This week, Israel escalated its military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, while the U.S. weighed potential involvement in the conflict. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan added Chinese companies to its export blacklist, limiting their access to advanced microchips, while concerns lingered over the impact of Chinese rare earth elements export curbs despite last week’s U.S./China trade agreement. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian operations halted Russian advances on Sumy, while leaders of the G7 discussed new sanctions against Russia.

Read the Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-202506020/                                             

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Weighs Direct Involvement in Israel/Iran Conflict

The third quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the ripple effects of military escalation between Israel and Iran, as well as U.S. intervention, while regional states will seek to push for a diplomatic agreement over Iran’s nuclear program.

Read the full Q3  Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/q3-2025-forecast/                                     

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/


Global Hotspots: Q3 Forecast Outlook

This week in the Middle East, Iran questioned cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and reportedly received a delivery of Chinese air defense systems, while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz unveiled plans to relocate Gazans to third countries. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration at Russia’s lack of meaningful ceasefire efforts and renewed U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine, while both the U.S. Congress and the EU are preparing new sanctions against Moscow. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump renewed his threats of tariffs against ASEAN countries, plus Japan and South Korea. He further threatened to levy additional tariffs against Brazil and on all copper exports to the U.S. and extended the deadline for all trade negotiations to Aug. 1.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250711/                                           

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Iran and Gaza Tensions Linger; U.S. Threatens New Global Tariffs


This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in ceasefire talks with Ukraine, while U.S. officials met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv to discuss the delivery of U.S. weapons. In the Indo-Pacific, Australia and China hailed a reset in their trade relations following Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and details emerged of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s planned visit to Paraguay next month, which may include a stop in the United States. In the Middle East, Israeli strikes targeted the Syrian Ministry of Defense, while the Iranian parliament issued a statement against resuming nuclear talks with the U.S. until unspecified conditions are met.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250718/                                         

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump Threatens Russia With Sanctions; Israel-Syria Clashes Intensify

This week, the United States approved a new weapons package for Ukraine, while representatives from Russian and Ukraine agreed to a new round of prisoner exchanges. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. signed new trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, while EU representatives met with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid simmering trade tensions. In the Middle East, EU and Iranian officials discussed recent sanctions threats against Tehran, while U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to discuss the release of hostages from Hamas.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=27490&action=edit

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Strikes Trade Deals With Japan and Philippines

This week, several countries, including Canada, India, and other major economies, continued to negotiate with the U.S. ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline to make a trade deal, as the European Union and Asian nations including South Korea reached agreements. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with a Chinese delegation in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend bilateral trade negotiations. In the Middle East, several countries have announced they would recognize Palestine as a state in the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in September, while the U.S. imposed additional sanctions targeting Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump reduced the timeline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire from 50 to 10 days, while the Ukrainian parliament passed legislation restoring the independence of anti-corruption bodies after facing international and domestic backlash.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250801/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/




Global Hotspots: U.S. Trade Deadline Takes Center Stage

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Shadin Nassar and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff from the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America to discuss the impacts of Israel’s occupation and settlement enterprise on Palestinian Christians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and how that has contributed to the exodus of the community from the region.

Bridging the Gap: Palestinian Christians - A Dwindling Community in the Holy Land

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose strong economic sanctions against Russia ahead of an expected meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Middle East, Israel’s State Security Cabinet approved a plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy the whole of the Gaza Strip, while the U.S. is set to take over aid operations in the territory. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, while Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire deal. In global trade, reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners went into effect, with threats of additional tariffs remaining on several key partners, including the European Union.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250808/                                          

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump to Meet Putin Next Week; U.S. Global Tariffs Take Effect

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump prepared for his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, holding calls with European leaders, and warning that Russia may face severe consequences if negotiations falter. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China have agreed to extend the deadline for the mutual reimposition of tariffs by another 90 days as negotiations continue. Beijing has insisted the talks must address U.S. removal of advanced tech export controls. In the Middle East, Israel continued preparations to launch a campaign to occupy Gaza while Iran expressed willingness to consider resuming  nuclear negotiations with the U.S. under certain conditions.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250815/
                    
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: All Eyes on Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders to advance a peace deal with Russia, while Russian attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to India for trade talks as bilateral relations thawed, while Trump threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports within the coming week. In the Middle East, Israeli forces captured the outskirts of Gaza City as the campaign to fully occupy the city began, while Iran held its first naval drills since its June war with Israel.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250822/                                             

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Coordinates Security Guarantees for Ukraine with Europe

New Lines Institute focuses on issues at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics.

For more on Newlines Institute, please visit our website: www.newlinesinstitute.org

Global Hotspots: U.S. Weighs Direct Involvement in Israel/Iran Conflict

New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy

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