Pros of a Recession: Economic adjustment, market corrections, restructuring opportunities, inflation reduction, increased savings, focus on essential needs, long-term planning, financial discipline, entrepreneurship opportunities.

Cons of a Recession: Job losses, reduced consumer demand, business failures, financial instability, decreased investment, increased poverty rate, government program cutbacks, decreased consumer confidence, income inequality, mental health impact.

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Pros  Cons Of Recession

What is the risk of a wage-price spiral? How long will we go on raising interest rates? And are companies’ high profits fuelling inflation?

Our host Katie Ranger discusses these questions with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane on The ECB Podcast.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 23 June 2023 and recorded on 20 June 2023.

In this episode:

1:20 – The ECB’s latest monetary policy decisions
Why are we raising interest rates again and when will we reach the right rate to bring inflation down to our 2% target?

6:56 – Underlying versus headline inflation: what’s the difference?
What do we understand by core, headline and underlying inflation, what role do energy prices play, and which way is inflation going?

15:02 – The risk of a wage-price spiral 
What is the risk of a wage-price spiral, why can it be dangerous and how can we avoid it?

19:44 – The ‘’greedflation’’ phenomenon
Are companies’ widening profit margins driving up inflation – and if so, how will this situation rebalance? 

23:47 – Our guest’s hot tip
Our guest, Philip R. Lane, recommends that our listeners take a look at the 2023 Young Economist Prize finalists’ papers – and tune in to the ECB Forum on Central Banking to hear the winner being announced.

Further reading:

The ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 – Programme
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20230626_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html 

Meet the finalists of the 2023 Young Economist Prize
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/YE_competition/html/index.en.html

Our monetary policy statement at a glance – June 2023
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2023/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Lifeline

Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices?

We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy?

Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024.

In this episode:
01:23 – Inflation right now
How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions?

03:30 – Wages and inflation
How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries?

09:54 – The state of the labour market
Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market?

13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework
Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable?

19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip
Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis.

Further Reading:
The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html 

Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565 

Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html 

Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html 

Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Quo vadis, inflation?

What do Taylor Swift concerts have to do with inflation? When could the digital euro be out? And what will our future euro banknotes look like?

In this special #AskECB episode, our guests answer your questions as we mark The ECB Podcast’s fifth birthday.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 5 October.

In this episode:

01:40 – Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and inflation
Can individual events, like concerts or football tournaments, affect inflation? Guido Wolswijk, who works on monetary policy at the ECB, explains what “funflation” is and how we monitor it.

8:14 – Our 2% target
What happens if one euro area country has an inflation rate higher than 2%? What can the ECB do in such cases?

11:19 – The digital euro
What might the digital euro be like? Erica Ricci, who works in the digital euro team, tells us about the project and its next steps.

14:44 – The digital euro and private payment providers
What could users expect from the digital euro? And would it replace apps like PayPal in the euro area?

17:09 – New euro banknotes
When will the design contest for our future euro banknotes begin? Satu Hietanen from the banknotes team tells us more about the upcoming competition to design the third series of euro banknotes.

Further reading:

Why are stable prices important
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/explainers/tell-me-more/html/stableprices.en.html

Two percent target inflation
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html

What would a digital euro be
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/features/html/index.en.html

Future banknotes
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/html/index.en.html

Explore our banknotes in 3D
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/current/denominations/html/index.en.html#es2-100

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu 

European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

“Swiftflation”, banknotes and the digital euro

Climate change and nature loss are affecting all aspects of our lives, including our economies. What is the latest research telling us, and what is the cost to the economy? Stefania Secola talks to Executive Board member Frank Elderson and Deputy Director General and researcher Livio Stracca about how rising physical risks will affect our economies.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

This episode was recorded before the tragic floods in Spain. 

Published on 1 November.

In this episode:

01:42 Floods, wildfires and droughtsHow do climate change and nature degradation affect our economies? And how high was the economic loss caused by recent extreme weather events ?

05:52 Catastrophe insuranceWhat is it? How many people have it? And what does it mean for our preparedness if disaster were to strike?

06:57 Adapting to a changing economyIt’s clear that our environment is changing. How can we adapt our activities in the face of these changes?

10:05 The Network for Greening the Financial SystemWhat is it, and what does it do? And what does it have to do with central banks and supervisors?

12:32 How do climate change and nature loss affect our economies?How much higher are the expected losses than we previously thought? What’s the latest scientific research telling us?

14:58 Climate messages during the Conference of the Parties (COP) meetingsWhich topics need more attention? And what can we do about it?

