Oscar Bets with David Long

PGA & WGA winners impact the Oscars race, and David Long lends his gambling expertise to help us break down the new betting lines for 5 major categories including Best Picture, Original & Adapted Screenplay, + Animated & Documentary Feature.

What is This Episode? - Top of Show
Welcoming David Long of the Is It Worth It Pod!

PGAs IN REVIEW:
The PGA Best Picture + What It Means for Oscars - 3:38
All Things Hedging  - 10:54
Changing BP Odds After PGAs - 13:23
BAFTA/SAG Odds- 15:48
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Animated Feature - 20:46
Doc Feature - 22:25
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WGAs IN REVIEW:
Emerald Fennell Has a Day/OS Crossover Stats - 28:31
David Ranks His Faves - 31:00
Original Screenplay Odds Movements - 33:48
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Adapted Screenplay:
Borat Means Business? - 37:36
Adapted Betting Odds - 41:07
Is This Still Nomad’s to Lose? - 43:22
BAFTA Baby Betting Odds, What? + David’s Thoughts - 44:30
What If Nomadland Was WGA Eligible? - 47:50
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Place Your Bets - 49:46
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Where To Find David’s Work/LEAVE US A 5* REVIEW! - 51:23
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 54:05

Make sure you guys check out Is It Worth It? The Film Review Podcast, where today’s guest host, David Long and next episode’s guest, Craig Fields partner up with a team of wonderful podcasters and film critics to help listeners decide what’s worth watching in any given week. You can find them isitworthitpodcast.com, and you can follow them at FilmIsWorthIt, 1DavidLong, and IamCrag on Twitter.

David is also the host of their Is It Worth It side series, Road to the Oscars, where I, Also Mike, was their most recent guest for an incredibly fun and in-depth Oscars Nomination reaction show special. Then stay tuned for our next episode, where Craig and I review the massive movie event on HBO MAX, Zach Snyder’s Justice League.

As for this latest episode of Oscar Race Checkpoint, David and I tag teamed a humongous google document of research, stats, and betting odds, all of which we present and discuss in reaction to the recent winners at the Producers and Writers Guilds of America Awards.

Nomadland is looking like a runaway in Best Picture. But we do offer some devil’s advocacy before becoming devils on your shoulders as we analyze the betting. The animated and documentary feature markets will move in opposite directions after Soul and My Octopus Teacher took home PGAs. Then we dissect two intriguing screenplay races, where one newly declared frontrunner gains speed as another may be looking over its shoulder at an unlikely challenger.

Look, we certainly missed Mike 1 during this recording, and we’ll get back into our flow again soon. But both Mike and I are thrilled we could share our feed with David and Craig in what amounted to a glorious dual episode recording. So do be on the lookout for our next episode on The Snyder Cut, and please, check out their show, Is It Worth It?, wherever you get your podcasts.

Otherwise, and as always, we want to hear your thoughts, betting stories, and hunches about these Oscar Races. We’re at MMandOscar on Twitter, and we are at Mike, Mike, and Oscar on Instagram, Facebook, Reddit, and Gmail. You can subscribe / rate / review / like / share / & hear us on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Google Play, Tune In, Spotify, and just about wherever you might listen. We’re Mike, Mike, & Oscar, and we’re making awards season year round, without the stuffiness. Thank you! And do stay safe, everybody.

Betting Odds w/ David Long of Is It Worth It Pod, Post PGAs/WGAs - ORC 3/26/21

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
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GOLDEN GLOBES NOMS REACAP/REAX:
General Thoughts -Show Start
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Best Picture Drama - 2:27
BP Comedy/Musical - 5:26
Cinematic Achievement + Oscar Crossover Stats - 8:02
Director - 12:05
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Lead Acting Categories - 16:09
Supporting Categories - 30:08
Screenplay - 36:41
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Animated Feature - 39:17
Music Categories - 42:31
Non English Language Film/European Film Awards - 50:21
Doc Feature - 53:02
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Nom Tallies by Movie - 55:32
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Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:04:38
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:05:21

