Oscar Bets with David Long

PGA & WGA winners impact the Oscars race, and David Long lends his gambling expertise to help us break down the new betting lines for 5 major categories including Best Picture, Original & Adapted Screenplay, + Animated & Documentary Feature.

What is This Episode? - Top of Show
Welcoming David Long of the Is It Worth It Pod!

PGAs IN REVIEW:
The PGA Best Picture + What It Means for Oscars - 3:38
All Things Hedging  - 10:54
Changing BP Odds After PGAs - 13:23
BAFTA/SAG Odds- 15:48
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Animated Feature - 20:46
Doc Feature - 22:25
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WGAs IN REVIEW:
Emerald Fennell Has a Day/OS Crossover Stats - 28:31
David Ranks His Faves - 31:00
Original Screenplay Odds Movements - 33:48
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Adapted Screenplay:
Borat Means Business? - 37:36
Adapted Betting Odds - 41:07
Is This Still Nomad’s to Lose? - 43:22
BAFTA Baby Betting Odds, What? + David’s Thoughts - 44:30
What If Nomadland Was WGA Eligible? - 47:50
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Place Your Bets - 49:46
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Where To Find David’s Work/LEAVE US A 5* REVIEW! - 51:23
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 54:05

Make sure you guys check out Is It Worth It? The Film Review Podcast, where today’s guest host, David Long and next episode’s guest, Craig Fields partner up with a team of wonderful podcasters and film critics to help listeners decide what’s worth watching in any given week. You can find them isitworthitpodcast.com, and you can follow them at FilmIsWorthIt, 1DavidLong, and IamCrag on Twitter.

David is also the host of their Is It Worth It side series, Road to the Oscars, where I, Also Mike, was their most recent guest for an incredibly fun and in-depth Oscars Nomination reaction show special. Then stay tuned for our next episode, where Craig and I review the massive movie event on HBO MAX, Zach Snyder’s Justice League.

As for this latest episode of Oscar Race Checkpoint, David and I tag teamed a humongous google document of research, stats, and betting odds, all of which we present and discuss in reaction to the recent winners at the Producers and Writers Guilds of America Awards.

Nomadland is looking like a runaway in Best Picture. But we do offer some devil’s advocacy before becoming devils on your shoulders as we analyze the betting. The animated and documentary feature markets will move in opposite directions after Soul and My Octopus Teacher took home PGAs. Then we dissect two intriguing screenplay races, where one newly declared frontrunner gains speed as another may be looking over its shoulder at an unlikely challenger.

Look, we certainly missed Mike 1 during this recording, and we’ll get back into our flow again soon. But both Mike and I are thrilled we could share our feed with David and Craig in what amounted to a glorious dual episode recording. So do be on the lookout for our next episode on The Snyder Cut, and please, check out their show, Is It Worth It?, wherever you get your podcasts.

Otherwise, and as always, we want to hear your thoughts, betting stories, and hunches about these Oscar Races. We’re at MMandOscar on Twitter, and we are at Mike, Mike, and Oscar on Instagram, Facebook, Reddit, and Gmail. You can subscribe / rate / review / like / share / & hear us on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Google Play, Tune In, Spotify, and just about wherever you might listen. We’re Mike, Mike, & Oscar, and we’re making awards season year round, without the stuffiness. Thank you! And do stay safe, everybody.

Betting Odds w/ David Long of Is It Worth It Pod, Post PGAs/WGAs - ORC 3/26/21

What Is This Episode?- Top of Show
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OSCARS 2022 GAMBLING PREVIEW/PREDICTIONS SHOW:
Explaining The Odds - 3:59
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THE INTERTWINED MAYHEM CATEGORIES:
Best Picture - 5:20
Best Director - 13:33
Adapted Screenplay - 17:14
Original Screenplay - 26:57
Film Editing - 35:25
Cinematography - 42:13
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THE ACTING CATEGORIES:
Parleying the Favorites - 45:41
Lead/Supporting Actor- 46:23
Lead/Supporting Actress - 50:03
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THE DUNE SIX:
MakeUp and Hair - 57:22
Costume Design - 1:01:56
Production Design - 1:03:00
VFX - 1:05:58
Sound - 1:07:32
Original Score - 1:08:54
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THE SHOCKINGLY WTF OF ORIGINAL SONG- 1:13:34
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THE FLEE THREE:
International Feature - 1:17:50
Animated Feature - 1:20:15
Documentary Feature - 1:23:18
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THE SHORTS - 1:25:35
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Where To Find Our Work/LEAVE US 5* REVIEWS! - 1:32:31
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:35:02

