The Fed held rates steady at its January meeting but laid some groundwork towards pulling back its restrictive policy stance later this year. When do we expect to see lower rates? How much could they fall? Nationwide's financial market economist Oren Klachkin and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of January's FOMC meeting and discuss their outlook for monetary policy. [NFM-22911AO]

How long could we have to wait for Fed easing?

Ep. 473: FOMC Press Conference Reaction

The U.S. economy and inflation have surprised the bond market in 2024, reversing the rally of 2023. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan explores the implications of this on the UST 10-year yield and the Fed’s rate policy. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

The Bond Market Rally That Has Yet to be Validated

After a very long tightening cycle, the FOMC is poised to lower the fed funds rate this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett share their outlook for when rates could go down and how this could impact investment strategies.[NFM-22911M8]

Where could investors move their money when rates go lower?

富投攻略  3分鐘 讓您成為 股市通  富邦投顧會員網上線! 想要掌握投資先機，快速透析產業，請至富邦投顧會員網 https://fubonresearch.fubon.com/Research/  ……以上內容由109金管投顧新字第029號富邦投顧，證券投資分析人員陶治瑋所提供，本公司與所推介分析之個別有價證券無不當之財務利益關係，本節目資料僅供參考，投資人應獨立判斷，審慎評估並自負投資風險。……  ================================================== 富邦投顧免責聲明 本影音所載資料僅供參考，並不構成要約、招攬、邀請、宣傳、誘使，或任何不論種類或形式之表示、建議或推薦買賣本簡報所述的任何證券，所載資料乃秉持誠信原則所提供，並取自相信為可靠及準確之資料來源，然而，有關內容及看法並未考慮個別投資人之投資目標、財務狀況及特別需求。本影音所載述的意見可隨時予以更改或撤回，恕不另行通知。富邦投顧及任何關係企業等，皆有可能持有簡報中提及的證券。富邦投顧或任何關係企業會提供或嘗試提供投資銀行或其他形式的服務給簡報中提及的公司。富邦投顧保留影音內容之一切著作權，禁止以任何形式之抄襲及轉寄他人。  富邦證券重要聲明 1.	本文件僅為本公司提供之一般參考資料，並非針對投資人之特定需求所作的投資建議，且並未考量投資人個別的財務狀況與需求，故本文件所提供的資訊無法適用於所有投資人，投資人應審慎考量本身之投資風險，並就投資結果自行負責。 2.	本文件不得視為買賣有價證券或其他金融商品的要約或要約之引誘。 3.	投資交易具有一定風險，投資人應先評估本身資金及承受交易風險之能力。  [富邦綜合證券股份有限公司經目的事業主管機關核准之許可證照字號為112年金管證總字第0010號。  台北市仁愛路四段169號3、4樓  0800-073-588]  ====================================================

富投攻略 每日台股行動快訊─美科技股走跌，指數高檔震盪風險增

富投攻略 每日台股行動快訊─美科技股下挫，指數拉回修正風險增

Consumer inflation has been hotter than the Federal Reserve has hoped for - amid resilient spending by consumers and hiring by businesses. Much of the focus has been on the rising costs for services, but higher rents have played a large role, too. What’s driving these trends and what does this mean for potential Fed rate cuts this year? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss inflation trends and provide their analysis of February's hotter-than-expected CPI report. [NFM-22911AO]

The Fed is still waiting for cooler inflation

富投攻略 每日台股行動快訊─多頭氣勢仍在，指數兩萬大關前震盪

At today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed did what was widely expected yet again and kept the Fed Funds target unchanged. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s balancing act between hopeful markets and the reality of economic indicators and what it means for the future of U.S. Treasuries.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Fed Watch: The Waiting Game Continues

With inflation still running hot and consumers still strong, the FOMC held the fed funds rate steady at their March meeting. They also released their new macro and interest rate forecasts. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s head of fixed income Brad Beman analyze the FOMC’s announcement and provide their outlook for the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]

Fed funds rate cuts are still on course for this year

For the market week ended March 22, 2024, DoubleLine’s Samuel Lau and Mark Kimbrough recap a mostly positive week for equities (2:39) and fixed income (4:03) while commodities dipped (6:43). For the Topic of the Week (13:20), Sam and Mark do a deep dive on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell. A quarterly meeting means a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from FOMC members, so after reviewing the rates and changes, if any, Sam runs through the new SEP forecasts, with some notable updates. Mark parses the Fedspeak in recapping Powell’s press conference (20:34), observing that while the SEP forecasts seemed rather hawkish, Powell’s statements seemed on the dovish side.

In their review of Macro Land (7:28) for the week of March 18-22, Sam and Jeff’s coverage includes job data, a preliminary manufacturing PMI print and a Leading Economic Index report that raises more questions on how to read this recession gauge. Looking ahead (29:00), the Good Friday-shortened week of March 25-28 will bring numbers on jobs, home prices and consumer confidence while the PCE print will come out on the holiday of March 29.

Because of the holiday next week, Minutes will be recording Thursday, March 28.

*For more on the topics covered in this episode, check out:
Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility
Episode 58: Hard Look at the Fed’s Rare “Soft Landings”
Episode 21: Excess Reserves
Episode 18: Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility

Monday Morning Minutes

FOMC Fedspeak: Hawkish or Dovish? (E158)

富投攻略 每日台股行動快訊─多方架構未變，台股偏多震盪

What’s driving the higher-than-expected inflation readings? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their analysis of March's CPI data and their outlook on Fed policy. [NFM-22911AO]

Hot inflation could delay rate cuts

Following last week’s “hotter” than expected CPI release, the sole focus for the money and bond markets was to, yet again, dial back their Fed rate cut expectations. Ahead of the May FOMC meeting, this week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan dives into an aspect of Fed policy decision-making that has been flying under the radar: the balance sheet. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Consumer Price Index (CPI): A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): The branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy.

Tapering: A shift in monetary policy by which the Federal Reserve would begin decreasing the amount of bonds it purchases.

Pre-FOMC: A Different Type of Taper

富投攻略 每日台股行動快訊─AI股回神帶動，指數上攻月線反壓

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At today's FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, marking the sixth consecutive time the policymakers decided to take no action on the rate front. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan looks ahead for what investors could expect for the remaining meetings this year.

Basis Points: 1/100th of a percent.

Fed Watch: Push It Back, Push It Back, Way Back

Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss the Fed's decision to keep rates steady in May. Policymakers are still keen to lower interest rates, but the timing and extent of policy easing are somewhat unclear as economic activity remains buoyant and inflation isn’t falling as fast as they hoped. When do we expect to see lower rates and how much easing could occur? [NFM-22911AO]

The Fed's pause just got a little longer

TEK2day Podcast: Technology, Capital Markets, Entrepreneurship, Leadership, Corporate Governance. Check out our content at TEK2day.com

Macro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.

Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

New tracks tagged #FOMC