In this podcast, Ricardo talks about the importance of what-if analysis in navigating volatile scenarios, such as geopolitical changes or unexpected project disruptions. By anticipating potential challenges—like new taxes, supply chain issues, or key team members leaving—project managers can develop contingency plans to adapt quickly. Ricardo highlights that dismissing unlikely scenarios can be dangerous, as even improbable events can occur. He stresses reducing project lifecycles to minimize exposure to volatility and using what-if scenarios to stay prepared. Ultimately, adaptability and proactive planning are essential for managing projects in uncertain environments.

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#projectchalenges, #VUCA, #uncertainty


Using What-if Analysis to Manage Projects in Extremely Volatile Scenarios

In this week's episode, Ricardo explains the "broken windows" theory, which originated in criminology, and how it applies to project management. The central idea is that minor signs of disorder, when ignored, lead to bigger problems. In projects, accepting delays or failures without correction sends the message that quality and discipline are unimportant, opening the door to widespread carelessness. Therefore, it's crucial to quickly correct violations, maintain organized processes, and set an example of consistency and accountability. It's not about micromanaging, but about demonstrating that attention to detail protects the project. Often, it's not major disasters that destroy it, but the accumulation of minor oversights that undermine trust and results.

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How Many Broken Windows Are You Tolerating in Your Project?

No episódio desta semana, Ricardo explica a teoria das “janelas quebradas”, originada na criminologia, e como ela se aplica ao gerenciamento de projetos. A ideia central é que pequenos sinais de desordem, quando ignorados, levam a problemas maiores. Em projetos, aceitar atrasos ou falhas sem correção transmite a mensagem de que qualidade e disciplina não são importantes, abrindo espaço para descuido generalizado. Por isso, é fundamental corrigir rapidamente violações, manter processos organizados e dar exemplo de consistência e responsabilidade. Não se trata de micro gerenciar, mas de mostrar que atenção aos detalhes protege o projeto. Muitas vezes não são grandes desastres que o destroem, mas o acúmulo de pequenas negligências que comprometem a confiança e os resultados.

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Quantas Janelas Quebradas Você Tolera no Seu Projeto?

In this week's episode, Ricardo questions whether artificial intelligence (AI) actually reduces project risks or creates new ones. While it helps predict delays, identify flaws, and minimize errors, AI can create invisible risks, such as data bias, which distorts results, and "blind trust," when professionals accept predictions without critical analysis. Another risk is technological dependence: if the tool fails or disappears, the project could stall. There are also ethical and legal questions about who is responsible for AI's misguided decisions. Vargas emphasizes that AI is neither a villain nor an absolute solution. It should be seen as an ally, but always with human oversight, contingency plans, and clear accountability from managers.

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AI: Reducing Risks or Creating New Challenges?

No episódio desta semana, Ricardo questiona se a inteligência artificial (IA) realmente reduz riscos em projetos ou se também cria novos. Embora ajude a prever atrasos, identificar falhas e minimizar erros, a IA pode gerar riscos invisíveis, como viés nos dados, que distorce resultados, e a “confiança cega”, quando profissionais aceitam previsões sem análise crítica. Outro risco é a dependência tecnológica: se a ferramenta falhar ou desaparecer, o projeto pode parar. Há ainda questões éticas e legais sobre quem responde por decisões equivocadas da IA. Vargas reforça que a IA não é vilã nem solução absoluta. Ela deve ser vista como aliada, mas sempre com supervisão humana, planos de contingência e responsabilidade clara dos gestores.

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IA: Reduzindo Riscos ou Criando Novos Desafios?

In this episode, Ricardo questions whether Agile is still sufficient in the face of the speed of artificial intelligence. Created in 2001, the Agile Manifesto introduced short iterations and continuous learning to address the unpredictability of software development. However, today, tools become obsolete in days, raising questions about the relevance of 2- to 4-week cycles or a quarterly backlog. Vargas doesn't criticize Agile—on the contrary, he recognizes its essential role for organizations in dealing with volatility. The point is to reflect on how to apply it intelligently in the face of the rapidity of AI: smaller microcycles? More discipline? An "Agile 2.0" that includes governance, ethics, and social responsibility? The challenge is adapting to the current intensity of change.

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Is Agile Still Enough in the Face of AI’s Speed?

Neste episódio, Ricardo questiona se o Ágil ainda é suficiente diante da velocidade da inteligência artificial. Criado em 2001, o Manifesto Ágil trouxe interações curtas e aprendizado contínuo para enfrentar a imprevisibilidade do desenvolvimento de software. Porém, hoje, ferramentas tornam-se obsoletas em dias, levantando dúvidas sobre a relevância de ciclos de 2 a 4 semanas ou de um backlog trimestral. Vargas não critica o Ágil — ao contrário, reconhece seu papel essencial para organizações lidarem com volatilidade. O ponto é refletir sobre como aplicá-lo de forma inteligente frente à rapidez da IA: microciclos menores? Mais disciplina? Um “Ágil 2.0” que inclua governança, ética e responsabilidade social? O desafio é adaptar-se à intensidade atual das mudanças.

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Agile ainda é suficiente frente à velocidade da IA?

