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Linear Digressions - Old to New

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Algorithms, the Internet, STEAM, and the Continuing Struggle for Justice

Linear Digressions

Machine learning and particle physics go together like peanut butter and jelly--but this is a relatively new development.  

For many decades, physicists looked through their fairly large datasets using the laws of physics to guide their exploration; that tradition continues today, but as ever-larger datasets get made, machine learning becomes a more tractable way to deal with the deluge.  

With this in mind, ATLAS (one of the major experiments at CERN, the European Center for Nuclear Research and home laboratory of the recently discovered Higgs boson) ran a machine learning contest over the summer, to see what advances could be found from opening up the dataset to non-physicists.  

The results were impressive--physicists are smart folks, but there’s clearly lots of advances yet to make as machine learning and physics learn from one another.  And who knows--maybe more Nobel prizes to win as well!

https://www.kaggle.com/c/higgs-boson

Hunting for the Higgs

In the 1850s, there were a lot of things we didn’t know yet: how to create an airplane, how to split an atom, or how to control the spread of a common but deadly disease: cholera.  

When a cholera outbreak in London killed scores of people, a doctor named John Snow used it as a chance to study whether the cause might be very small organisms that were spreading through the water supply (the prevailing theory at the time was miasma, or “bad air”).  By tracing the geography of all the deaths from the outbreak, Snow was practicing elementary data science--and stumbled upon one of history’s most famous outliers.  

In this episode, we’ll tell you more about this single data point, a case of cholera that cracked the case wide open for Snow and provided critical validation for the germ theory of disease.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1854_Broad_Street_cholera_outbreak

How Outliers Helped Defeat Cholera

Computers are capable of many impressive feats, but making you laugh is usually not one of them. Or could it be? This episode will talk about a custom-built machine learning algorithm that searches through text and writes jokes based on what it finds. 

The jokes are formulaic: they're all of the form "I like my X like I like my Y: Z" where X and Y are nouns, and Z is an adjective that can describe both X and Y. For (dumb) example, "I like my men like I like my coffee: steaming hot." The joke is funny when ZX and ZY are both very common phrases, but X and Y are rarely seen together. 

So, given a large enough corpus of text, the algorithm looks for triplets of words that fit this description and writes jokes based on them. Are the jokes funny? You be the judge...

http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/s0894589/petrovic13unsupervised.pdf

Computers Try to Tell Jokes

Baseball is characterized by a high level of equality between teams; even the best teams might only have 55% win percentages (contrast this with college football, where teams go undefeated pretty regularly). In this regime, where 2 outcomes (Giants win/Giants lose) are approximately equally likely, we can model the win/loss chances with a binomial distribution. 

Using the binomial distribution, we can calculate an interesting little result: what's the chance of the world series going to only 4 games? 5? 6? All the way to 7? Then we can compare to decades' worth of world series data, to see how well the data follows the binomial assumption. 

The result tells us a lot about sports psychology--if each game is independent of the others, 4/5/6/7 game series are equally likely. The data shows a different trend: 4 and 7 game series are significantly more likely than 5 or 6. There's a powerful psychological effect at play--everybody loves the 7th game of the world series, or a good sweep. And it turns out that the baseball teams, whether they intend it or not, oblige our love of short (4) and long (7) world series!

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2007/06/winning-world-series-in-x-games.html

Stats of World Series Streaks

A true classic topic in ML: Facial recognition is very high-dimensional, meaning that each picture can have millions of pixels, each of which can be a single feature. It's computationally expensive to deal with all these features, and invites overfitting problems. PCA (principal components analysis) is a classic dimensionality reduction tool that compresses these many dimensions into the few that contain the most variation in the data, and those principal components are often then fed into a classic ML algorithm like and SVM. 

One of the best thing about eigenfaces is the great example code that you can find in sklearn--you can distinguish pictures of world leaders yourself in just a few minutes!

http://scikit-learn.org/stable/auto_examples/applications/face_recognition.html

Facial Recognition with Eigenfaces

After the Challenger exploded in 1986, killing all 7 astronauts aboard, an investigation into the cause was immediately launched. 

