Show from 02/02/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's discussion with a look at the latest jobs report. The Prof says the plunge in hours reported is only ever seen in recession times and stresses the importance of further research. The Prof says there is increased concern about the banks again but it appears to be an isolated incident. (10:16) Jeremy continues his conversation with Neil to talk about the Professor's comments on the current economy. Neil states that the severe weather is the cause for low hours this week and there should be an increase moving forward. Jeremey asks Neil what could be causing mass dissatisfaction for the economy among US citizens. Jeff joins the discussion to discuss the bond market and global economics. Neil comments on what the 5 to 7 year trend on productivity might be. The group gives their opinion on Small-Caps, commercial real-estate and bank lending, as well as bio tech and international markets.   

Guests: Jeff has been one of Wall Street’s most influential macro-analysts over the last quarter-century. His process assisted clients in navigating both the up and downside as well as the inherent risks associated with this business. As a member of Institutional Investor’s Hall of Fame, Jeff has helped legitimize technical analysis by employing a disciplined process reliant on data, history, and statistics, while discounting the narrative-based approach that remains so popular on Wall Street. His dedication to the business, unquenchable passion for markets and history creates a foundation that offers the flexibility to profit and protect. Jeff is known for his pragmatism and willingness to express both bullish and bearish views.

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta, As Head of Economic Research, leads our macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out of consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation and housing.

Learn more about Jeff at: https://www.renmac.com/jeff-degraaf/

Learn more about Neil at: https://www.renmac.com/neil-dutta/

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-degraaf-cmt-cfa           

Follow Neil on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/dutta-neil

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jeff & Neil

Show from 02/09/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off by talking about the light market week. The Prof notes that next week will be much bigger following the release of many important reports. He is confident that if the Fed continues to see the data slowing, they will lower rates. The Prof goes into detail on the tech market, the excitement around AI and how it has been trending recently. (9:59) Daniel joins the conversation with Jeremy to discuss dividends in this AI driven world. Jeremy asks Daniel about historical dividend by-backs and pivotal moments that caused people to turn away from them. Daniel talks about growth versus dividends. He explains how harvested capital gains are not the same as dividends. Jeremy asks Daniel about what types of yields he prefers to see in the markets. Daniel mentions geopolitics, his opinion on investing worldwide and his disapproval for government intervention in by-backs.

Guest: Daniel Peris, Ph.D., CFA oversees dividend-focused portfolios for a major US asset manager. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history. 

Learn more about Daniel at: https://strategicdividendinvestor.com/about-the-author/
Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @HistoryInvestor

Behind the Markets Podcast: Daniel Peris

Show from 02/16/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's episode discussing the big data on inflation. The Prof gets into detail on the reports, giving us an indepth look at the current market. The two also talk about the explosive moves in Small-Caps. (7:47) Jeremy is joined by Chris to talk about banks and the current situation in America. Chris talks about whether he would prefer to be net long or net short. The two discuss their opinions on big banking crisis issues from the past. Chris talks about the politics behind solving the banking problems and its troubled history. Jeremy brings up where Chris would rate banks in America and what issues they currently have today. Chris also deep dives into mortgages, the current home market, as well as the index he’s created and the services he provides. 

Guest: Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and writer who lives in New York. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. Christopher is the author of several books, is contributing editor at National Mortgage News, and edits The Institutional Risk Analyst. He appears in a variety of other publications and media. Chris is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA and is a Senior Advisor at J.V.B. Financial Group in New York.

Learn more about Chris at: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Follow Chris on X(Twitter): @rcwhalen

Behind the Markets Podcast: Chris Whalen

Show from 02/23/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel jump right in to talk about the blow out week for tech. The Prof touches base on the job markets decrease and the mention of rate cuts by the Fed. Nvidia brought the entire tech stock back up this week with their demand for semiconductors. The Prof does not think that this is a bubble and that the evaluation of Nvidia is correct. (9:35) Jeremy is joined this week by Charles, CIO of Syz Group. The two continue by discussing the rise in tech in comparison to past tech bubbles. Jeremy asks Charles about the ESG mentality and if it needs to change. Charles gives his opinion on the Russia/Ukraine situation and how it may play out over the next few years. Jeremy dives into the sentiment of investing in Chinese stocks. Charles also discusses the state of currency around the world and bitcoin. 

