In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Bryan Donohoe, Partner and Co-head of Ares US Real Estate. Bryan breaks down the world of debt markets, lending, and originations. We break down past market disruptions, CRE fundamentals, and the structural changes in the CRE debt markets.

*This episode was recorded prior to the December 2023 Fed meeting.

Episode Notes:
- Background (1:00)
- Where are the debt markets today? (6:32)
- Is there optimism for CRE? (10:36)
- Geographies and property types positioned for success (12:01)
- Appetite for office? (16:06)
- Market outlook (20:15)
- What does Ares do best? (30:49)
- The onset of a new credit cycle (31:30)

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Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out

237. Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out

While the market was watching CPI numbers, jobless claims, and retail sales this week, the Trepp team was digging into the ‘extend and pretend’ narrative and signs of distress hiding in the lodging sector. In this episode, we dig into the data behind these themes, give a deep dive into the current office environment, and also share stories across the commercial property types. Tune in.

Episode Notes:
- Economic update: CPI, retail sales (0:23)
- Extend and pretend narrative (4:55)
- Hidden lodging distress? Maturities (15:39)
- Hotel sale (21:13)
- Multifamily stories (26:12)
- Retail news (29:31)
- Industrial sale (35:01)
- Office restructure and loan modification (36:11)
- Shoutouts (43:53)


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243. Extend &… Pretend, Profit or Peril? Office Environment; Lodging Maturities; Property News

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down office valuation stories and the idea that despite positive retailer earnings reports, malls may not be out of the woods yet. We also cover several multifamily transaction headlines, and news for the retail, lodging, and industrial sectors. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:
- Economic update: Fed minutes, jobless claims, AI (0:23)
- New office transaction in Seattle (4:11)
- Atlanta office story (8:45)
- Chicago office value decline (13:24)
- Sublease story (15:17)
- Malls not out of the woods? (18:26)
- Retail property sales (23:59)
- Multifamily transactions (26:25)
- Lodging (30:26)
- Industrial sale (32:45)
- Shoutouts (33:53)

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Office Valuations, Malls Not out of the Woods?, AI Question Marks for CRE

244. Office Valuations, Malls Not out of the Woods?, AI Question Marks for CRE

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down PCE data, Macy's store closure news and the exposure in CRE, and Trepp's latest figures for CMBS delinquencies. Across property types, we review stories about loans heading to special servicing, property valuation reductions, and discounted payoffs. We also share a review of REIT earnings. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Macy's store closures (4:50)
- CMBS delinquency report (9:35)
- REIT earnings (13:38)
- Office crabgrass (19:04)
- Multifamily sales (28:27)
- Retail news (30:56)
- Lodging (37:44)
- Industrial and self-storage (44:32)
- Shoutouts (46:27)

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245. Leaping Through Data – Macy’s, Malls, Delinquency Report, & Discounted Payoffs

This week, we've had no lack of news including ADP, JOLTS, NYCB’s $1 billion-plus capital injection, and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony. In this episode, we break down what it all means for CRE, dive into CMBS loan losses, and share stories on apartment sales, office crabgrass, and retail green shoots. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- CMBS loan losses (8:10)
- Not all class b/c offices are created equal (11:59)
- Office crabgrass (16:20)
- Property valuations (21:25)
- Multifamily sales (28:03)
- Retail green shoots (35:40)
- Shoutouts (41:11)


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246. Market Moves: Powell's Testimony, S&P 500's Continued Climb, Apartment Sales & Loan Losses

246. Market Moves: Powell's Testimony, S&P 500's Continued Climb, Apartment Sales, & Loan Losses

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the economic headlines along with the news of Family Dollar closing 1,000 stores. We also dig into retail and multifamily transactions, crab grass + a potential mixed-green for office, and more in lodging and industrial. Tune in now.