Oscars 2022 Predictions and Gambling Preview Show - Our Annual AHHH - ORC 3/22/22

What is this episode - Top of Show
Introducing “The Duke of Bettingham” David Long!
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OSCARS 2023 NOVEMBER GAMBLING PREVIEW:
Explaining Odds and Episode Layout - 1:43
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BEST PICTURE:
The Fabelmans - 3:48
Babylon - 9:29
Everything, Everywhere - 12:10
Women Talking, Tar, She Said - 15:04
Which Longshot Could Pose The Biggest Threat? - 21:44
The Path To a Maverick Best Picture Win - 29:28
The Super Duper Long Shots - 31:01
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LEAD ACTRESS:
Cate Still the Leader - 36:00
Then a Mess of Margot, Michelles, and Others - 38:33
Florence Pugh Puts Forth Fun in The Wonder - 46:39
JLaw, Frances, Hathaway Round Out The Longshots - 48:35
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LEAD ACTOR:
Brendan Fraser is Entrenched as a Favorite - 51:43
Who’s Actually #2? Is Hugh Jackman Still in the Top 5? - 56:50
Wide Open for Noms, Maybe Not for Winners - 1:00:28
The Tom Cruise of it All - 1:06:19
Possible Impending Backlash for The Whale - 1:10:18
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BEST DIRECTOR:
Spielberg, Polley, Chazelle, Daniels, Maria Shraeder Make Top 5 Odds - 1:13:24
David Reviews Bardo - 1:18:22
The Rest of the Field - 1:23:13
Super Long Shots - 1:25:58
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Where to Find David’s Work/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:34:45
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:36:39

2023 Oscars Gambling Preview 1.0 w/ David Long! - ORC 11/19/22

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham David Long!
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An Introduction To Gambling Odds - 2:09
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2023 OSCARS GAMBLING PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture: The Heaviest Favorite in a Decade - 4:40
Director: A Fox in The Daniels’ House? - 18:46
Lead Actor: The Ballad of David’s Wallet in Brendan’s Hands - 26:53
Lead Actress: The Two Queens Battle - 37:23
Supporting Actress: Campaign vs Credentials vs Conviction - 45:33
Supporting Actor: One Final Dig at BAFTA’s BAFTA-ing - 54:05
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Original Screenplay: Does Banshees Win Anything? - 57:33
Adapted Screenplay: Hey Speaking of BAFTA Success… - 1:03:00
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Animated Feature: It’s Pinocchio. Moving On… - 1:10:02
International Feature: It’s All Quiet. Moving On… - 1:13:02
Doc Feature: It’s a Mess. Moving On… - 1:15:01
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Cinematography: This Used to be Close - 1:20:22
Editing: Is This The Tech EEAAO Wins? - 1:23:10
Sound: Is This The Tech Maverick Wins? - 1:26:47
VFX: Blue Man 2-oup - 1:29:24
Original Score: Babylon, Sneaky Oscars Player? - 1:31:30
Original Song: Rihanna, Gaga, and Naatu Naatu - 1:39:00
Production Design: Babylon, Leader - 1:43:33
Costume Design: Two Industry Titans Do Battle - 1:46:11
Makeup and Hair: Elvis Has Become The Favorite - 1:49:00
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Animated Short: We Go FAR Too Long On This - 1:52:23
Live Action Short: An Underrated Category Gem - 1:58:52
Doc Short: Malala’s Moment? - 2:00:17
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David’s Work/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 2:03:33
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 2:04:37