In this episode, Ricardo introduces the concept of nanoprojects: ultra-short, highly focused initiatives lasting just a few days, designed to generate value quickly. Unlike megaprojects, which require months or years, nanoprojects respond to the need for speed and adaptation in a fast-paced world. Examples include testing a marketing channel in five days, redesigning hospital processes in a week, or running rapid pilots in the public sector. Their advantages include low risk, rapid learning, and greater team engagement, as results are quickly seen. However, they require a well-defined scope, discipline, and attention to quality. Ricardo emphasizes that they complement traditional models, helping to reduce uncertainty and stimulating innovation in short cycles.

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The Mega Power of Nano Projects

Neste episódio, Ricardo apresenta o conceito de nano projetos, iniciativas ultracurtas, com foco extremo e duração de poucos dias, criadas para gerar valor rapidamente. Diferente dos megaprojetos, que exigem meses ou anos, os nano projetos respondem à necessidade de velocidade e adaptação em um mundo acelerado. Exemplos incluem testar um canal de marketing em cinco dias, redesenhar processos hospitalares em uma semana ou executar pilotos rápidos no setor público. Suas vantagens são: baixo risco, aprendizado rápido e maior engajamento da equipe, já que os resultados aparecem rapidamente. Contudo, exigem escopo bem definido, disciplina e atenção à qualidade. Ricardo destaca que eles complementam os modelos tradicionais, ajudando a reduzir incertezas e estimulando a inovação em ciclos curtos.

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O Mega Poder dos Nano Projetos

In this episode, Ricardo announces the release of the second global research on AI in project management, co-authored with Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez. Compared to their first study two years ago, AI has moved from experimentation to mainstream adoption. The 2025 report, based on insights from 870 professionals in 97 countries, shows that AI familiarity has doubled, and over two-thirds now use AI tools daily. Nearly half of organizations report cost reductions, and 25% achieved over $250,000 ROI. The greatest benefits appear in scaling, risk management, and forecasting. Barriers have shifted from technical to cultural and ethical. By 2028, 42% of organizations expect AI copilots to manage most projects. AI won’t replace humans but enhance leadership and decision-making. Download the free report at pmairevolution.com.

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The Future Has Arrived: The Second Global Research on AI in Project Management

Neste episódio, Ricardo anuncia o lançamento da segunda pesquisa global sobre IA em gerenciamento de projetos, em coautoria com Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez. Em comparação com o primeiro estudo, realizado há dois anos, a IA passou da experimentação para a adoção generalizada. O relatório de 2025, baseado em insights de 870 profissionais em 97 países, mostra que a familiaridade com IA dobrou e mais de dois terços agora usam ferramentas de IA diariamente. Quase metade das organizações relatam reduções de custos e 25% alcançaram um ROI superior a US$ 250.000. Os maiores benefícios aparecem em escala, gerenciamento de riscos e previsão. As barreiras deixaram de ser técnicas e passaram a ser culturais e éticas. Até 2028, 42% das organizações esperam que copilotos de IA gerenciem a maioria dos projetos. A IA não substituirá os humanos, mas aprimorará a liderança e a tomada de decisões. Baixe o relatório gratuito em pmairevolution.com.

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O Futuro Chegou: A Segunda Pesquisa Global sobre IA em Projetos

Hello

Thanks for visiting my profile. 

I am an experienced leader in global operations, project management, business transformation, and crisis management. My main focus is implementing innovative global initiatives, capital projects, and product development. I have directed dozens of projects across industries and continents, managing more than $20 billion in global initiatives over the past 25 years.

I am a seasoned board member who has participated in the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance (IBGC) board member program. I was the first Latin American to become chairman of the board of the Project Management Institute globally, where I served for four years. I am also a member of the advisory board of Yera, an Estonian startup dedicated to improving employee performance and engagement through technology and artificial intelligence.

I share my expertise with millions of professionals around the globe through my "5 Minutes Podcast," which I have hosted since 2007 and has reached 12 million views. I've written 16 books on project management, risk and crisis management, and transformation, which have been translated into six languages and sold over half a million copies.

I am a seasoned speaker and have delivered over 250 keynote addresses in 40 countries. My influence on the sector was affirmed when I became the first Latin American to be elected Chairman of the Project Management Institute.

My work as a venture capitalist and entrepreneur in artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data, chatbots, and machine learning resulted in tools and products that have revolutionized how users bring agility and agile management into project management software.

More than two decades ago, I founded Macrosolutions, a global consulting firm with international operations in energy, infrastructure, IT, oil, and finance.

Between 2016 and 2020, I envisioned and led the Brightline Initiative, a Project Management Institute think tank in partnership with leading organizations dedicated to helping executives bridge the expensive, unproductive gap between strategy design and delivery.

Before Brightline, I was Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) Infrastructure and Project Management Group, leading over 1,000 projects and $1.2 billion in humanitarian and development projects. I was also responsible for the first ESG Report in the UN System, published in 2015.

I have a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering, an undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, and a master's degree in Industrial Engineering.

Using What-if Analysis to Manage Projects in Extremely Volatile Scenarios

Ricardo Viana Vargas - 5 Minutes Podcast

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