19:19 Our guests’ hot tips

Further reading:
The impact of climate change and policies on productivity
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op340~0173592e52.en.pdf

Policy options to reduce the climate insurance protection gap
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.policyoptions_EIOPA~c0adae58b7.en.pdf

Managing climate-related risks
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/managing_mitigating_climatel_risk/html/index.en.html

Living in a world of disappearing nature: physical risk and the implications for financial stability
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op333~1b97e436be.en.pdf

What to do about Europe’s climate insurance gap
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog.230424~4cdc3a38ba.en.html

Failing to plan is planning to fail – why transition planning is essential for banks
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/blog/2024/html/ssm.blog240123~5471c5f63e.en.html

The climate insurance protection gap
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/climate/html/index.en.html

The Network for Greening the Financial System
https://www.ngfs.net/en

Measuring economic losses caused by climate change
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/measuring-economic-losses-caused-climate-change

“Know thyself” – avoiding policy mistakes in light of the prevailing climate science
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2024/html/ssm.sp240412~c256dc168c.en.html

Hothouse Earth by Gill McGuire
https://www.google.com/search?safe=active&sca_esv=0d2d5197637c41d9&rlz=1C1GCEA_enDE1060DE1060&q=hothouse+earth+bill+mcguire&udm=3&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWd8nbOJfsBGGB5IQQO6L3J_86uWOeqwdnV0yaSF-x2jqw-AzvpDFRWNmLZKilfTrfO0pl9dtT9e2t2elzSdzPviJlaPtdkm_zev73LcACj_Zt3WoLu1loKbhUBQ0BvD6_OC9OERnpW26hAPVqw_fTJrjRkQgEJf5SXlzvVj2JhcxyIvER&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2yfiVobGJAxX6_7sIHZckMjAQs6gLegQIExAB&biw=1280&bih=665&dpr=1.5

Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf

Headline statements of the Synthesis Report
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/resources/spm-headline-statements

Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Trailer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9CeECpxtx8

European Central Bank
https://www.ecb.europa.eu

European Banking Supervision
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

The financial fallout from a warming world

Your questions answered: whether it’s about careers at the ECB, how our work affects people and businesses, or how we plan to tackle global challenges, we tackle listeners’ questions in this #AskECB episode of The ECB Podcast.  

Join our host Stefania Secola as she talks to colleagues Eglantine Devaux and Gabriel Glöckler.
The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 February 2025 and recorded on 20 February 2025.

In this episode:
00:36 Your questions answered
You, our listeners, sent us your burning questions on social media. What did you want to know? And who do we have onboard to answer your questions?

01:54 Working at the European Central Bank
What does it take to join the team? How do we nurture and grow talent? And what are the advantages of working in such a diverse environment? 

08:34 Small businesses and consumers 
How do our monetary policy decisions affect small businesses and consumers? How does this relate to our mission? We tackle these questions by looking at the example of a garden centre.

08:54 Stable, predictable changes in prices
How do we keep prices stable? What tools do we have available? And how does our price stability objective help motivate us?

14:47 Facing global economic challenges
What challenges lie ahead? How can we respond to uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and a changing climate? 

16:19 The challenge posed by tariffs
How will tariffs impact our economies, and what about inflation? 

18:27 Europe’s potential
What opportunities can we harness as Europeans? And what could they mean for our economy?

22:43 Communication among central banks worldwide
How do we work together? Are there particular structures in place? And what topics do we discuss?

27:49 Our guests’ hot tips
Eglantine and Gabriel share their hot tips with our listeners. 

Further readings:
ECB vacancies
https://talent.ecb.europa.eu/careers

Graduate programme
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/careers/what-we-offer/graduate/html/index.en.html

Traineeship
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/careers/what-we-offer/traineeship/html/index.en.html

What we offer
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/careers/what-we-offer/benefits/html/index.en.html

IMF - Ask an Economist https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmYAE4wV1YQzDbnDZlNJoqMhIDUQpEPTZ

IMF - Back to Basics https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmYAE4wV1YQyRb6H1_XJWY73HJVdR6oBX

IMF- Analyze This! https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmYAE4wV1YQz_LzOLaKTpDWyH93SNuF7x

IMF - Charts in Motion https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmYAE4wV1YQz6xXWx5eB7uT9zE-4KcmAZ

ECB - Espresso Economics
https://www.youtube.com/@Espresso_Economics  

ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ 

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu 

ECB Banking Supervision
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

You ask, we answer: careers, inflation and cooperation

We need financial literacy to make good financial decisions. But did you know that half of Europeans have low financial literacy levels, and that 60% of them are women?

Our host Stefania Secola talks to Annamaria Lusardi from Stanford University about what financial literacy is, why it matters and how we can improve it, especially among women.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 13 March 2025 and recorded on 7 March 2025.

In this episode:

00:01 Commitments made by central banks
How did central bank Governors commit to improving financial literacy in their respective countries? What are the desired outcomes? 

00:27 Looking at the numbers 
How financially literate are Europeans? How big is the gap between men and women? And what can we do about it?

01:55 Financial literacy defined  
What is financial literacy? How does it relate to financial independence?
 
03:58 Measuring financial literacy
There are three simple questions, known as the “Big Three”, that experts use to measure financial literacy. Can you, our listener, answer them?

05:59 Why central banks care about financial literacy
Why does financial literacy matter for central banks? How does it relate to the effectiveness of monetary policy  and trust in what a central bank does? And how does it affect banking supervision?

10:53 Financial knowledge in Europe
Why is financial literacy in Europe so low? What can we do to increase the overall level of financial literacy among Europeans? 

12:30 When to start addressing financial literacy
When is the best time to improve people’s financial literacy? Is it limited to schools or are there also other teachable moments?