Oscar Gambling Preview + Predictions w/ David Long! - ORC 3/8/23

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing the Duke of Bettingham: David Long!
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SUMMER OSCARS BETTING GUIDE:
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Best Picture:
The Current Big 3: Oppenheimer, Killers, Past Lives - 6:25
The Barbie Longshot - 16:10
The War Movie/Holdovers Problem - 19:54
The Longshots Beyond 10:1 - 23:18
Amazon’s FYP History - 26:32
The Strikes’ Impact on Oscars Season - 31:55
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Best Actor:
Is It FINALLY Cooper Time? - 36:12
Leo vs Cillian at the Top - 40:00
Which Longshot Smells Best? - 43:58
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Best Actress:
An Important Disclaimer - 46:16
MMO Clearly Runs Vegas - 47:13
The Longshots - 51:30
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Best Director:
Why Nolan Now May Be Great Value - 53:35
AlsoMike Likes Coppola - 58:15
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Supporting Actor:
MMO Runs Vegas, P. 2 - 1:00:50
The Robert DeNiro Conspiracy - 1:04:13
Gosling’s Ken Lane - 1:06:10
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Supporting Actress:
Bookies Be Cheeky - 1:11:13
Someone Unnamed? - 1:15:09
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Dave’s Work/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:17:35
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:20:10

Oscars Summer Gambling Guide w/ David Long - ORC 7/29/23

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
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GOLDEN GLOBES/OSCARS GAMBLING PREVIEW:
Explaining Betting Odds - 2:04
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BEST PICTURE:
Delusional Confidence in Barbie - 3:24
American Fiction Is a Mystery - 16:13
If You HAD to Bet $100 Right Now… - 20:37
Globes BP Drama: Oppy a Shockingly High Fave - 21:32
A Quick Case for Maestro - 30:02
GG BP C/M Lets You Gamble on Your Gamble - 32:00
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BEST DIRECTOR - A SAFE BET? - 43:02
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Oscars Odds - 50:52
How Much of a Threat is Emily Blunt? - 54:50
Randolph a Sneaky Nolan-esque Heavy Favorite - 56:56
Beware the BIG Awards Season Upset - 1:00:08
If You HAD to Bet $100… - 1:02:29
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SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The Oscars Odds - 1:03:48
RDJ in a Close One? - 1:08:30
Betting $100 on the Globes… - 1:12:28
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LEAD ACTRESS:
Oscars/Globe Drama Odds - 1:14:40
Gladstone vs Stone vs Margot - 1:17:35
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LEAD ACTOR:
Odds - 1:27:50
Murphy, and Jeffrey, and Giamatti, and Cooper, and… - 1:32:10
Dave is All In on Bradley - 1:38:09
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Dave’s Work/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:45:04
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:47:20

Pre-Globes Gambling Preview w/ David Long! - ORC 12/19/23

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing David Long, The Duke of Bettingham!
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OSCARS PREDICTIONS AND GAMBLING PREVIEW:
Explaining the Odds - 2:20
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Best Picture: Oppenheimer’s Unreal Odds - 6:26
Director: Is Christopher’s Crowning Day - 17:34
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ACTING CATEGORIES:
Will SAG Go 4 for 4? - 20:30
Lead Actress: All the Stats Favor Which “Stone?” - 22:12
Lead Actor: Giamatti Isn’t DEAD Dead…Yet - 35:16
Supporting Categories: En Route to a 21-0 Record - 40:02
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Screenplay Categories: The First Serious Upset Chance - 51:08
International Feature: Can I Interest You in a Best Picture Nom? - 58:49
Animated Feature: 2 Horse Race Comes to Its Wire - 1:00:31
Doc Feature: We Have a Front Runner. Again. Uh Oh. - 1:03:24
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Music Categories: Dianne Warren May Attack - 1:07:06
Cinematography: a 1 Seed vs a 16 Seed - 1:15:09
Editing/Sound: Oppy Primed to be Upset? - 1:16:46
VFX: Different Campaigns Yielding Different Results - 1:22:31
Costume/Production Design: The Barbie/Poor Things Split - 1:28:40
Makeup and Hair: Maestro’s Lone Win? - 1:34:27
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Quick Shorts Predictions - 1:39:14
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Where to Find Dave/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:51:02
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:52:55

