This time around, Chris discusses the economic, geopolitical and related facts of life we will be dealing with from 2025 onward no matter who wins the upcoming U.S. election.

For example, ever-soaring new deficits, indebtedness, and the ongoing stagflation that all brings will remain our lot in life.

Indeed, as Chris kicks off this discussion, he points out that Fed Chairman Powell was newly selling his "Joliet Jay" schtick at the recent Kansas City Fed-hosted summer picnic, setting us up for anyone who was listening to the central bank deflecting more blame from itself on inflation specifically.

Higher-for-longer will remain the mantra on price inflation and borrowing costs both, notwithstanding the looming rate cuts coming from the Fed on the short end.

You'll also hear Chris discuss the ongoing "Japanification" of China, perhaps THE biggest issue globally that will affect many areas. It's going to muddy up trade, global investment markets, the nascent bull market for commodities, the near-term viability of all this BRICS stuff (that a key subject to come in our Road Map discussion part 3, coming later this month) and a LOT more.

As always, be sure to write chris@nationalinvestor.com with your comments and questions!

A Road Map... For a Road NEVER Travelled! Ep. 2

Google's NotebookLM applied to two Continuous Variation blog posts about Keynes' General Theory

The first source is a summary of the Post-Keynesian economic worldview, outlining five key principles: the importance of quantifiable variables, the centrality of expectations, the investment-driven nature of the economy, markets as sites of governance, and the divergence between microeconomic morals and macroeconomic outcomes. The second source is a table of contents for a series of essays that the author has written about John Maynard Keynes's General Theory, offering a succinct overview of the key ideas explored in each chapter.

Source: https://www.continuousvariation.com/p/general-theory-table-of-contents
Source: https://www.continuousvariation.com/p/the-post-keynesian-worldview-in-five

Deep Dive Podcast: General Theory

Inflation has hit exactly 2% just seventeen times in the Euro Area’s 308-month history. However, it has hovered within a range of 1.5% to 2.4% about 42% of the time and now, inflation has settled back into this desirable territory. A monetary policy that remains tight for too long risks causing inflation to undershoot its target. Speed is of the essence.

More about our speakers and chair:

Mário Centeno is the Governor of Banco de Portugal and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank since July 2020.  He served as President of the Eurogroup and Chair of the Board of Governors of the European Stability Mechanism, and for over four years he was Finance Minister of Portugal. An experienced economist, Mr Centeno has held several positions in Banco de Portugal, where he started his career in 1993. He has a strong academic background with a PhD in Economics, from Harvard University, and has published several academic papers. 

Silvana Tenreyro is Professor in Economics at the London School of Economics. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 2002 and an MSc in Economics from Harvard University in 1999. She is Director and Board Member of the Review of Economic Studies and serves as Associate Editor for the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Journal of Monetary Economics and the Economic Journal. She was an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee from July 2017 to July 2023

It's the economy: A lecture by Mário Centeno, Governor of Banco de Portugal

Most countries left the pandemic recession with record levels of public debt: will this trigger a crisis in the near future and if not how can the debt be managed? After the sovereign debt crisis of just over a decade ago, the countries of the European Union are especially sensitive to the risks, and the European Commission has proposed a redesign of the rules that member countries should follow to keep debt sustainable and enhance growth.

This panel discusses the role, virtues, and limitations of these rules, with one of the architects of the Commission’s proposals, a leading economist from one of the largest bond investors in the world, and two academics with work on the effectiveness of fiscal rules and the problem of sharing risk across EU borders.

More about our speakers and chair:

Marco Buti is Head of Cabinet of Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni who is responsible in the European Commission for economic affairs and taxation. From December 2008 until November 2019, he was Director General for Economic and Financial Affairs at the European Commission.

Gene Frieda is Senior Visiting Fellow at the LSE School of Public Policy. Gene is an executive vice president and global strategist based in London and currently serves as a rotating member of PIMCO's investment committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, he was a partner and global strategist at Moore Capital.

Ethan Ilzetzki is an Associate Professor in Economics at LSE. He is a Fellow in the Centre for Economic Policy Research and an Affiliate of the Centre for Macroeconomics. His research focuses on macroeconomics, international economics, and fiscal policy. Ethan heads the CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the UK and EU economies.

