When returns on safe assets fall, investors move some of their money to riskier assets. This ECB Blog shows: US Treasuries are replaced by global bonds, while substitutes for Bunds are mostly from Europe. This effect is smaller in times of market stress.

The original post was published on 06 January 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250106~7a7fd7104b.en.html

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Portfolio rebalancing: investors’ safe asset substitution patterns

Claudia Marchini and Alexander Popov demonstrate that over the last 25 years the EU’s trading partners have become less and less democratic, and they investigate the background of this development and the dynamics at play.

The original post was published on 8 July 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog...

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
8 July 2025

Trading with dictators? A historical review of the EU’s business partners

July 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects. Miles Parker has a closer look.

The original post was published on 13 July 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250713~631b265757.en.html

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Has the heatwave been driving you nuts?

Jürgen Schaaf explains how stablecoins are reshaping global finance, with the US dollar at the helm. He suggests that without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, he argues that in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.

The original post was published on 28 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250728~e6cb3cf8b5.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
28 July 2025

From hype to hazard: what stablecoins mean for Europe

Lukas Boeckelmann, Lorenz Emter, Vanessa Gunnella, Karin Klieber and Tajda Spital argue that with trade tensions between China and the United States reaching new heights , Chinese exports may be redirected to the euro area. In a severe scenario, this additional supply and the accompanying lower import prices could bring down euro area inflation by as much as 0.15 percentage points.

The original post was published on 30 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250730~833a22650e.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
30 July 2025

China-US trade tensions could bring more Chinese exports and lower prices to Europe

This post by Niccolò Battistini and Johannes Gareis explores the ripple effects of the ECB’s recent monetary policy on housing affordability, housing sales and households’ home goods consumption.

The original post was published on 31 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250731...

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
31 July 2025

The ripple effects of monetary policy on housing and consumption

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann examine how investment funds adjust their holdings of euro area sovereign debt in comparison with other domestic and international investor groups, including banks, insurance companies and households in times of stress in euro area sovereign bond markets.

The original post was published on 12 August 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250814~86d5171bf2.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
12 August 2025

Who are the “bond vigilantes” on sovereign debt markets?

A field experiment indicates that direct communication with ECB visitors better anchors their inflation expectations. As Alexander Jung, Francesco Paolo Mongelli and Christian Scherf show, visitors with little knowledge of monetary policy are particularly likely to align their expectations with the ECB’s inflation target after speaking to central bankers.

The original post was published on 16 September 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250916~23a41f157c.en.html

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European Central Bank
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ECB visitors – can direct communication alter inflation expectations?

Good statistics are accurate, timely, consistent and comparable. Only then can they be the unbiased reality check needed for responsible decision-making. Claudia Mann looks back at past mistakes and what Europe has learned from them.

The original post was published on 26 September 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250926~e348e2b4b9.en.html


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Don’t blame the herald: statistical independence is indispensable

Do European workers see US tariff hikes as a threat to their job security? According to an ECB survey, while most workers are fairly relaxed, those in export-oriented sectors and those with lower incomes are more worried about their jobs than before the tariff increase.

The original post was published on 10 October 2025.
ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20251010~7737b271a0.en.html

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Tariffs: are workers more worried about their jobs?

The economist Robert Lucas famously wrote that “Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else.” The Nobel committee seems to agree. For the second year in a row, it has chosen to honour work on economic growth. This ECB Blog post by Conny Olovsson and Alexander Popov looks at the research of this year’s laureates.

The original post was published on 20 October 2025.
ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20251020~a889f0290a.en.html

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European Central Bank
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Understanding sustained growth: the 2025 Nobel Prize and why it matters for Europe

The ECB Blog offers new insights on the economy and central bank policies based on our data, analysis and research - for the euro area and beyond. For the full texts of our posts, including visuals, please visit our website.

Posts are authored by ECB staff and the audio versions are machine generated. The views expressed are those of the posts' authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.