Oscars 2024 Predictions + Gambling Preview w/ David Long! - ep 453

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing the Duke of Bettingham - David Long!
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YEAR IN PREVIEW 1: THE FIRST BETTING LINES
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LEAD ACTRESS:
The Top 5’s Odds - 4:58
Emma Stone - 6:22
Lady Gaga - 12:40
Soairse Ronan - 19:44
Angelina Jolie - 25:31
Jessica Lange - 29:32
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The Field - 33:58
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LEAD ACTOR:
The Top 5’s Odds - 44:40
Colman Domingo - 45:25
Daniel Craig - 50:54
Ralph Fiennes - 54:03
Jesse Eisenberg/Sebastian Stan - 58:47
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The Field - 1:01:59
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Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:15:50

Year in Preview 1: The Early Betting Odds w/ David Long! - ORC 4/3/24

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing the Duke of Bettingham - David Long!
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YEAR IN PREVIEW 2: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, SUPPORTING CATS:
.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The Top 5’s Odds - 2:13
Samuel L Jackson - 3:35
The Field - 7:10
Is The Eventual Winner Listed Here? - 15:36
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Top 5’s Odds - 16:07
Deadwyler, Collette, Manville - 17:25
The Field - 21:24
Is The Eventual Winner Listed Here? - 28:52
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BEST DIRECTOR:
The Top 5’s Odds - 29:35
Villaneuve - 31:35
The Field - 37:10
Is The Eventual Winner Listed Here? - 47:30
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BEST PICTURE:
The Weight and Legs of Dune 2 - 48:40
Sing Sing on the CODA Track - 54:02
Blitz and the BAFTA Boost - 57:09
Megalopolis…What Is It? - 1:00:27
The Field - 1:06:10
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The BEST Line Of Them All - 1:10:15
And The Long-shots - 1:12:36
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Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:20:53

YIP 2: The Lone MUST BET Early Line for Oscars '25 w/ David Long! - ORC 4/6/24

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham - David Long!
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SUMMER GAMBLING PREVIEW - BEST PICTURE:
Which Movie Has The Most Money On It Currently? - 2:43
Define “Value Betting” - 4:55
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The Current Betting Favorites:
Dune 2 (+250) - 8:40
(and a History Lesson in Just How Bizarre Dune’s Odds Are - 10:56)
Sing Sing (+400) - 17:12
Blitz (+650) - 20:34
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The 10 to 1 and Longer Shots:
Joker 2 (+1200) - 25:22
Anora (+1400) - 31:33
A Real Pain (+1400) - 35:15
Conclave (+1400) - 36:56
Nickel Boys (+1600) - 41:34
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The 20 to 1 Group - 44:59
(Nosferatu, Kinds of Kindness, Bird, Here, The Long Game, Fancy Dance)
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The 25 to 1 Group - 48:47
(Megalopolis, Queer, The Piano Lesson, Gladiator 2, Will & Harper, The Apprentice, More)
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The Super Duper Long Shots - 1:05:44
(Furiosa, Hard Truths, Maria, Saturday Night, Wicked, Inside Out 2, More)
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What About the As Yet Unlisted Movies? - 1:17:33
(Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door, Beetlejuice 2, More)
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 1:24:34

The Current Odds for the Best Picture Race w/ David Long! - ORC 8/14/24

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME DAVID LONG! - :45
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HOLIDAY BETS W/ DAVID LONG, PART 1: OSCARS AND GLOBES BP:
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GAMBLING TERMS, EXPLAINED - 1:48
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CURRENT OSCARS BEST PICTURE ODDS:
The Field, and Anora - 4:22
The Brutalist is…Long - 7:16
Splitting Season and a Possible BAFTA Preview - 11:28
Placing Bets on Oscars BP Right now - 16:40
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Globes Best Picture Drama - 30:51
Best Picture Comedy or Musical - 37:10
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 50:37

Betting on Best Picture at Oscars and Globes - Holiday Bets w/ David Long Part 1

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME DAVID LONG! - :45
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HOLIDAY BETS W/ DAVID LONG, PART 2: GOLDEN GLOBES 2025:
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GAMBLING TERMS, EXPLAINED - 2:32
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GOLDEN GLOBES GAMBLING PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
David is Serving Berger’s - 4:34
Emilia Perez Needs to Win This Globe - 17:32
And Original Song, Too/Cinematic Achievement Trophy- 20:15
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Best Actor Drama: Everything Fiennes…Right? -24:35
Best Actor C/M: In A Word, A Mess - 32:10
Lead Actress Drama: A Mike and an Upset - 36:37
Lead Actress C/M: A Preview - 45:52
Supporting Actor - 50:11
Supporting Actress - 56:22
Animated Featire - 1:01:56
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 1:06:50