Federica Romei is currently an Associate Professor at Hertford College, Oxford University. Federica's primary fields of research are in monetary economics and international economics. She was previously at the Stockholm School of Economics as an Assistant Professor, a Research Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a Visiting Scholar at the Banco de Espana.

Ricardo A. M. R. Reis is a Portuguese economist and the A. W. Phillips professor of economics at LSE In a 2013 ranking of young economists by Glenn Ellison, and in 2016 he won the Germán Bernácer Prize for top European-born economist researching macroeconomics and finance.

Fiscal rules in the EU: looking forward

In "The Data Economy," Prof. Laura Veldkamp explore the strategic role of data in modern economies, highlighting its impact on prediction, uncertainty reduction, and firm-level decision-making. Drawing on advanced macroeconomic and financial frameworks, they offer insights into how data influences production, pricing, market dynamics, and asset valuation. This episode provides valuable tools for practitioners, researchers, and students, presenting both theoretical foundations and practical applications in understanding the economic value of data and its broader implications.

Prof. Laura Veldkamp is a professor of finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford and has served on the board of the American Finance Association. A fellow of the Econometric Society and the National Bureau of Economic Research, her research examines the impact of data and AI on markets, consumers, and the macroeconomy, with a focus on how these technologies influence economic measurement, financial valuations, and market dynamics.

This podcast is brought to you by Global Management Consultancy. For more information, please visit www.globalmanagementconsultancy.com.

To learn more about our activities, follow us on our social media platforms listed below:

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A. The background music used in this video is the property of its respective developer and is protected by Copyright. Although it is a free version, Business Talk, Global Management Consultancy and Deepak Bhatt do not hold the rights to this music.

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The Future of Data in Economics: Prof. Laura Veldkamp’s Key Insights from 'The Data Economy'

Show from 03/28/25

In this episode of Behind the Markets, host Jeremy Schwartz kicks off with an interview featuring Andreas Kern, CEO of WikiFolio, a unique German social trading platform that enables individuals to publish model portfolios and convert them into exchange-listed products. Kern discusses the recent sharp shift in investor behavior from U.S. equities to German mid-cap stocks, signaling growing confidence in European markets. He attributes this trend not only to valuation opportunities but also to cultural and structural differences in how Europeans and Americans approach risk, especially in relation to pension systems. Popular themes among German investors include defense and AI, with stocks like Rheinmetall and MercadoLibre topping portfolios. Kern also shares his ambition to bring WikiFolio to the U.S., positioning the platform as a democratizing force in asset management.

(15:00) The second half of the episode shifts to macroeconomic strategy with Kevin Flanagan, Sam Rines, and Jeremy discussing the implications of tariffs, interest rates, and fiscal policy. Sam breaks down how tariffs affect U.S. businesses and consumers, while Jeremy highlights Professor Siegel’s concerns that tariffs could hurt capital inflows and raise rates. With “Liberation Day” (April 2) expected to bring clarity on trade policy, the group analyzes market reactions and resilience, suggesting much of the impact may already be priced in. The conversation then broadens to long-term themes: the Fed’s reactionary role, global defense spending surges (especially in Europe), and Trump’s potential tax reforms, including zero taxes for middle-income earners and cracking down on offshore corporate shelters. The episode closes with speculation on how tariffs might serve not just as trade tools but as revenue generators in a shifting economic order.

Guest: Before founding wikifolio, Kern gained more than a decade of experience in the finance and payment industries, leading Paybox Austria GmbH to profitability and co-founding Payolution GmbH, which was later sold to Skrill/Moneybookers. He studied mathematics and computer science, holds a Master of Science in Innovation Management from Johannes Kepler Business School Linz, and is a trained exchange trader for futures and spot markets. 
His vision for wikifolio remains clear: make professional-level trading strategies more accessible, transparent, and rewarding for all investors.

