A criação de cenários fascina líderes e decisores, pois está no centro da estratégia dos negócios.

Mas quem realmente pode desenhá-los? Existe um método ou é só para especialistas?

Descubra como funciona na prática e quem deve estar nessa mesa.

#6 - Quem pode desenhar cenários?

Paper Title:
Syria’s Constitutional Declarations and the Remaking of National Identity

Date:
15 April 2025

Publishers: 
LUGARIT + Syrian Anonymous Journalists

Authors: 
Author: Zedoun Alzoubi.  Editor (EN): Nihad Alamiri

Summary:
This article examines how Syria’s post-regime constitutional declarations reshape national identity. It highlights a shift from pan-Arabism to territorial nationalism, the re-emergence of Islamic jurisprudence, and the constitutional recognition of diversity. While offering a new vision, the paper stresses that true identity will emerge through inclusive practice and implementation.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/kAQ4


Syria’s Constitutional Declarations and the Remaking of National Identity

Paper Title:
Sanctions and the Prospects for Stability and Recovery in Post-Conflict Syria

Date:
17 April 2025

Publishers: 
SwissPeace + LUGARIT

Author: 
Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj

Summary:
Multilayered sanctions and widespread overcompliance risk entrenching Syria’s economic fragility and obstructing its post-conflict recovery. This brief – developed by LUGARIT for SwissPeace - calls for a pragmatic shift in international policy—enabling essential services, local governance, and institutional reform—through a phased, risk-managed approach that balances accountability with the urgent need for stabilization and inclusive reconstruction.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/DdEb


Sanctions and the Prospects for Stability and Recovery in Post-Conflict Syria

العنوان 
العقوبات وآفاق الاستقرار والتعافي في سوريا بعد النزاع

تاريخ النشر
١٧ نيسان ٢٠٢٥

الناشر 
SwissPeace + LUGARIT

المؤلف
عمر عبد العزيز الحلاج 

الخلاصة
تُهدد العقوبات - والإفراط في الامتثال لها - الاقتصاد السوري وتعرقل تعافيه بعد سقوط نظام الأسد. يدعو هذا الموجز، الذي أعدته لوغاريت لصالح SwissPeace، إلى تحول عملي في السياسة الدولية، يُمكّن من توفير الخدمات الأساسية، والحوكمة المحلية، والإصلاح المؤسسي، من خلال نهج تدريجي ، يُوازن بين المساءلة والحاجة المُلحة لتحقيق الاستقرار وإعادة الإعمار الشاملة.

الرابط
https://link.lugarit.com/DdEb


العقوبات وآفاق الاستقرار والتعافي في سوريا بعد النزاع

Paper Title:
Baʿshiqa: Local Conflicts, Conflict Resolution and Visions for Peace

Date:
22 April 2025

Publisher: 
LUGARIT

Author: 
Dr. Esther Meininghaus

Summary:
This paper examines conflict in Baʿshiqa, highlighting how the Iraqi education system’s emphasis on religious difference perpetuates discrimination, especially against Yazidis. It calls for inclusive reforms that acknowledge diverse histories, foster shared humanity, and promote equality, justice, and psychosocial support as foundations for sustainable peace and social cohesion.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/pqJ2

Photo: 
KRG President Masoud Barzani meeting with the religious leaders of Kurdistan. Baʿshiqa, Iraq. 16 November 2016.  Photo © Berci Feher / ZUMA Press - via Alamy.


Baʿshiqa: Local Conflicts, Conflict Resolution and Visions for Peace

Paper Title:
Moving Beyond the Legacy of Centralized Power: Multilevel Governance in Syria

Date:
23 April 2025

Publishers: 
LUGARIT + Omran Center for Strategic Studies

Authors: 
Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj + Hassan Masri

Summary:
This paper argues that Syria’s authoritarianism was upheld through systemic strategies of centralization by weakening local and regional governance. It warns against reinstating this model post-conflict and calls for an inclusive approach to reintegrating the territory. Sustainable recovery, the authors contend, hinges on empowering middle and local levels with real authority and institutional capacity.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/Klvn

Photo:
Syrian Parliament House. Damascus, Syria. 15 February 1955.  Photo © Camera Press / Sydney Morning Herald - via Alamy.


