IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES
A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT

To address rising domestic prices for rice, India banned exports of non-basmati rice on July 20, 2023—a move many feared would drive global prices even higher. Since then, these worries have been realized: Thailand’s benchmark price for rice has increased 14 percent, Viet Nam’s rice prices are up 22 percent, and India’s white rice prices are up 12 percent.

To prevent exporters from undermining its ban, India instituted a surcharge of 20 percent on exports of parboiled rice and a minimum sales price for basmati rice in August. India’s actions have had repercussions around the world as domestic consumers struggle with higher prices and rice importers seek alternative suppliers. Some markets have experienced cases of panic buying (the United States and Canada), additional export restrictions (such as export licensing requirements in Myanmar), and price controls (retail price caps in the Philippines).

At an August meeting of ASEAN countries, leaders committed to maintain an unimpeded flow of agricultural products and refrain from using “unjustified” trade barriers. Meanwhile, a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific has threatened to cut the rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices sharply higher. This webinar will provide a brief update on the global rice situation.

Opening Remarks
Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI and Interim Secretary, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)

An Overview of the Global Rice Market
Shirley Mustafa, Economist, Markets and Trade, Social and Economic Development Stream, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

The Impact of El Niño on Rice Markets
Christina Justice, Senior Faculty Specialist, University of Maryland and Coordinator, GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning

The Impact of Export Restrictions in the Rice Market
Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI

The Importance of Rice in Senegal
Fousseini Traoré, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Moderator
Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, USDA and AMIS Chair

More about this seminar: https://www.ifpri.org/event/look-global-rice-markets-export-restrictions-el-nino-and-price-controls
Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

LINKS
Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS): https://www.amis-outlook.org/

A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls

POLICY SEMINAR
Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara
Co-organized by IFPRI, USAID Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
NOV 29, 2023 - 7:30 TO 9:00AM EST

Climate scientists are anticipating an El Niño event in the upcoming boreal winter season (November 2023–February 2024), ending the recent three-year La Niña. In collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, IFPRI is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks. Part 1 will examine the latest scientific outlook for the 2023 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns. Part 2 will focus on El Niño’s impact on global markets, particularly rice markets. Part 3 will provide a sub-national assessment for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia of potentially affected crops and rural populations. Part 4 will present an economywide socioeconomic impact analysis of El Niño at the national level in selected focus countries, including Malawi, using IFPRI’s RIAPA model. The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential hotspots and proposals for policy options, as well as a review of knowledge gaps, points of uncertainty, and priorities for future research and collaboration.

Overview and Global Implications

Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Scientist at University of Maryland (UMD) and NASA, Earth Sciences Division
Karyn Tabor, Agroclimatology Advisor, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 

Global Markets with a Focus on Rice
Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI 
Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI
Vivian Hoffman, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Sub-National Implications with a Focus on Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia
Liangzhi You, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI
Liz Ogutu, Policy Analyst, IFPRI

Socioeconomic Analysis for Malawi
James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), IFPRI
Joachim De Weerdt, Senior Research Fellow / Malawi Country Program Leader, IFPRI
Andrew Jamali, Research Manager, National Planning Commission, Malawi

Moderator
Channing Arndt, Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI

Links
Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations (FAO): https://www.fao.org/home/en
Latin America And The Caribbean: Food Security And Agrifood Trade Website: https://lac.ifpri.info/
La Seguridad Alimentaria Y El Comercio Agroalimentario En América Latina Y El Caribe: https://www.fao.org/documents/card/es/c/cc8592es

More about this seminar: https://www.ifpri.org/event/implications-el-ni%C3%B1o-202324-africa-south-sahara
Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. Established in 1975, IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 50 countries. It is a research center of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development.

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