When returns on safe assets fall, investors move some of their money to riskier assets. This ECB Blog shows: US Treasuries are replaced by global bonds, while substitutes for Bunds are mostly from Europe. This effect is smaller in times of market stress.

The original post was published on 06 January 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250106~7a7fd7104b.en.html

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Portfolio rebalancing: investors’ safe asset substitution patterns

Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. Oscar Arce, Agostino Consolo, António Dias da Silva and Marco Weissler blog analyse the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers.

The original post was published on 8 May 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250508~897078ce87.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Foreign workers: a lever for economic growth

Claudia Marchini and Alexander Popov demonstrate that over the last 25 years the EU’s trading partners have become less and less democratic, and they investigate the background of this development and the dynamics at play.

The original post was published on 8 July 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog...

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
8 July 2025

Trading with dictators? A historical review of the EU’s business partners

Based on joint research conducted by the ECB and Oxford University’s Resilient Planet Finance Lab, Andrej Ceglar, Francesca Danieli, Irene Heemskerk, Mark Jwaideh and Nicola Ranger argue that the degradation of natural ecosystems slows growth and leads to financial instability and that surface water scarcity alone can put almost 15 per cent of euro area’s economic output at risk.

The original post was published on 23 May 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250523~d39e3a7933.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
23 May 2025

The European economy is not drought-proof

Pedro Baptista, Maarten Dossche, Andrew Hannon, Dorian Henricot, Omiros Kouvavas, Davide Malacrino and Larissa Zimmermann investigate the monetary policy transmission from mortgage rates to consumption. They show that the resulting drag on consumption could last at least until 2030.


The original post was published on 28 May 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250528~bd3c3b750a.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
28 May 2025

Monetary policy transmission: from mortgage rates to consumption

Memories of hyperinflation live on in public debates on money. In the case of Germany, the trauma of 1923 is widely seen as the source of the country’s preference for fiscal discipline and stability-oriented central banking. David Barkhausen sheds new light on the collective memory and its genesis.

The original post was published on 20 June 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250620~13431554af.en.html

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Hyperinflation: trauma and its reconstruction

July 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects. Miles Parker has a closer look.

The original post was published on 13 July 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250713~631b265757.en.html

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Has the heatwave been driving you nuts?

Jürgen Schaaf explains how stablecoins are reshaping global finance, with the US dollar at the helm. He suggests that without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, he argues that in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.

The original post was published on 28 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250728~e6cb3cf8b5.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
28 July 2025

From hype to hazard: what stablecoins mean for Europe

Lukas Boeckelmann, Lorenz Emter, Vanessa Gunnella, Karin Klieber and Tajda Spital argue that with trade tensions between China and the United States reaching new heights , Chinese exports may be redirected to the euro area. In a severe scenario, this additional supply and the accompanying lower import prices could bring down euro area inflation by as much as 0.15 percentage points.

The original post was published on 30 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250730~833a22650e.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
30 July 2025

China-US trade tensions could bring more Chinese exports and lower prices to Europe

This post by Niccolò Battistini and Johannes Gareis explores the ripple effects of the ECB’s recent monetary policy on housing affordability, housing sales and households’ home goods consumption.

The original post was published on 31 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250731...

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
31 July 2025

The ripple effects of monetary policy on housing and consumption

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann examine how investment funds adjust their holdings of euro area sovereign debt in comparison with other domestic and international investor groups, including banks, insurance companies and households in times of stress in euro area sovereign bond markets.

The original post was published on 12 August 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250814~86d5171bf2.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
12 August 2025

Who are the “bond vigilantes” on sovereign debt markets?

The ECB Blog offers new insights on the economy and central bank policies based on our data, analysis and research - for the euro area and beyond. For the full texts of our posts, including visuals, please visit our website.

Posts are authored by ECB staff and the audio versions are machine generated. The views expressed are those of the posts' authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.

Portfolio rebalancing: investors’ safe asset substitution patterns

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