Hong Kong on the Brink

China Digest 18/09

Hong Kong

​In this week’s episode, Jude and Andrew welcome Minxin Pei, the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and an expert in China’s domestic politics. They discuss whether Beijing will indeed use its domestic security forces to subdue the protest movement—or whether they are bluffing.
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/will-beijing-use-force)

Will Beijing Use Force?

This week, Jude and Andrew discuss last Sunday’s mass migration of Hong Kong protesters in a peaceful march, and what it might indicate for the future. They also analyze the growing role of social media within the conflict, as well as within potential cyber threats from China, and how the White House and U.S. Congress is—or isn’t—responding to it all.

Influence Operations

In this episode, Jude welcomes Joel Wuthnow. They discuss the history of China’s People’s Armed Police and what part the force might play in the expanding conflict. Joel is a research fellow at the Center of the Study for Chinese Military Affairs at National Defense University, as well as an adjunct professor at NDU and Georgetown University. Additionally, Joel authored the report, “China’s Other Army: The People’s Armed Police in an Era of Reform.”
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/peoples-armed-police)

The People's Armed Police

In this episode Professor Ho-Fung Hung describes his experience on the ground in Hong Kong from when he visited in August. Professor Hung also highlights the differences between old and new generations of protesters and looks ahead at what Hong Kong could look like in year 2047, when the “one country, two systems” arrangement is set to expire.

 Professor Ho-Fung Hung is the Henry M. and Elizabeth P. Wiesenfeld Professor in Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University.
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/fearless)

Fearless

Why is US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay a tariff increase due to kick in on October 1, 2019 especially significant? Political economy editors Zhou Xin and John Carter explain the importance of this date in the Chinese calendar and look at the messages back and forth in the run up to the next round of trade talks.

Zhou Xin explains how China’s top negotiators consider these upcoming talks to be on two tracks: trade issues which may be up for discussion and structural and security issues, which are not.
John Carter analyses the economic reality behind China’s reported decision to resume buying US agricultural goods, and how food security and the pressing need to keep 1.4 billion mouths fed adds an extra layer of pressure to negotiators on both sides.

In the second part of the podcast we hear from our reporter Sidney Leng, who has just returned from Zuhai in mainland China and a visit to a massive factory operated by Flex, one of the largest manufacturers you’ve never heard of, who he describes as “the American Foxconn”.

Analysing Trump's anniversary gift, and how food security dictates China's negotiating strategy

In January 2020 Taiwan will hold elections for the president and the legislature. Campaigning for the presidency has long since commenced, and the two main political parties, the KMT and DPP, have selected their candidates. Please join the Freeman Chair in China Studies on September 12th for a discussion on the election dynamics on the island. The event will feature an in-depth analysis of polling data and campaign strategies by Nathan Batto, Associate Research Fellow in the Institute of Political Science of the Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s premier research institution. (Read more at https://csis.org/events/taiwan-goes-polls)

Taiwan Goes to the Polls

China’s Rise In Eurasia

China’s Rise In Eurasia Pt.2

Speaker: Craig Allen, President, US-China Business Council

This event is part of the "China Economy Lecture Series," hosted by Professor Meg Rithmire at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University.

On July 26, 2018, Craig Allen began his tenure in Washington, DC, as the sixth President of the United States-China Business Council (USCBC), a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization representing over 200 American companies doing business with China. Prior to joining USCBC, Craig had a long, distinguished career in US public service.

Craig began his government career in 1985 at the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA). He entered government as a Presidential Management Intern, rotating through the four branches of ITA. From 1986 to 1988, he was an international economist in ITA’s China Office.

In 1988, Craig transferred to the American Institute in Taiwan, where he served as Director of the American Trade Center in Taipei. He held this position until 1992, when he returned to the Department of Commerce for a three-year posting at the US Embassy in Beijing as Commercial Attaché.

In 1995, Craig was assigned to the US Embassy in Tokyo, where he served as a Commercial Attaché. In 1998, he was promoted to Deputy Senior Commercial Officer. In 1999, Craig became a member of the Senior Foreign Service.

From 2000, Craig served a two-year tour at the National Center for APEC in Seattle. While there, he worked on the APEC Summits in Brunei, China, and Mexico. In 2002, it was back to Beijing, where Craig served as the Senior Commercial Officer. In Beijing, Craig was promoted to the Minister Counselor rank of the Senior Foreign Service.

After a four-year tour in South Africa, Craig became Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia at the US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration. He later became Deputy Assistant Secretary for China. Craig was sworn in as the United States ambassador to Brunei Darussalam on December 19, 2014. He served there until July 2018, when he transitioned to President of the US-China Business Council.

Craig received a B.A. from the University of Michigan in Political Science and Asian Studies in 1979. He received a Master of Science in Foreign Service from Georgetown University in 1985.

Line-In Record

Craig Allen - US-China Trade Negotiations: No Perpetual Friends or Enemies, Only Perpetual Interests

In this episode, Jude is joined by five special guests. Nathan Law, Denise Ho, Joshua Wong, Jeffrey Ngo, and Brian Leung all sit in to discuss their recent visit to Capitol Hill, where they advocated for the passing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019. They also raise questions about the future of the protests as they lead up to the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on October 1st. (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/hong-kongs-voices-democracy)

Hong Kong's Voices of Democracy

In this episode, Jude invites Ben Bland, director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute in Australia and author of Generation HK: Seeking Identity in China's Shadow. They discuss the on-going protests and increasing violence in Hong Kong, as well as the controversy with the National Basketball Association and what it means for U.S.-China international business relations.
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/no-turning-back)

No Turning Back

In this episode, Jude invites Professor Victoria Hui, associate professor in the department of political science at the University of Notre Dame. Drawing on her academic work on global protest movements, Professor Hui analyzes the forces that are shaping Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement, as well as the causes and consequences of the cycles of violence between protesters and the Hong Kong police.
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/why-protest-movements-radicalize)

Why Protest Movements Radicalize

In this episode, Jude invites CSIS Director of the China Power Project Bonnie Glaser. They discuss how the ongoing events in Hong Kong are impacting Taiwan’s own relations with mainland China, as well as how the continued unrest can affect Taiwan’s presidential elections coming up in January 2020.
 (Read more at https://csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/taiwans-close-watch-hong-kong-protests)