Golden Globes Noms Revealed, Ranked, Rancored! - ORC 12/12/23

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
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CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS:
Best Picture Stays Continental/Nom Tallies - 1:40
Director - 9:32
Screenplay Categories Aren’t What They Once Seemed - 14:06
Lead Actress/Actor Have Their Established Pools - 20:37
Both Supporting Categories Have Whittled Down Too - 28:25
Best Ensemble/Young Actor or Actress - 34:26
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Musical Categories - 36:11
Foreign Language Film/Animated Film - 40:59
Cinematography/Film Editing - 44:44
Costume Design/Production Design - 47:42
MUAH/VFX - 51:26
Best Comedy - 55:31
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Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 57:38
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 58:13

Critics Choice 2024 NomNomNomNom NomNomNoms - ORC 12/14/23

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
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GOLDEN GLOBES/OSCARS GAMBLING PREVIEW:
Explaining Betting Odds - 2:04
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BEST PICTURE:
Delusional Confidence in Barbie - 3:24
American Fiction Is a Mystery - 16:13
If You HAD to Bet $100 Right Now… - 20:37
Globes BP Drama: Oppy a Shockingly High Fave - 21:32
A Quick Case for Maestro - 30:02
GG BP C/M Lets You Gamble on Your Gamble - 32:00
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BEST DIRECTOR - A SAFE BET? - 43:02
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Oscars Odds - 50:52
How Much of a Threat is Emily Blunt? - 54:50
Randolph a Sneaky Nolan-esque Heavy Favorite - 56:56
Beware the BIG Awards Season Upset - 1:00:08
If You HAD to Bet $100… - 1:02:29
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SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The Oscars Odds - 1:03:48
RDJ in a Close One? - 1:08:30
Betting $100 on the Globes… - 1:12:28
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LEAD ACTRESS:
Oscars/Globe Drama Odds - 1:14:40
Gladstone vs Stone vs Margot - 1:17:35
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LEAD ACTOR:
Odds - 1:27:50
Murphy, and Jeffrey, and Giamatti, and Cooper, and… - 1:32:10
Dave is All In on Bradley - 1:38:09
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Dave’s Work/Your Homework/LEAVE US 5 STARS! - 1:45:04
Words of Wisdom/What’s Coming Next - 1:47:20

Pre-Globes Gambling Preview w/ David Long! - ORC 12/19/23

"Maestro" had its world premiere at the 2023 Venice International Film Festival, where it competed for the Golden Lion. It is the second film to be directed by Academy Award-nominee Bradley Cooper following "A Star Is Born" and features him and Academy Award-nominee Carey Mulligan transforming into Leonard Bernstein and his wife, Felicia Montealegre. The two were kind enough to spend a little bit of time talking with me about their work on the film, and I also got the chance to speak with the film's Costume Designer, Academy Award-winner Mark Bridges. Dan Bayer also interviewed Academy Award-winning Supervising Sound Editor Richard King. All three interviews can be listened to below. Please be sure to check out the film, which is now streaming on Netflix and is up for your consideration in all eligible categories at the 96th Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Costume Design and Best Sound. Thank you, and enjoy!

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A Behind The Scenes Look At "Maestro"

"Flamin' Hot" premiered at the 2023 SXSW Film Festival, where it received positive reviews and was later released on Hulu and Disney+ over the summer. Academy Award-winner Diane Warren has been nominated at the Oscars 14 times in competitive categories. This year, she's shortlisted for writing the song for the film titled "The Fire Inside," performed by Becky G. Nominated already by the Society of Composers and Lyricists and Hollywood Music in Media, she could very well earn her 15th competitive nomination this year for the song which has over 2 million views on YouTube. Warren was kind enough to spend some time talking with us about her work on the song, which you can listen to below. Please be sure to check out the film, which is now available to stream and is up for your consideration at the 96th Academy Awards for Best Original Song. Thank you, and enjoy!

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Interview With "Flamin' Hot" Songwriter Diane Warren

Live reaction to the Oscar nominations with Alan Ng and Chris Gore. Will Barbenheimer dominate the nominations? Will we yet again be disappointed as Hollywood pats itself on the back? Be a part of this special event!