In the cold temperatures the night before the launch, the o-rings that seal off the fuel tanks from the rocket boosters became inflexible, so they did not seal properly, which led to the fuel tank explosion. NASA knew that there could be o-ring problems, but performed the analysis of their data incorrectly and ended up massively underestimating the risk associated with the cold temperatures. 

In this episode, we'll unpack the mistakes they made. We'll talk about how they excluded data points that they thought were irrelevant but which actually were critical to recognizing a fatal pattern.

Statistical Mistakes and the Challenger Disaster

Let’s talk money. As a “hot” career right now, data science can pay pretty well. But for an individual person matched with a specific job or industry, how much should someone expect to make? 

Since Katie was on the job market lately, this was something she’s been researching, and it turns out that data science itself (in particular linear regressions) has some answers. 

In this episode, we go through a survey of hundreds of data scientists, who report on their job duties, industry, skills, education, location, etc. along with their salaries, and then talk about how this data was fed into a linear regression so that you (yes, you!) can use the patterns in the data to know what kind of salary any particular kind of data scientist might expect.

Careers in Data Science

Let's talk about randomness! Although randomness is pervasive throughout the natural world, it's surprisingly difficult to generate random numbers. And even if your numbers look random (but actually aren't), it can have interesting consequences on the security of systems, and the accuracy of models and research. 

In this episode, Katie and Ben talk about randomness, its place in machine learning and computation in general, along with some random digressions of their own.

Random Number Generation

Come get a little "out there" with us this week, as we use a meta-study of extrasensory perception (or ESP, often used in the same sentence as "psychics") to chat about Bayesian vs. frequentist statistics.

Bayesian Psychics

When you sleep, the neural pathways in your brain take the "white noise" of your resting brain, mix in your experiences and imagination, and the result is dreams (that is a highly unscientific explanation, but you get the idea).  What happens when neural nets are put through the same process?  Train a neural net to recognize pictures, and then send through an image of white noise, and it will start to see some weird (but cool!) stuff.

Neural Net Inception

Zipf's law is related to the statistics of how word usage is distributed.  As it turns out, this is also strikingly reminiscent of how income is distributed, and populations of cities, and bug reports in software, as well as tons of other phenomena that we all interact with every day.

Relevant links:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/a-tale-of-many-cities/
http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0412004.pdf
https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/benfords-law-zipfs-law-and-the-pareto-distribution/

Zipf's Law

The Medici were one of the great ruling families of Europe during the Renaissance.  How did they come to rule?  Not power, or money, or armies, but through the strength of their social network.  And speaking of great historical social networks, analysis of the network of letter-writing during the Enlightenment is helping humanities scholars track the dispersion of great ideas across the world during that time, from Voltaire to Benjamin Franklin and everyone in between.

Relevant links:
https://www2.bc.edu/~jonescq/mb851/Mar12/PadgettAnsell_AJS_1993.pdf
http://republicofletters.stanford.edu/index.html

Great Social Networks in History

Let's imagine a future in which a truly intelligent computer program exists.  How would it convince us (humanity) that it was intelligent?  Alan Turing's answer to this question, proposed over 60 years ago, is that the program could convince a human conversational partner that it, the computer, was in fact a human.  60 years later, the Turing Test endures as a gold standard of artificial intelligence.  It hasn't been beaten, either--yet.

Relevant links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test
http://commonsensereasoning.org/winograd.html
http://consumerist.com/2015/09/29/its-not-just-you-robots-are-also-bad-at-assembling-ikea-furniture/

The Turing Test

Survival analysis is all about studying how long until an event occurs--it's used in marketing to study how long a customer stays with a service, in epidemiology to estimate the duration of survival of a patient with some illness, and in social science to understand how the characteristics of a war inform how long the war goes on.  This episode talks about the special challenges associated with survival analysis, and the tools that (data) scientists use to answer all kinds of duration-related questions.

Survival Analysis

First up in this episode: a crash course in natural language processing, and important steps if you want to use machine learning techniques on text data.  Then we'll take that NLP know-how and talk about a really cool analysis of State of the Union text, which analyzes the topics and word choices of every President from Washington to Obama.