15:50 The gender gap in financial literacy
Why is there this gender gap and why is it a problem? What can we do to make sure that half the population isn’t left behind?

20:14 The role of fintech
Does fintech complement financial literacy? What risks do gender differences in digital literacy pose when it comes to using fintech?

22:26 The road ahead
Central banks made five commitments to improve financial literacy. What are these commitments?

24:50 Financial literacy question: answer revealed 
We answer the first “Big Three” question. Listen and see whether you chose the correct answer!

25:45 Our guest’s hot tip
Annamaria shares her hot tip with our listeners. 

Further reading: 

Annamaria Lusardi’s research
https://www.annamarialusardi.com/research/

ECB International Women’s Day Event 2025
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250307_intl_womens_day.en.html

The ECB Blog: The gender gap at work is closing – but slowly
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250307~85fd774bd3.en.html

The “Big Three” and “Big Five”
https://gflec.org/education/questions-that-indicate-financial-literacy/

Chart: Gender gap in financial literacy is pervasive, incl. the young, well educated and high income
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvVzgcXCFBw&t=222s

ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ 

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu 

ECB Banking Supervision
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Mind the gap: gender and financial literacy

Will AI take our jobs? Does AI boost economic productivity? Is it a choice of going green or going digital?

Our host Paul Gordon talks to ECB colleagues António Dias da Silva, Guzmán González-Torres Fernández and Miles Parker to find out what AI means for the economy, especially for productivity, job prospects and energy supply.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 9 April 2025 and recorded on 3 April 2025.

In this episode:
00:55 Is AI replacing jobs?
Can AI ever replace jobs in journalism or film-making? Will AI be our next podcast host?

02:14 Is AI a job changer? 
How are new technologies changing our jobs? 

04:00 Age, education and gender
Who uses AI and how do people feel about it? Does AI usage differ based on age, education and gender?

06:57 Sectors with the highest AI usage
Which sectors use AI the most? What’s behind the different attitudes towards AI in different areas of the economy?

09:00 Corporate usage of AI
What do companies need to effectively use AI? 

11:02 How does AI affect productivity?
How can AI be put to good use? To what extent can Europe’s economy grow with current AI usage? Is the world ready for AI?

13:29 The role of policymakers 
How can policymakers make it easier for companies to use AI? 

15:10 AI and energy consumption
How much energy does AI need? How much energy does ChatGPT use for one search? Will energy demand go up or down?

17:15 Go green or go digital? 
Do we need to choose or does AI allow both? How could AI help the green transition? 

19:10 Obstacles
What are the roadblocks to the green and digital transitions? What investment is needed to make these transitions a success? What else needs to be done? 

21:50 Our guests’ hot tips
António, Guzmán and Miles share their hot tips with our listeners. 

Further reading:
The ECB Blog: AI adoption and employment prospects
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250321~6af1337b6b.en.html 

The ECB Blog: AI versus green: clash of the transitions?
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250325~ed12b0ff35.en.html 

The ECB Blog: AI can boost productivity – if firms use it
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250328~60c0a587f7.en.html 

Hot tip from António: Tech-focused podcast Babbage by The Economist https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/babbage 

Hot tip from Guzmán: The ECB recent conference on “The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges”
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250401_transformative_power_of_ai.en.html 

Hot tip from Miles: International Energy Agency website
https://www.iea.org/ 

ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ 

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu 

ECB Banking Supervision
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

AI: economic game changer or job taker?

We live in an increasingly uncertain world. But what are the economic and financial implications of such turbulent times? What does it mean for Europe’s banking and non-bank sectors, companies, households, and government finances? And how can Europe navigate such volatility?

Our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. 

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 22 May 2025 and recorded on 16 May 2025.

In this episode: 
01:50 Geopolitical developments and global financial imbalances
How did markets react to the high level of uncertainty?

05:10 Safe havens
What are safe havens? What happened to US government bonds?

09:08 Europe’s reaction
Can Europe afford the increased spending in security and defense? What happens to other structural challenges? 

13:18 Potential unexpected consequences
What positive benefits can defence spending bring? Can it boost growth? What are the solutions to instabilities that might bring?

16:33 Our guest’s hot tip
John shares his hot tip with our listeners.

Further readings: 
Financial Stability Review, May 2025 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html
 
Our guest’s hot tip: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein 
https://www.amazon.de/-/en/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Trade, tensions, tariffs... and a whole world of uncertainty

How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal?

In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025.

In this episode:
01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%.
What was the motivation behind the decision? 

04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process?
What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account?

06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections
Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios?

08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach 
Why do we follow this approach? 

09:50 Strategy review 
How can we make sure our strategy is up to date? 

12:02 High-level uncertainty
How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy?

13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to? 

16:53 Our guest’s hot tip
Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip.


Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html 
Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem"
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/ 
ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ 
European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu 
ECB Banking Supervision
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era

The European Central Bank Podcast – bringing you insights into the world of economics and central banking. 

Our hosts Paul Gordon and Stefania Secola talk to experts about the topics and trends that matter to the eurozone economy today.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

New tracks tagged #PriceStability