Follow Andreas Kern on X: https://twitter.com/AKE_Wikifolio/
More about Andreas: https://www.wikifolio.com/en/int/about-wikifolio/our-management 

Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
Follow Kevin Flanigan on X: https://x.com/kevinflanaganwt 
Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Trump's Tariff Turmoil Brings Global Portfolio Rotation

Dr. Prachi Mishra, Professor of Economics and Director of the Isaac Center for Public Policy at Ashoka University, provides valuable insights in her research, “India’s Economy: Challenges and Opportunities Amid Global Headwinds.”

Before joining Ashoka University, Prof. Prachi served as Chief of the Systemic Issues Division and Advisor in the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Over the course of her tenure at the IMF in Washington, she held a variety of roles, including in the office of the First Deputy Managing Director.

Between 2018 and 2020, she was Managing Director and India Chief Economist in Global Macro Research at Goldman Sachs. From 2014 to 2017, she served as Specialist Adviser and Head of the Strategic Research Unit at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Earlier, in 2012–13, she worked as Senior Economist in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser in India’s Ministry of Finance and at the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. Dr. Prachi has also contributed to several policy and research bodies. She has served on the Board of CAFRAL (Center for Advanced Financial Research and Learning, an RBI-promoted institution), the External Advisory Council of the Fifteenth Finance Commission of India, and the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee.

She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University and a Master’s degree from the Delhi School of Economics. Her research interests span international economics, macroeconomics, and the Indian economy and financial markets.

This podcast is brought to you by Global Management Consultancy. For more information, please visit www.globalmanagementconsultancy.com.

Disclaimer:

A. The background music used in this video is the property of its respective developer and is protected by Copyright. Although it is a free version, Business Talk, Global Management Consultancy and Deepak Bhatt do not hold the rights to this music.

B. Dr. Prachi Mishra generously shared profound insights from her research, “India’s Economy: Challenges and Opportunities Amid Global Headwinds,” during her appearance on the Business Talk podcast channel. The uploaded video contains copyrighted material; therefore, any modifications to graphics, music, or the presence of the author or host are strictly prohibited.

All content is © 2025. All rights reserved.

Dr. Prachi Mishra explains how global headwinds are shaping the future of India’s economy

Prof. Javier Turen, Assistant Professor of Economics at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile shares key insights from his research, "Lumpy Forecasts: How Strategic Concerns and Consensus Pressure Shape Inflation Predictions."

Professional forecasters revise their inflation forecasts in a lumpy manner - characterized by infrequent but substantial adjustments. This pattern reflects more than just new information; strategic considerations play a critical role. Specifically, forecasters are more likely to revise, and to do so by larger magnitudes, when their views diverge from the consensus.

Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we examine how both lumpiness and peer consensus influence forecast updates. We develop a quantitative model that combines Bayesian belief updating with revision costs and strategic behavior. The model replicates key features observed in survey data, including the lumpiness and apparent overreactions to new information. Importantly, it allows us to extract a "cleansed" measure of forecasters’ true inflation beliefs - distinct from the strategic and mechanical influences that shape reported forecasts.

Dr. Javier earned his PhD in Economics from University College London, and his research interests include Applied Macroeconomics, Information Economics, and Expectation Formation.

This podcast is brought to you by Global Management Consultancy. For more information, please visit www.globalmanagementconsultancy.com.

Disclaimer:

A. The background music used in this video is the property of its respective developer and is protected by Copyright. Although it is a free version, Business Talk, Global Management Consultancy and Deepak Bhatt do not hold the rights to this music.

B. Prof. Javier Turen has generously shared profound insights from his research on "Lumpy Forecasts: How Strategic Concerns and Consensus Pressure Shape Inflation Predictions," during his appearance on the Business Talk podcast channel. The uploaded video contains copyrighted material; therefore, any modifications to graphics, music, or the presence of the author or host are strictly prohibited.

All content is © 2025. All rights reserved.

Why Inflation Forecasts Are Often Wrong: Dr. Javier Turen Explains

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:
•             How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.
•             How higher energy prices could impact growth.
•             What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.

How worried should we be about spiking oil prices?