Episode Notes:
- Economic update (0:23)
- Dollar Tree closures/ Family Dollar news (2:22)
- Cash-in mall refi (10:32)
- Retail transactions (15:01)
- Office news (16:44)
- Multifamily sales and financing (30:43)
- Lodging news (36:31)
- Industrial (44:22)
- Shoutouts (47:58)



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247. Warm Inflation, Cool Retail Sales, & Family Dollar Stores Being Put on Ice

The U.S. employment data has been significantly overstated since 2022. The economy has not generated more full-time jobs for native Americans with all the reported increases either non-existent (later adjusted out of the data), part-time, or non-native Americans (importantly non-documented in America). The Fed is likely throwing in the towel, albeit slowly, on its higher interest rate policy (motivators include the commercial real estate crisis, growing banking issues, and government selling of $7 Trillion in Treasury debt this next year).

Ep. 113 - Commercial Real Estate Crisis Worsens, Burgeoning U.S. Debt Sales – Inflation on the Way!

This week, we got another inflation reading that – leading up to it – had market participants in a "what if" mode, wondering what would happen if the number came in higher, lower, or in-line with expectations. In this week's episode, we break down this changing narrative, we also talk about Blackstone's $10 billion multifamily acquisition, and what appeared to be a $2.00/square foot office sale in St. Louis... We also dig into green shoots and crabgrass for retail, lodging, and industrial. Tune in now.

This episode is sponsored by Marketplace: https://rimarketplace.com/esahotels#utm_source=credirect&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=hospitality

Episode Notes:
- Economic update: CPI report (0:23)
- Blackstone's $10B multifamily purchase (11:27)
- Multifamily loans in special servicing (18:35)
- $2.00 office sale? (23:30)
- Office stories (29:55)
- CRE across the gateway cities (33:49)
- Retail news (36:22)
- Industrial (41:13)
- Lodging news (42:29)
- Shoutouts (46:21)

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252. From 6 to 3, to Higher for Longer, to Later & Less; $2.00/sf Office Sale?; CRE Market Review

Recent data shows serious flaws in reported economic data for employment and inflation. Regardless of data issues, oil and agricultural prices are heading up with an upcoming large impact on even flawed reporting of indices related to inflation. Discuss the wisdom of focusing your investment more on energy, raw materials, metals, and even precious metals as these will likely be favorites with or without a war focused future economy.

Ep. 114 - More Clarity on Higher Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Division of the World (BRIC countries vs. the U.S./Europe)

In this week's episode, we break down if anything will really change for the commercial real estate markets following the Fed’s rate decision. We also dive into retail earnings, and specifically discuss some of the latest news for fast food chains. We share our latest CMBS delinquency rates and discuss what a negative headline means in the very dynamic world of CRE. Then, we run through stories for mixed-use, office, retail, industrial, and multifamily. Tune in now.

Episode Notes: 
- Fed meeting, economic update - impact on CRE (0:23)
- Retail earnings: fast food (9:40)
- CMBS delinquency rates (15:55)
- Office stories (19:00)
- Mixed-use overview (25:01)
- Multifamily stories (36:35)
- Retail headlines (40:12)
- Industrial (42:58)
- Lodging (45:27)
- Shoutouts (46:10)

Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG

Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

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255. Fed Holds Rate, Fast Food Earnings, Mixed-Use Overview, Delinquency Rundown

The Business, Management, and Legal Programs Department at UCLA Extension offers more than 350 courses, conference, and seminars annually and is home to more than 50 professional certificates designed for working professionals and recent college grads who are seeking professional development in the dynamic world of business. Our courses are offered online or in the classroom, making it a flexible option for everyone.

Leveraging Trepp’s market expertise and proprietary data sets, The TreppWire Podcast enables listeners to stay up-to-date on all things commercial real estate, structured finance and banking. 

Featuring Trepp subject matter experts and guests from across the industry, the weekly podcast explores how recent events have impacted both the markets and the daily lives of market participants. 

Questions or comments? Please contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

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