DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau on the final day of June review the markets for the week of June 26-30 and also provide performance snapshots for the month, second quarter and year-to-date. After bidding farewell to LIBOR*, Jeff and Sam discuss the S&P 500’s performance (3:05), including the big performers and laggards as well as the healthy shot in the arm from AI companies. In their recap of fixed income (8:44), they discuss the Rip Van Winkle effect in regard to 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasuries despite some large fluctuations amid March’s banking crisis. It was a rough half-year for commodities (14:24) while Bitcoin’s performance (up 85%) looms large (16:31).

Over in Macro Land (17:12), quarterly GDP numbers are starting to look stronger than expected while the week also delivered a mixed bag of economic numbers, including prints on home prices, jobless claims, personal income and savings, and the latest PCE. Next week (23:11), which includes the Fourth of July holiday, will deliver the June FOMC meeting minutes and JOLTS numbers, and we’ll see where the manufacturing and services prints land in terms of expansion and contraction.

*If you would like to hear more on the history of LIBOR and why it was shown the door, check out: 
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mmm-2021-mar-week-3/id1556154252?i=1000513939317

Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 122: Midyear Market Review

The Concert Crew talks the first half of 2023 so far. Hear the fellas discuss world events, artificial intelligence music, favorite albums of the year so far, disappointing albums, best tv shows and movies of the year so far, what we are looking forward to in the second half of the year and much more. Also, the Concert Crew reviews new music from Shawn Smith, Chuck Strangers, Smoke DZA, J. Stone, Killer Mike, Gunna and Young Thug…

Concert Crew Podcast - Episode 287: Halftime 2023

NAIOP Southern Nevada held its June program. 
 
The panelist included:
•	Jim Costello, MSCI
 
The program was moderated by Owen Sherwood, Vice President ⏐ Commercial Sales ⏐ Fidelity National Title ⏐ National Commercial Sales

This program was sponsored by SR Construction.
 
I hope you enjoy these episodes of Takeaways! 
 
If you enjoy these episodes please subscribe to “Takeaways", rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts.
 
You can also find Takeaways at any of the links below:
Apple Podcast
Soundcloud
Spotify
Stitcher
YouTube

NAIOP Takeaways 36 - June 2023 - Midyear Economic Review

Jeff Mayberry, Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s Macro Asset Allocation team, on July 10, gets graded by Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau on his forecasts for 1H2023 and shares his outlooks for the second half of the year. Jeff Mayberry gets a win on his prediction on federal funds rate hikes (2:44), shared on the Sherman Show at the beginning of the year. The podcast hosts ask him for his take on the June jobs report (5:18), which for the first time in 15 months came in below expectations. “Maybe you’re starting to see some cracks in the labor market,” he says. Mr. Sherman notes that, contrary to market expectations that tightening credit conditions would take a bite out of employment, manufacturers have continued to add jobs while “restocking of the services sector” has added payrolls in that part of the economy. 

One loss on Jeff Mayberry’s midyear scorecard (8:05) was view that the 10-year Treasury yield would not exceed 4% in 1H2023, although he did correctly predict that yield would settle into a higher range. The yield on the two-year Treasury, he thinks, could reach 5% (9:50), although he continues to watch out for labor market deterioration, which would send that yield lower. Mr. Mayberry’s 10% allocation to Treasury bills (11:56) proved a winner. He is keeping on his fixed income allocation for 1H2023 through 2H2023. That deployment forms a barbell between higher-yielding credit and longer-duration Treasuries, the government allocation aimed at offsetting a future widening of credit spreads if the economy enters recession. 

Messrs. Sherman and Lau give Mr. Mayberry a “solid win” for his bullish call on technology stocks (15:50), the best-performing sector of the S&P 500 year-to-date. One losing theme turned out to be his favoring commodities (18:16), which among other headwinds had to contend with China’s failure to re-open its economy. The hosts and guest discuss the macroeconomic outlook for the United States. Amid weakness in manufacturing but resilience in services, and low unemployment (21:18), Jeff Mayberry expects the Fed to keep rates elevated the remainder of 2023. “The Fed doesn't want to say they want a recession,” he says. They don't want to say they need unemployment to rise, they need wages to fall, but they do in order to get inflation back down. That's what they're going to be focused on: wages and the labor market overall.” If the economy remains resilient, he expects the Fed to raise rates in 2H2023.

Mr. Sherman and Mr. Mayberry agree that the resumption of student loan payments (28:11), coming after three years of forbearance, could become a new headwind for the economy. “That's going to hurt consumers, it's going to hurt consumption” in some households, Mr. Mayberry says. However, he describes the odds of recession this year as “very low.” Notwithstanding that outlook, he advises preparing for trouble now by including longer-duration Treasuries in one’s portfolio (35:07). “If we're not getting a recession this year, you still want to have that barbell side, that flight-to-safety side, your long-duration Treasury side to kind of take some of the edge off of the spread-widening that would occur before a recession comes.”