Moving Beyond the Legacy of Centralized Power: Multilevel Governance in Syria

Article Title:
Beyond Slogans: Six Principles for Civil Peace in Syria

Date:
01 May 2025

Publishers: 
LUGARIT + The New Arab

Authors: 
Zedoun Al Zoubi (AR) + Nihad Alamiri (EN) + Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj (Editor, EN)

Summary:
This article proposes six principles to guide Syria’s path toward civil peace, emphasizing inclusive citizenship, restorative justice, state legitimacy, and meaningful participation. It calls for rejecting sectarian narratives and engaging all Syrians in rebuilding a shared future—through dialogue, institutional reform, and a renewed social contract grounded in dignity and equality.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/Dhz8

Photo: 
A boy holding a white dove against the ruins of war-torn Homs, Syria. September 2013.  Photo © ART production - via ShutterStock.

Beyond Slogans: Six Principles for Civil Peace in Syria

Paper Title:
The Perils of Omission: What Syria’s Constitutional Declaration Fails to Say

Date:
12 May 2025

Publisher: 
LUGARIT

Authors: 
Zedoun Alzoubi (AR), Nihad Alamiri (EN)

Summary:
Issued in March 2025, Syria’s Constitutional Declaration outlines a five-year roadmap but omits key democratic principles, oversight mechanisms, and implementation timelines. This commentary identifies six critical omissions that could undermine the legitimacy and success of the country’s post-conflict political transition.

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/qtoe

Photo:
Overview of the main hall inside the Syrian Parliament.  Photo published in Engineers' Syndicate Magazine in 31 January, 1955.  Photo via AMASyria.


The Perils of Omission: What Syria’s Constitutional Declaration Fails to Say

Paper Title:
Local Administration in Transition: Towards Inclusive and Accountable Local Governance in Syria

Date:
20 May 2025

Publishers: 
SALAR International + LUGARIT

Authors: 
Zedoun Al Zoubi, Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj, Ryan Knox, Obidah Alsayed Ali, Nihad Alamiri

Summary:
Syria’s reunification hinges on adopting flexible and inclusive local governance—not a return to centralization. This policy brief shows how Decree 107, if pragmatically reinterpreted, can bridge the current fragmented mosaic of local administration models with formal government structures, enhance accountability and stability, and foster a legitimate, resilient post-conflict transition. 

Link:
https://link.lugarit.com/HeiX

Photo: 
Marota City, Damascus — once envisioned as a model for local government financing, now stands as a stark reminder of the costs of centralized planning imposed on communities. Built on expropriated land, it embodies the disconnect between state-driven visions and local realities. 24 April 2025.  Photo © Jadd Hallaj / LUGARIT.


Local Administration in Transition: Towards Inclusive and Accountable Local Governance in Syria

العنوان 
الإدارة المحلية في المرحلة الانتقالية : نحو حوكمة محلية تشاركية ومسؤولة في سوريا

تاريخ النشر
٢٠ أيار ٢٠٢٥

الناشر 
SALAR International + LUGARIT

المؤلفون
زيدون الزعبي ، عمر عبد العزيز الحلاج ، رايان نوكس ، عبيدة السيد علي

الخلاصة
يعتمد توحيد سوريا على تبني حوكمة محلية تشاركية، لا على العودة إلى المركزية. يوضح هذا الموجز كيف يُمكن للمرسوم ١٠٧، إذا أُعيد تفسيره وطُبّق عمليًا، أن يربط النماذج الحالية المُجزأة للإدارة المحلية مع هياكل الدولة، وأن يُعزز المساءلة والاستقرار وشرعية العملية الانتقالية السياسية في البلاد.

الرابط
https://link.lugarit.com/HeiX

الصورة
ماروتا سيتي، دمشق - التي كانت تُعتبر في السابق نموذجًا لتمويل الحكومات المحلية، تُمثل الآن تذكيرًا صارخًا بتكاليف التخطيط المركزي المفروض على المجتمعات المحلية. بُنيت على أراضٍ مُصادرة، وهي تُجسد الفجوة بين الرؤى الحكومية والواقع المحلي. ٢٤ أبريل ٢٠٢٥. الصورة © جاد حلاج / لوغاريت.


الإدارة المحلية في المرحلة الانتقالية : نحو حوكمة محلية تشاركية ومسؤولة في سوريا

LUGARIT is a small think tank active in international development.

New tracks tagged #Thinktank