Fresh out of the studio, Associate Professor Jamus Lim from ESSEC Business School and author of "Asian Economies: History, Institutions and Structures" joined us in a comprehensive exploration of the economic foundations shaping Asia's remarkable rise. Jamus shared his story on how the Asian Financial Crisis sparked his passion for macroeconomics and development. He unpacked the critical yet often overlooked role of geography, history, and institutional frameworks in explaining Asia's immense economic diversity, arguing that abstract economic models fail to capture the real-world complexities driving regional development. Through deep dives into China's demographic transition and export-driven challenges, South Korea's state-led chaebol industrialization model, and Japan's historic shift from deflation to inflation, Jamus demonstrated how colonial legacies and historical persistence continue to shape modern economic structures across the continent. Throughout the conversation, he revealed why China's middle-income trap escape depends on building domestic consumption to absorb its massive manufacturing capacity, explained how institutional solutions that once solved problems can become growth constraints, and argued that understanding Asia's past is essential for navigating its economic future in an increasingly complex global landscape.

"The way that institutions emerge and entrench themselves and become a part of the functioning of an economy and society is because they solve some problems. So they're usually a non-market solution toward solving some problem that the economy, that the market system couldn't necessarily solve. Of course the most prominent example of an institution that solves an. Market problem in the non-market way is a firm, as Ronald Coase, of course very early on, taught us that. When a firm realizes that in some cases when transactions costs are high, you want to internalize things within the firm. That the firm is itself an institution. But these other social political institutions, they also exist to resolve some problem. And once they resolve that problem and they're resolving it adequately, then it becomes really hard to bring about change. So the institution solves a problem. So to be clear, it is better than in the absence of the institution, but it also means that without somehow breaking this institution or having some crisis that leads you to substantially reform the institution, you are going to be stuck at a suboptimal equilibrium." - Jamus Lim, author of "Asian Economies: History, Institutions and Structures"

Episode Highlights: 
[00:00] Quote of the Day by Jamus Lim
[02:27] Introduction: Jamus Lim, Associate Professor in ESSEC Business School and Author of Asian Economies
[04:38] Asian Financial Crisis sparks Jamus' macro economics interest
[07:38] Teaching in Asia reveals regional development contrasts
[09:10] Middle income trap challenges across Asian economies
[10:23] Defining Asia: beyond East Asia stereotypes
[15:10] How Geography and History are overlooked in economic discourse
[17:26] China's transformation: poverty to economic powerhouse
[24:28] Lewis turning point: China's labor transformation
[26:11] Housing boom and excess supply challenges
[29:10] Hukou system creates unequal access issues
[33:30] China shock: WTO entry transforms global manufacturing
[38:27] South Korea's state-led industrialization model success
[44:17] Japan's deflation to inflation transition challenges
[46:32] Structural adjustments in Japanese labor markets
[48:03] Institutional foundations: solving problems creates persistence
[54:04] Academic success vs. real-world policy impact
[55:00] Closing

Profile: Jamus Lim, Author of Asian Economies
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamuslim/

Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format. 

Asian Economies & Why Geography and History Matter More Than Economics Models with Jamus Lim

A weekly podcast dissecting the pulse of business, technology & media in Asia. Hear our host interviewing leading journalists, senior executives, respectable authors & thinkers, entrepreneurs & thought leaders to discuss the most important issues that move and shake the business landscape in the Asia Pacific. The show is originally created and hosted by Bernard Leong.

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree and Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, discuss the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists to inform you what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.

 

Jeremy Schwartz has served as WisdomTree’s Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads the investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset model portfolios. Mr. Schwartz joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding to his responsibilities in February 2007 as Deputy Director of Research and thereafter, from October 2008 to October 2018, as Director of Research and from November 2018 to November 2021 as Global Head of Research. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and in 2022 became his co-author on the 6th edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Mr. Schwartz also is co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper, What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500? He received his B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Mr. Schwartz is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

Welcome to Business Talk, your go-to podcast for the latest trends, insights, and thought-provoking discussions in the business world. Whether you're a business professional, entrepreneur, researcher, or academic, our episodes will challenge you to rethink conventional wisdom and inspire actionable ideas.

Brought to you by Global Management Consultancy, we are committed to driving innovation and excellence in the business community. All content Copyrighted 2024 by Global Management Consultancy.

For more information about our past and upcoming podcasts, please click here:https://www.deepakbbhatt.com/businesstalk

Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care.  It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.

New tracks tagged #Macroeconomics