Golden Globes Gambling Preview + Predix w/ David Long, Part 2! - ORC 12/26/24

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME THE DUKE, DAVID LONG!
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OSCARS PREDICTION + GAMBLING PREVIEW SHOW:
Explaining Odds + Welcoming Our Sponsor: Kalshi! - 2:02
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Sign Up kalshi.com/mmo and bet on the Oscars!
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Best Picture: Anora v Conclave - Literally, Place Your Bets - 8:47
(Predictions - 22:43)
Director: DGA All The Way? - 28:18
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Lead Actress: 
Odds + Any Love For Fernanda? - 33:36
Mikey vs Demi. Demi vs Mikey…And Glenn?! - 35:37
Predictions - 46:48
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Lead Actor: But You Can’t REALLY Pick Timmy… - 51:39
Supporting Actress/Actor  + Why Historic Upsets Are In Play - 1:04:40
Screenplays: A Fight and a Blowout - 1:11:56
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Editing - 1:24:52
Cinematography - 1:30:02
International Feature (You Need to Hear The Odds) - 1:35:33
Original Song (Dianne Warren?!?!) - 1:42:38
Original Score - 1:50:50
Best Sound - 1:53:03
VFX - 1:57:05
Animated Feature - 2:02:01
Doc Feature - 2:07:21
The Wicked Ones (Costumes/Production) - 2:17:23
MUAH - 2:20:30
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Live Action Short - 2:25:18
Documentary Short - 2:30:19
Animated Short - 2:33:51
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MMO’s Kalshi Info - 2:37:48
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Where to Find Dave’s Work - 2:39:23 
https://x.com/1DavidLong 
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 2:40:58
https://linktr.ee/mikemikeandoscar

2025 Oscars Predictions and Gambling Picks w/ David Long! - ORC 2/27/25

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham David Long!
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SUMMER BEST PICTURE BETS:
Explaining Odds in Gambling - 5:01
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After the Hunt, Sentimental Value - 8:51
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Small Player - 18:29
Avatar 3, Highest to Lowest, Sinners - 29:00
Frankenstein, The Lost Bus, One Battle, Life of Chuck, Sorry Baby - 35:23
.
Bugonia, Pressure - 44:40
BBB Journey, Springsteen, Smashing Machine - 48:00
Die My Love, Roofman, Wicked 2 - 52:24
Anemone, History of Sound, F1, Mother Mary - 1:00:20
Train Dreams, Jay Kelly, Phoenician Scheme, Jay Kelly - 1:08:00
MI8, Wake Up Dead Man, Eddington, Zootopia 2, Others - 1:11:45
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Bets We’re Making With $100 - 1:14:02
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Support Dave!/What’s Next From MMO/Leave Us 5 Stars! - 1:18:00

Summer Best Picture Bets w/ David Long! - ORC 6/12/25

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham David Long!
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SUMMER OSCAR BETS, PART II:
Explaining Odds in Gambling (featuring Kalshi Odds) - 4:05
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Lead Actor: Who The Duke Claims Offers the Best ROI- 7:40
Lead Actress: A Conversation of Many “No” Bets - 20:06
Supp Actor: The First Lines of the Season - 28:24
Supp Actress: Maybe the Most Wide Open Category - 37:36
Director: A Universally Agreed to Nom, and Then… - 45:02
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Documenatry Feature: Or Where Dave and Mike Threaten AlsoMike’s Life - 53:25
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Support Dave!/What’s Next From MMO/Leave Us 5 Stars! - 57:43

Summer Oscar Bets p.2 w/ David Long - AlsoMike's Life is in Danger! - ORC 6/15/25

MMO is talk radio for movie fans with weekly news shows, reviews, previews, and special guests. We celebrate the Oscars by making awards season year round, without the stuffiness. If you love cinema, if you love showbiz, welcome home.