2025 will be headlined by the domestic and global impact of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Key diplomatic and security shifts will occur in the Russia/Ukraine conflict as well as in the Middle East, while geopolitical tensions between the United States and China will intensify, both bilaterally and in the wider Indo-Pacific.

Read the Annual Forecast here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/2025-annual-forecast/

Global Hotspots: Outlook for 2025

This week, the Hamas/Israel ceasefire collapsed after Israeli forces launched an air and ground assault in Gaza, while the U.S. Navy engaged al-Houthi targets in Yemen. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, while Russian missile and drone attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, reports emerged that the U.S. Department of Energy designated South Korea as a “sensitive country,” potentially hindering its technology cooperation with the U.S., while the Trump administration tightened sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250321/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Gaza Ceasefire Breaks Down; U.S. Targets Houthis

The second quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the reverberations of U.S. policy shifts initiated by President Donald Trump’s administration in the first quarter, primarily related to global trade issues and its changing posture to hotspots around the world.

Read the full 2025 Q2 Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q2-2025-forecast/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Q2 2025 Forecast

This week, President Donald Trump’s unveiling of reciprocal tariffs, including ones targeting China, Taiwan, the EU, and Southeast Asia, sent global markets falling and drew strong worldwide condemnation. Washington expressed frustration at Moscow’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine, as both Congress and the White House proposed sanctions and tariffs against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel deployed additional troops to Gaza, while the U.S. deployed a second aircraft carrier near Iran and renewed its threats to bomb Iran if it refuses to discuss a nuclear deal. In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan and struck an agreement to deepen economic ties with South Korea and Japan.

Global Hotspots: Trump Announces Global Tariffs; U.S. Threatens Iran

This week, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement sent global markets tumbling, he announced a 90-day pause on the levies for countries that did not retaliate, reducing tariffs to 10% for all imports. The U.S., however, increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to raise its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% and to engage in strong outreach to the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Australia. In Ukraine, Russian and Ukrainian forces launched new offensives while officials from the U.S. and Russia met in Istanbul for normalization talks and separately conducted a prisoner swap. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to conduct a first round of negotiations Saturday in Oman on a nuclear deal, while Israel and Türkiye discussed deconfliction of their operations in Syria.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250411/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Pauses Global Reciprocal Tariffs, Except for China

This week, global trade tensions and market uncertainty persisted despite the U.S. pause on reciprocal tariffs, while a first round of targeted countries reached out to Washington. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on a multistage tour of Southeast Asia, signing cooperation deals with the leaders of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Bilateral trade escalations continued with the U.S., which imposed new sanctions on China. In the Middle East, U.S. and Iranian officials continued direct negotiations on a nuclear deal, and Israel announced its troops would remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria “indefinitely.” U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials met in Paris to discuss ongoing peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the U.S. extended sanctions on Russian ships and Russia continued bombing Ukrainian cities.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250418/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: China Pushes Back Against U.S. Tariffs; U.S.-Iran Negotiations Pick Up

The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is launching a new podcast series, “Lebanese Logic,” hosted by the center’s Resident Senior Fellow Faysal Itani. The series focuses on Lebanon’s political dynamics the future of Hezbollah, and important role in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In this inaugural episode, Itani and New Lines Institute Senior Director Nicholas A. Heras forecast Lebanon’s politics and foreign policy in the context of the rapidly shifting regional developments in the Middle East.

Is A Post-Hezbollah Lebanon Happening Now?

This week, the U.S. submitted a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that was swiftly rejected by Kyiv, and the Russian military continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities. In the Indo-Pacific, Beijing denied assertions by the Trump administration that trade negotiations were ongoing, calling for the U.S. to remove its tariffs first, while South Korean companies were warned by Beijing not to sell products containing Chinese critical materials to the United States. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran agreed to continue nuclear negotiations following last weekend’s meeting, while Egypt and Qatar presented a plan for a five-year truce for the war in Gaza, as Israeli operations continued in the territory. 

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250425/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Makes Final Push For Ukraine Peace Deal

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap podcast series, New Lines’ own Rachel Nelson hosts Andrey X, an independent reporter and human rights advocate documenting Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Together, they discuss Andrey’s own move from Russia to live in Palestine, the developing volatile situation for Palestinians in the West Bank, and how the international community can respond to the crisis.

Acts of Terrorism by Israeli Settlers Are Intensifying in the West Bank

This week, the U.S. and Ukraine signed a critical minerals deal after months of tense negotiations, while Russia proposed a ceasefire from May 8 to 10. In the Indo-Pacific, effects of the U.S.-China trade dispute are being felt across export sectors, while Pakistan warned of imminent attacks from India following last week’s mass shooting in Kashmir. In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran are set to continue nuclear negotiations following recent progress in talks, while British and American forces launched new airstrikes against al-Houthi rebel targets in Yemen.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250502/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. and Ukraine Sign Minerals Deal; India-Pakistan Tensions Flare

New Lines Institute focuses on issues at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics.

For more on Newlines Institute, please visit our website: www.newlinesinstitute.org

Global Hotspots: Outlook for 2025

New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy

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