Relevant link:
https://civisanalytics.com/blog/data-science/2016/01/15/data-science-on-state-of-the-union-addresses/

Text Analysis on the State Of The Union

"People with a family history of heart disease are more likely to eat healthy foods, and have a high incidence of heart attacks."  Did the healthy food cause the heart attacks?  Probably not.  But establishing causal links is extremely tricky, and extremely important to get right if you're trying to help students, test new medicines, or just optimize a website.  In this episode, we'll unpack randomized experiments, like AB tests, and maybe you'll be smarter as a result.  Will you be smarter BECAUSE of this episode?  Well, tough to say for sure...

Relevant link:
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Experiments and Messy, Tricky Causality

In this episode, we're taking many episodes' worth of insights and unpacking an extremely complex and important question--in what ways are we winning the fight against cancer, where might that fight go in the coming decade, and how do we know when we're making progress?  No matter how tricky you might think this problem is to solve, the fact is, once you get in there trying to solve it, it's even trickier than you thought.

A Data Scientist's View of the Fight against Cancer

This episode started out as a discussion of recommendation engines, like Netflix uses to suggest movies.  There's still a lot of that in here.  But a related topic, which is both interesting and important, is how to keep data private in the era of large-scale recommendation engines--what mistakes have been made surrounding supposedly anonymized data, how data ends up de-anonymized, and why it matters for you.

Relevant links:
http://www.netflixprize.com/
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/12/netflix-cancels-contest-plans-and-settles-suit/?_r=0
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cs/pdf/0610/0610105v2.pdf

Recommendation Engines and Privacy

Sometimes when we say an algorithm discriminates, we mean it can tell the difference between two types of items.  But in this episode, we'll talk about another, more troublesome side to discrimination: algorithms can be... racist?  Sexist?  Ageist?  Yes to all of the above.  It's an important thing to be aware of, especially when doing people-centered data science.  We'll discuss how and why this happens, and what solutions are out there (or not).

Relevant Links:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/upshot/when-algorithms-discriminate.html
http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/02/machine-learning-and-human-bias-an-uneasy-pair/
http://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/why-machines-discriminate-and-how-to-fix-them/
https://medium.com/@geomblog/when-an-algorithm-isn-t-2b9fe01b9bb5#.auxqi5srz




Discriminatory Algorithms


Algorithms have become a powerful force in the world, but for all the impressive good they do, they sometimes show some worrying tendencies. Algorithms that discriminate are a problem that nobody's found a solution for yet. This week, we discuss why some algorithms appear to be racist, and whether there's anything that can be done about it.

The Techdirt Podcast

Is Your Algorithm Racist?

In this week's podcast InfoQ’s editor-in-chief Charles Humble talks to Data Scientist Cathy O’Neil. O'Neil is the author of the blog mathbabe.org. She was the former Director of the Lede Program in Data Practices at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, Tow Center and was employed as Data Science Consultant at Johnson Research Labs. O'Neil earned a mathematics Ph.D. from Harvard University. Topics discussed include her book “Weapons of Math Destruction,” predictive policing models, the teacher value added model, approaches to auditing algorithms and whether government regulation of the field is needed.

Why listen to this podcast:

 - There is a class of pernicious big data algorithms that are increasingly controlling society but are not open to scrutiny.
 - Flawed data can result in an algorithm that is, for instance, racist and sexist.  For example, the data used in predictive policing models is racist. But people tend to be overly trusting of algorithms because they are mathematical.
 - Data scientists have to make ethical decisions even if they don’t acknowledge it. Often problems stem from an abdication of responsibility.
 - Auditing for algorithms is still a very young field with ongoing academic research exploring approaches.
 - Government regulation of the industry may well be required.

Notes and links can be found on http://bit.ly/2eYVb9q

Weapons of math destruction

0m:43s - The central thesis of the book is that whilst not all algorithms are bad, there is a class of pernicious big data algorithms that are increasingly controlling society.
1m:32s - The classes of algorithm that O'Neil is concerned about - the weapons of math destruction - have three characteristics: they are widespread and impact on important decisions like whether someone can go to college or get a job, they are somehow secret so that the people who are being targeted don’t know they are being scored or don’t understand how their score is computed; and the third characteristic is they are destructive - they ruin lives.
2m:51s - These characteristics undermine the original intention of the algorithm, which is often trying to solve big society problems with the help of data.