Oscar Nominations Special 2024

"The Teachers' Lounge" premiered at the 2023 Berlin International Film Festival, receiving critical acclaim for its direction, writing, and lead performance from Leonie Benesch. It went on to play many other film festivals throughout the year, ultimately receiving Germany's selection for Best International Feature Film at this year's Academy Awards. Director and co-writer İlker Çatak was kind enough to speak with us following the film's Oscar nomination for Best International Feature Film to discuss his experience making the film, what went into the film's screenplay, how the film's tension was influenced by "Uncut Gems" and more. Please be sure to check out the film, which is up for your consideration for Best International Feature Film. Thank you, and enjoy!

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Interview With "The Teachers' Lounge" Director & Co-Writer İlker Çatak

THIS IS A PREVIEW PODCAST. NOT THE FULL EPISODE. Please check out the full podcast episode on our Patreon Page by subscribing over at - https://www.patreon.com/NextBestPicture

The 96th Academy Awards are over. Another awards season is behind us, and it was indeed a night to remember with some tight races, deserved wins, and a respectful ceremony that honored the nominees and the art of cinema. We witnessed powerful, moving speeches, shocking wins, and memories that will last a lifetime. Daniel Howat, Ema Sasic, and Alyssa Christian reacted to the winners moments after the ceremony ended last night, while Will Mavity and Cody Dericks joined me the following day to discuss the show too. I combined both conversations together for your enjoyment. Join us as we go over our reactions to the winners, their speeches, and what we thought of the show overall, including Jimmy Kimmel's opening monologue, the musical performances, in memoriam, and more. Please listen to the podcast below or subscribe to it. We want to give a massive shoutout to everyone in the NBP Film Community who has supported us through another awards season. Thank you, and enjoy.

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Please subscribe on...

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Our Immediate Reactions To The 96th Academy Awards

"It's What's Inside" had its world premiere at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival, where it received positive reviews for its twisted party-game concept, ensemble cast, and dark humor. Director and screenwriter Greg Jardin was kind enough to spend some time talking with us about his feature directorial debut, which you can listen to below. Please be sure to check out the horror-comedy film, which is currently available to stream on Netflix. Thank you, and enjoy!

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Interview With "It's What's Inside" Director/Writer Greg Jardin

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME DAVID LONG! - :45
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HOLIDAY BETS W/ DAVID LONG, PART 1: OSCARS AND GLOBES BP:
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GAMBLING TERMS, EXPLAINED - 1:48
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CURRENT OSCARS BEST PICTURE ODDS:
The Field, and Anora - 4:22
The Brutalist is…Long - 7:16
Splitting Season and a Possible BAFTA Preview - 11:28
Placing Bets on Oscars BP Right now - 16:40
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Globes Best Picture Drama - 30:51
Best Picture Comedy or Musical - 37:10
.
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 50:37

Betting on Best Picture at Oscars and Globes - Holiday Bets w/ David Long Part 1

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME DAVID LONG! - :45
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HOLIDAY BETS W/ DAVID LONG, PART 2: GOLDEN GLOBES 2025:
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GAMBLING TERMS, EXPLAINED - 2:32
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GOLDEN GLOBES GAMBLING PICKS AND PREDICTIONS:
David is Serving Berger’s - 4:34
Emilia Perez Needs to Win This Globe - 17:32
And Original Song, Too/Cinematic Achievement Trophy- 20:15
.
Best Actor Drama: Everything Fiennes…Right? -24:35
Best Actor C/M: In A Word, A Mess - 32:10
Lead Actress Drama: A Mike and an Upset - 36:37
Lead Actress C/M: A Preview - 45:52
Supporting Actor - 50:11
Supporting Actress - 56:22
Animated Featire - 1:01:56
.
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 1:06:50

Golden Globes Gambling Preview + Predix w/ David Long, Part 2! - ORC 12/26/24

For this week's main podcast review, I am joined by Nadia Dalimonte, Josh Parham & Daniel Howat to review and discuss the latest film in the "Wallace & Gromit" franchise: "Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl" starring Ben Whitehead, Peter Kay, Lauren Patel & Reece Shearsmith. It is the sixth "Wallace & Gromit" film and the second feature-length film after the Oscar-winning "The Curse of the Were-Rabbit" (2005) with the return of the villainous penguin Feathers McGraw from "The Wrong Trousers" (1993), which takes revenge on Wallace and Gromit by reprogramming their robotic garden gnome Wallace has become so dependent on. What did we think of the story, the stop-motion animation, the comedy, and the continued adventures of everyone's favorite Aardman creations? Tune in as we discuss these topics, its awards season chances, and more in our SPOILER-FILLED review. Thank you for listening, and enjoy!