Guest: Charles-Henry Monchau joined Bank Syz from FlowBank, where he was Chief Investment Officer and Chief Commercial Officer. Prior to this, he had been CIO of Al Mal Capital (Dubai Investments), Head of the Asset Allocation Team for the EMEA region at Deutsche Bank and held various C-level positions in Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. Charles-Henry has an Executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in Finance from HEC Geneva. He is also a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charter-holder.

Learn more about Charles at: https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news/bank-syz-appoints-chief-investment-officer

Follow Charles on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096

Behind the Markets Podcast: Charles-Henry Monchau

The U.S. economy and inflation have surprised the bond market in 2024, reversing the rally of 2023. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan explores the implications of this on the UST 10-year yield and the Fed’s rate policy. 

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

The Bond Market Rally That Has Yet to be Validated

Show from 03/01/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin with an old saying “make the trend your friend”. The Prof gives us a detailed look at this week's market data. He continues talking about the interview he listened to of Austan Goolsbee. (11:41) Jeremy is joined by Jared as they discuss his book and current opinions on today's market. Jared goes into detail about his book on personal financing and why he decided to write about a stress free balanced approach rather than extreme suggestions. Jared emphasizes the fun of making more money instead of cutting expenses. He covers many topics from the housing market to car purchases and how it affects personal finances. Jared also covers student loans, saving and investing, holding onto gold and why bitcoin doesn’t work with his model.

Guest: Jared Dillian is a writer, author, DJ, and speaker. His newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture, music and sex. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries.

Learn more about Jared at: https://www.jareddillian.com/

Follow Jared on X(Twitter): @dailydirtnap

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jared Dillian

With rate cuts now being the primary focus of the markets, the conversation has revolved around when such a move could occur and what the path would ultimately look like. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the rate cutting cycle that occurred in 1995/1996 and how it parallels the current market environment.

Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.

Is the Fed Going to Party Like it's 1995?

Show from 03/08/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by discussing this week's exciting market moves. The Prof says this week’s employment report is very good, revising the shocking report from January. He continues by diving into the Nvidia stock and his 10 year prediction confirmation. (11:17) Art joins Jeremy to discuss everything oil and energy. He begins by talking about energy blindness and energies overall underrepresentation in economic importance. Jeremy asks about natural gas, its excess production and Europe's involvement. The two discuss the Bakken break-even, if technology will increase production and drilling wells too close together. Art also talks about renewables and policies we are exploring that might not be the best. 

Guest: Art Berman is an energy consultant with 40 years in petroleum geology and a degree in Middle Eastern history. His comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, an expert witness, and a keynote speaker. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations.

Learn more about Art at: https://www.artberman.com

Follow Art on X(Twitter): @aeberman12

Behind the Markets Podcast: Art Berman

Show from 03/15/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dig in this week on the most current market information, starting off by talking about the CPI and PPI outcomes. The Prof states the market seems to have bottomed out and is not going lower. Tom and Professor Seigel agree that the commercial real estate market has really suffered. (13:31) Jeremy continues on with Tom who gives us a breakdown of what Ready Capital is all about. Tom talks through a normal transaction cycle and explains bridge financing. He comments on how interest rates have impacted the commercial real estate market. Jeremy asks about commercial mortgage REITs and the discounts people are seeing. Tom also gives us more details on how their SBA loans work and what pressures he sees in the banking community. 

Guest: Thomas Capasse serves as Chairman of our board of directors, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Capasse is also a Principal and co-founder of Ready Capital’s external manager, Waterfall Asset Management, LLC. Prior to founding our Manager, Mr. Capasse managed the principal finance groups at Greenwich Capital from 1995 until 1997, Nomura Securities from 1997 until 2001, and Macquarie Securities from 2001 until 2004. Mr. Capasse has significant and long standing experience in the securitization market as a founding member of Merrill Lynch’s ABS Group (1983—1994) with a focus on MBS transactions (including the initial Subprime Mortgage and Manufactured Housing ABS) and experience in many other ABS sectors. Mr. Capasse began his career as a fixed income analyst at Dean Witter and Bank of Boston. Mr. Capasse received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Bowdoin College in 1979.