More on this:

Quick scan our curated show notes on InfoQ. http://bit.ly/2eYVb9q

You can also subscribe to the InfoQ newsletter to receive weekly updates on the hottest topics from professional software development. bit.ly/24x3IVq

InfoQ Podcast

Show Notes

Cathy O'Neil on Pernicious Machine Learning Algorithms and How to Audit Them

When we covered the Word2Vec algorithm for embedding words, we mentioned parenthetically that the word embeddings it produces can sometimes be a little bit less than ideal--in particular, gender bias from our society can creep into the embeddings and give results that are sexist. For example, occupational words like "doctor" and "nurse" are more highly aligned with "man" or "woman," which can create problems because these word embeddings are used in algorithms that help people find information or make decisions. However, a group of researchers has released a new paper detailing ways to de-bias the embeddings, so we retain gender info that's not particularly problematic (for example, "king" vs. "queen") while correcting bias.

Debiasing Word Embeddings

Writer Sara Wachter-Boettcher explains how racial and sexual bias finds its way from society into digital products (and back into society) as a result of the tech industry's unwillingness to examine its own values, and they way their work engages with and shapes society beyond the mostly white, male corporate campuses of Silicon Valley.

Sara is author of "Technically Wrong: Sexist Apps, Biased Algorithms, and Other Threats of Toxic Tech" from W.W. Norton: http://books.wwnorton.com/books/978-0-393-63463-1/

Social inequality is coded deep within the devices of Silicon Valley.

Open source software is ubiquitous throughout data science, and enables the work of nearly every data scientist in some way or another. Open source projects, however, are disproportionately maintained by a small number of individuals, some of whom are institutionally supported, but many of whom do this maintenance on a purely volunteer basis. The health of the data science ecosystem depends on the support of open source projects, on an individual and institutional level.

https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/xsrt4zs2/release/2

The Data Science Open Source Ecosystem

This is a re-release of an episode that originally ran in October 2019.

If you’re trying to manage a project that serves up analytics data for a few very distinct uses, you’d be wise to consider having custom solutions for each use case that are optimized for the needs and constraints of that use cases. You also wouldn’t be YouTube, which found themselves with this problem (gigantic data needs and several very different use cases of what they needed to do with that data) and went a different way: they built one analytics data system to serve them all. Procella, the system they built, is the topic of our episode today: by deconstructing the system, we dig into the four motivating uses of this system, the complexity they had to introduce to service all four uses simultaneously, and the impressive engineering that has to go into building something that “just works.”

Procella: YouTube's super-system for analytics data storage

A few weeks ago, we put out a call for data scientists interested in issues of race and racism, or people studying how those topics can be studied with data science methods, should get in touch to come talk to our audience about their work. This week we’re excited to bring on Todd Hendricks, Bay Area data scientist and a volunteer who reached out to tell us about his studies with the Stanford Open Policing dataset.

A Data Science Take on Open Policing Data

The data science and artificial intelligence community has made amazing strides in the past few years to algorithmically automate portions of the healthcare process. This episode looks at two computer vision algorithms, one that diagnoses diabetic retinopathy and another that classifies liver cancer, and asks the question—are patients now getting better care, and achieving better outcomes, with these algorithms in the mix? The answer isn’t no, exactly, but it’s not a resounding yes, because these algorithms interact with a very complex system (the healthcare system) and other shortcomings of that system are proving hard to automate away. Getting a faster diagnosis from an image might not be an improvement if the image is now harder to capture (because of strict data quality requirements associated with the algorithm that wouldn’t stop a human doing the same job). Likewise, an algorithm getting a prediction mostly correct might not be an overall benefit if it introduces more dramatic failures when the prediction happens to be wrong. For every data scientist whose work is deployed into some kind of product, and is being used to solve real-world problems, these papers underscore how important and difficult it is to consider all the context around those problems.

A Reality Check on AI-Driven Medical Assistants

All good things must come to an end, including this podcast. This is the last episode we plan to release, and it doesn’t cover data science—it’s mostly reminiscing, thanking our wonderful audience (that’s you!), and marveling at how this thing that started out as a side project grew into a huge part of our lives for over 5 years.

It’s been a ride, and a real pleasure and privilege to talk to you each week. Thanks, best wishes, and good night!

—Katie and Ben