The discussion turns to Mr. Mayberry’s outlook for emerging market and developed market ex-U.S. equities (39:25), cryptocurrency (41:08) and overall asset allocations, including cash and credit (42:23).  As for fixed income, he would “avoid the investment grade credit market at 130 basis points over. I'd rather just go more high yield, more bank loans, more emerging markets, and then Treasuries to give you that duration. So one third in Treasuries, two thirds in credit.” As for U.S. equities (43:21), he does not expect the S&P 500 to match its performance in the first half of the year, and he advises some diversifying away from the market-cap-weighted large-cap index into other areas of the stock market, including mid- and small-cap stocks and value stocks.

The Sherman Show

TSS Episode 143: Mayberry’s Midyear Score Card and 2H2023 Outlook

On this episode with Dan Spiegel, Managing Director of Coldwell Banker Commercial, we discuss that even though there are concerns over the economy and differences in pricing expectations, CRE activity is still happening, while we dig into CBC’s newly published Midyear Outlook.

CBC MidYear Outlook with Dan Spiegel

The Concert Crew talks the first half of 2024 so far. Hear the fellas discuss all the drama behind the current Presidential election, the Kendrick/Drake beef, favorite albums of the year so far, disappointing albums, best tv shows and movies of the year so far, what we are looking forward to in the second half of the year and much more. Also, the Concert Crew reviews new music from Heem BSF, Juicy J, Big Hit, Tems, Common & Pete Rock, Marsha Ambrosius, Eminem and Megan The Stallion…

Concert Crew Podcast - Episode 314: Halftime 2024

How have the economy and financial markets performed in the first six months? Is inflation getting closer to the Fed's two percent goal? And what is the outlook for interest rate cuts and economic growth for the remaining months? Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their perspectives and outlook. [NFM-22911AO]

Midyear review of the economy and financial markets

Hello, are you looking to download the course named: Victoria Washington – The Midyear Money Upgrade?
We are from Coursesbetter.com and are selling Victoria Washington – The Midyear Money Upgrade at the most preferential price, please visit Coursesbetter.com to search for Victoria Washington – The Midyear Money Upgrade and contact to purchase if you need Victoria Washington – The Midyear Money Upgrade.
Purchase link: https://coursesbetter.com/download/victoria-washington-the-midyear-money-upgrade/
Purchase email: isco.coursebetter@gmail.com
Join our community now to get 10% discount:
Discord server (500+ members): bit.ly/courses-better

[CoursesBetter.com] Victoria Washington – The Midyear Money Upgrade Download

Midyear Check Up On Your Retirement (06092024)

Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s Deputy CIO and Sam Lau, DoubleLine’s Asset Allocation Analyst, host a series of podcasts with distinguished guests, giving listeners insight into DoubleLine’s strategies, Portfolio Managers and industry innovators.

Hello Everyone!

Welcome to the introduction episode of Takeaways – the podcast. 

Why am I doing this?

Early 2017, I started sharing my Takeaways from the various (business and real estate) events that I attend throughout the year. It has been incredibly fulfilling.

I started listening to podcasts in 2016 when Malcom Gladwell released Revisionist History. Then I found Seth Godin’s Start Up School. Now I’m a regular – James Altucher is my current favorite.

The other catalyst for me leaping in the podcasting world was enrolling in Seth Godin’s altMBA. It’s a 30 day online workshop all about leveling up. Doing. And demonstrating how capable we are in creating.

So here goes…

I get to attend incredible events all year long as part of my work. There are always Takeaways. I share those on my blog.

I am also blessed to be around remarkable people. There too are always Takeaways to learn. That is what I am sharing on this podcast. Takeaways – Life. Lessons. Learned. explores learning from the wisdom of others.

The show format will be me and a guest. Varied guests. Like a commercial real estate developer, Senior Pastor of a mega church here in Las Vegas, business coach, fraternity executive, police captain, physician and oh-so-many more!

My guests and I will talk, tell stories, and even perform spoken word poetry. The topics covered will include, stature, grief, having valuable conversations, drive vs. ambition, moments of influence. Who knows what else we will learn? Who knows what might be shared that will inspire your next great creation or achievement?

I will share and explore Takeaways that I have learned from the people who have influenced me. At the very least I hope you will be entertained. At the very best you will find value in these Takeaways and will use them to do something meaningfully awesome!

Check it out and be sure to subscribe to Takeaways here, on Apple Podcasts or where else you get your podcasts!

Listen and learn from the Coldwell Banker Commercial brand on this commercial real estate focused podcast.

New tracks tagged #Midyear