Learn more about Thomas at: https://readycapital.com/professionals/thomas-capasse/

Follow Thomas on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-capasse-6470782

Behind the Markets Podcast: Thomas Capasse

At today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed did what was widely expected yet again and kept the Fed Funds target unchanged. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s balancing act between hopeful markets and the reality of economic indicators and what it means for the future of U.S. Treasuries.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Fed Watch: The Waiting Game Continues

Show from 03/22/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week's market and Powels dovish announcement. The Prof states that the Fed believes trends are decreasing however he feels the economy is still moving along nicely. He notes that deflationary forces have begun to ease up. David joins to give his market opinion alongside the Prof as the two discuss their opposing views. (23:42) David continues with Jeremy to talk about how he forecasts the market with his business. Jeremy asks David about consumer sales and how it’s affecting some of the luxury brands. David touches on topics like the employment report, and recent comments from Bullard. He gives his case on why he loves the Japanese Market. David also talks about India as another alternative market to China. 

Guest: David is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. During this time, he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about David at: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Follow David on X(Twitter): @EconguyRosie

Behind the Markets Podcast: David Rosenburg

Behind the Markets Podcast: David Rosenberg

Show from 03/29/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday weekend with positive reflections on the market. Inflation numbers came out as expected. The Prof notes a surprise rise in personal spending and a decline in the housing prices. (7:20) Dan joins Jeremy and Chris Gannatti to discuss where we are in the current tech cycle. The group talks about the Metaverse, AI development and collaborations between Google and Apple. Jeremy asks if they think there will be competition in the infrastructure as time goes on. The three discuss the potential benefits companies get by investing in Nvidia. Dan and Chris also comment on overseas risks involved with tech and lack of demand from Asia. 

Guest: Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Learn more about Dan at: https://www.wedbush.com/analysts/daniel-ives/

Follow Dan on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8

Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe

Follow him on x(Twitter): @CGannatti

Behind the Markets Podcast: Dan Ives

Show from 04/05/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time. 

Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis

Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Behind the Markets Podcast: Peter Berezin

The first three months and change of 2024 has brought with it a rather noteworthy shift in bond market sentiment. With Fed policy decision-making remaining data dependent for the foreseeable future, this week on the Basis Points podcast  Kevin Flanagan discusses why investors should consider utilizing the time-tested barbell strategy to navigate not only the current setting, but more importantly, what potentially lies ahead.

Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent  

Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index : The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or "the Agg" is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.

How to Navigate the Ever-changing Bond Landscape: The Barbell

Show from 04/12/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off this week's episode by discussing a potential attack by Iran on Israel,  inflation panic and moving markets. The Prof continues on to pinpoint which shift in the market led to the inflation panic. He suspects quarter one will come ahead of current expectations. (12:06) Jeremy is joined by Aaron as the two talk about the current AI moment and the opportunities it presents. He discusses cyber security and how AI technology can protect from hackers. Jeremy asks about Team 8 and the model they have created. Aaron talks about the intersection of AI and geopolitics and its effects on Team 8. Aaron comments on Europe's regulations surrounding AI. Aaron also discusses the cloud, the Linux hack and the LoanDepot attack.       

Guest: Aaron Dubin is the VP of Strategy & Business Research at Team8, where he is responsible for business research at the company and foundry level, in addition to targeted business development, and thought leadership. Previously, Aaron led early-stage strategic cyber investing in New York at Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments (PSI) team. Prior to that, Aaron was an Investment Associate at Innovation Endeavors, Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt’s private VC fund, in both Tel Aviv and New York, while also working as a Teaching Assistant at Cornell Tech in the MBA program. 

