Ajeya Cotra joins us to discuss forecasting transformative artificial intelligence. 

Follow the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:53 Ajeya's report on AI
01:16 What is transformative AI?
02:09 Forecasting transformative AI
02:53 Historical growth rates
05:10 Simpler forecasting methods
09:01 Biological anchors
16:31 Different paths to transformative AI
17:55 Which year will we get transformative AI?
25:54 Expert opinion on transformative AI
30:08 Are today's machine learning techniques enough?
33:06 Will AI be limited by the physical world and regulation?
38:15 Will AI be limited by training data?
41:48 Are there human abilities that AIs cannot learn?
47:22 The next episode

Ajeya Cotra on Forecasting Transformative Artificial Intelligence

The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit working to reduce global catastrophic and existential risk from powerful technologies. In particular, FLI focuses on risks from artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, nuclear weapons and climate change.

The Institute's work is made up of three main strands: grantmaking for risk reduction, educational outreach, and advocacy within the United Nations, US government and European Union institutions.

FLI has become one of the world's leading voices on the governance of AI having created one of the earliest and most influential sets of governance principles: the Asilomar AI Principles.