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"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl"

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
WELCOME THE DUKE, DAVID LONG!
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OSCARS PREDICTION + GAMBLING PREVIEW SHOW:
Explaining Odds + Welcoming Our Sponsor: Kalshi! - 2:02
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Sign Up kalshi.com/mmo and bet on the Oscars!
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Best Picture: Anora v Conclave - Literally, Place Your Bets - 8:47
(Predictions - 22:43)
Director: DGA All The Way? - 28:18
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Lead Actress: 
Odds + Any Love For Fernanda? - 33:36
Mikey vs Demi. Demi vs Mikey…And Glenn?! - 35:37
Predictions - 46:48
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Lead Actor: But You Can’t REALLY Pick Timmy… - 51:39
Supporting Actress/Actor  + Why Historic Upsets Are In Play - 1:04:40
Screenplays: A Fight and a Blowout - 1:11:56
.
Editing - 1:24:52
Cinematography - 1:30:02
International Feature (You Need to Hear The Odds) - 1:35:33
Original Song (Dianne Warren?!?!) - 1:42:38
Original Score - 1:50:50
Best Sound - 1:53:03
VFX - 1:57:05
Animated Feature - 2:02:01
Doc Feature - 2:07:21
The Wicked Ones (Costumes/Production) - 2:17:23
MUAH - 2:20:30
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Live Action Short - 2:25:18
Documentary Short - 2:30:19
Animated Short - 2:33:51
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MMO’s Kalshi Info - 2:37:48
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Where to Find Dave’s Work - 2:39:23 
https://x.com/1DavidLong 
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WHAT’S NEXT/LEAVE US 5 STARS/WORDS OF WISDOM - 2:40:58
https://linktr.ee/mikemikeandoscar

2025 Oscars Predictions and Gambling Picks w/ David Long! - ORC 2/27/25

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham David Long!
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SUMMER BEST PICTURE BETS:
Explaining Odds in Gambling - 5:01
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After the Hunt, Sentimental Value - 8:51
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Small Player - 18:29
Avatar 3, Highest to Lowest, Sinners - 29:00
Frankenstein, The Lost Bus, One Battle, Life of Chuck, Sorry Baby - 35:23
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Bugonia, Pressure - 44:40
BBB Journey, Springsteen, Smashing Machine - 48:00
Die My Love, Roofman, Wicked 2 - 52:24
Anemone, History of Sound, F1, Mother Mary - 1:00:20
Train Dreams, Jay Kelly, Phoenician Scheme, Jay Kelly - 1:08:00
MI8, Wake Up Dead Man, Eddington, Zootopia 2, Others - 1:11:45
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Bets We’re Making With $100 - 1:14:02
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Support Dave!/What’s Next From MMO/Leave Us 5 Stars! - 1:18:00

Summer Best Picture Bets w/ David Long! - ORC 6/12/25

What Is This Episode - Top of Show
Introducing The Duke of Bettingham David Long!
.
SUMMER OSCAR BETS, PART II:
Explaining Odds in Gambling (featuring Kalshi Odds) - 4:05
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Lead Actor: Who The Duke Claims Offers the Best ROI- 7:40
Lead Actress: A Conversation of Many “No” Bets - 20:06
Supp Actor: The First Lines of the Season - 28:24
Supp Actress: Maybe the Most Wide Open Category - 37:36
Director: A Universally Agreed to Nom, and Then… - 45:02
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Documenatry Feature: Or Where Dave and Mike Threaten AlsoMike’s Life - 53:25
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Support Dave!/What’s Next From MMO/Leave Us 5 Stars! - 57:43

Summer Oscar Bets p.2 w/ David Long - AlsoMike's Life is in Danger! - ORC 6/15/25

MMO is talk radio for movie fans with weekly news shows, reviews, previews, and special guests. We celebrate the Oscars by making awards season year round, without the stuffiness. If you love cinema, if you love showbiz, welcome home.

Betting Odds w/ David Long of Is It Worth It Pod, Post PGAs/WGAs - ORC 3/26/21

Mike, Mike, and Oscar

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