Learn more about Aaron at: https://team8.vc/team/aaron-dubin/

Follow Aaron on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/aaron-dubin-0aa42842

Behind the Markets Podcast: Aaron Dubin

Show from 04/19/24


Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel begin the discussion by addressing the latest Federal Reserve's maneuvers regarding interest rates. Professor Siegel offers his insights, suggesting cautious optimism due to the strong job market, despite the Fed's conservative stance on upcoming rate cuts. He details how current economic indicators could lead to adjustments in future monetary policy, emphasizing the dual mandate of the Fed to monitor inflation and employment. (13:15) The conversation shifts to Rob Sluymer, Technical Strategist at RBC Wealth Management. Rob brings a unique perspective on the market, focusing on the S&P 500's potential through the lens of technical analysis and market cycles. He offers detailed forecasts, analyzing how long-term cycles could influence immediate investment opportunities and market trends, emphasizing the necessity for investors to recognize and adapt to these cycles for strategic planning.

Follow Rob on X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/rsluymer?lang=en

Follow Rob on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-sluymer-9a59a4b

Behind the Markets Podcast: Rob Sluymer

Show from 04/26/24

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel dive into this week's market dynamics, starting with a discussion on the unexpectedly low GDP report. Professor Siegel shares his concerns but offers a more optimistic outlook based on detailed analysis of positive economic data indicators, suggesting a better performance in the upcoming quarters. (14:52) Jeremy transitions to guest Jason Hsu of Reliant Global Advisors. The two focus their discussion on the investment landscape in Asia, particularly China and Japan. They assess the valuation of Chinese markets amidst geopolitical tensions. They continue by exploring broader implications for emerging markets, with a comparative analysis of regional investment strategies.

Guest: Jason Hsu is the founder and chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors. Throughout his accomplished career, Jason’s commitment to academic rigor and investor advocacy have led him to research, develop, and bring to market investment strategies that create significant value for investors. At Rayliant, Jason is continuing that commitment by educating investors and offering products to transform the investment ecosystem in Asia and beyond. Prior to his current role, Jason was the co-founder and vice chairman of Research Affiliates.

Learn more about Jason at: https://rayliant.com/team/jason-hsu/

Follow Jason on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jasonchsu

Behind the Markets Podcast: Jason Hsu

At today's FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, marking the sixth consecutive time the policymakers decided to take no action on the rate front. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan looks ahead for what investors could expect for the remaining meetings this year.

Basis Points: 1/100th of a percent.

Fed Watch: Push It Back, Push It Back, Way Back

Show from 05/03/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest economic data and market reactions. Prof. Siegel highlights the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to maintain patience in policy adjustments amidst mixed economic signals, notably the unexpected benefits of subdued wage growth and soft payroll numbers, despite persistent price pressures in certain sectors. (12:08) The conversation then transitions to guests Constance and Samuel, who delve into economic forecasts and the impact of ongoing inflation trends on future Federal Reserve actions. Samuel emphasizes the need to pay attention to businesses rather than only focusing on what The Fed releases. Constance gives great examples of productivity around AI. The group tackles global economic conditions affecting markets today. They discuss energy prices all the way to international manufacturing shifts.

Guests: Hunter holds a BA in Economics and Sociology from New York University, a master's degree from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Certified Business Economist designation. She is an expert in macroeconomic and industry analysis and is recognized for being among the first economists to forecast pivotal economic events, including the impacts of COVID-19 on the US and other global economies, the 2007 real estate and credit crisis, and the 2001 burst of the Dotcom bubble. Hunter joins AIG from KPMG, where she served as a chief economist since 2013 and a member of the growth and strategy leadership team since 2020. Previously, she has served as a deputy chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, where she helped lead the management of over $500 billion in fixed-income assets.

Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed.

Follow Constance on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/constance-l-hunter           

Follow Constance on (X)Twitter: @ConstanceHunter

Follow Samuel on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/samuelerines

Follow Samuel on (X)Twitter: @SamuelRines

Behind the Markets Podcast: Constance & Samuel

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree and Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, discuss the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists to inform you what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.

 

Jeremy Schwartz has served as WisdomTree’s Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads the investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset model portfolios. Mr. Schwartz joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding to his responsibilities in February 2007 as Deputy Director of Research and thereafter, from October 2008 to October 2018, as Director of Research and from November 2018 to November 2021 as Global Head of Research. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and in 2022 became his co-author on the 6th edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Mr. Schwartz also is co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper, What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500? He received his B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Mr. Schwartz is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

Macro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.

Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

New tracks tagged #TheFed