. But apparently, the difference matters quite a lot. Our guests, Ingrid Brunk and Paul Stephan, are two of the most thoughtful and careful thinkers about international law and they help us understand the virtues and pitfalls of this new, and very creative, proposal.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 132 ft. Ingrid Brunk & Paul Stephan

Lessons from the 1980s Debt Crisis

The 1980s debt crisis began in Mexico and engulfed countries around the world, leading, via the Brady Plan, to the revival of the bond markets. Beyond that, we confess to relatively little knowledge about this fundamental episode in sovereign debt history. For so many of the leading lights of the contemporary sovereign debt world, the Latin American debt crisis was where they cut their teeth. The lessons they took from that era shaped the choices they made over the succeeding decades. Our guest is Jerome Sgard (SciencePo), who joins us to talk about his book, The Debt Crisis of the 1980s, which taps into new archival material and draws on interviews with many of the key participants. We ask Jerome about this key decade in the evolution of the modern sovereign debt architecture.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 133 ft. Jerome Sgard

The Latest in the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga: Drafting Goof or Sneaky Drafting?

There are so many intriguing aspects of the latest installment of the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga. This time, from Judge Preska in the SDNY, Argentina scores a big, and for us, totally unexpected victory. Argentina’s lawyers, at a very late stage, discovered a magic bullet that no one seems to have realized was there. Mark doesn’t like to use the term “contractual landmine”, but he does here. Mitu applauds.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 134 ft. Mitu & Mark

El Salvador’s Warrants: Bukele’s Folly?

El Salvador has issued a new bond, using part of the proceeds to buy back some bonds that mature in the relatively near term. The issuance includes a detachable warrant that pays up to an additional 4% if El Salvador does not get an IMF program in place soon (or achieve a higher credit rating). The issuance has been characterized as a way to convince investors that El Salvador really is serious about striking an IMF deal. But the whole thing strikes us as loony tunes. Which is it? We ask EM guru Ben Heller.

Producer: Leanna Doty

Ep 135 ft. Ben Heller

Clauses and Controversies: A Podcast about International Finance, Contract Clauses and the Controversies Surrounding These Clauses

Ep 131 ft. Mitu & Mark

Clauses & Controversies

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