In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities.
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Luck, Probability, and Risk: What Is Really Under Your Control in Projects

Hello

Thanks for visiting my profile. 

I am an experienced leader in global operations, project management, business transformation, and crisis management. My main focus is implementing innovative global initiatives, capital projects, and product development. I have directed dozens of projects across industries and continents, managing more than $20 billion in global initiatives over the past 25 years.

I am a seasoned board member who has participated in the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance (IBGC) board member program. I was the first Latin American to become chairman of the board of the Project Management Institute globally, where I served for four years. I am also a member of the advisory board of Yera, an Estonian startup dedicated to improving employee performance and engagement through technology and artificial intelligence.

I share my expertise with millions of professionals around the globe through my "5 Minutes Podcast," which I have hosted since 2007 and has reached 12 million views. I've written 16 books on project management, risk and crisis management, and transformation, which have been translated into six languages and sold over half a million copies.

I am a seasoned speaker and have delivered over 250 keynote addresses in 40 countries. My influence on the sector was affirmed when I became the first Latin American to be elected Chairman of the Project Management Institute.

My work as a venture capitalist and entrepreneur in artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data, chatbots, and machine learning resulted in tools and products that have revolutionized how users bring agility and agile management into project management software.

More than two decades ago, I founded Macrosolutions, a global consulting firm with international operations in energy, infrastructure, IT, oil, and finance.

Between 2016 and 2020, I envisioned and led the Brightline Initiative, a Project Management Institute think tank in partnership with leading organizations dedicated to helping executives bridge the expensive, unproductive gap between strategy design and delivery.

Before Brightline, I was Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) Infrastructure and Project Management Group, leading over 1,000 projects and $1.2 billion in humanitarian and development projects. I was also responsible for the first ESG Report in the UN System, published in 2015.

I have a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering, an undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, and a master's degree in Industrial Engineering.

Luck, Probability, and Risk: What Is Really Under Your Control in Projects

Ricardo Viana Vargas - 5 Minutes Podcast