Will the Federal Reserve be successful with its "Immaculate Disinflation"? Or, will we still have to "pay an even higher price" for their use of Weapons of Massive Monetary Destruction in 2020-21?

Recorded on February 3, 2023.

Minor Issues

The Fed's Immaculate Disinflation

Mark talks about the recent price inflation reports, as well as reports of job openings from private sector job placement companies. Inflation was higher than expected and job openings declined. What will the Fed do? People are making painful adjustments—Domino's reported disappointing sales, because their customers are "eating in".

Be sure to follow Minor Issues at https://Mises.org/MinorIssues.

The Fed's "Disinflation" Story Just Flew Out the Window

Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better for investors with stronger than feared growth despite lots of bumps along the way. With high levels of inflation persisting in 2024, uncertainty in the Chinese economy and property sector, continuing geopolitical risks around recession and the lagged impact of rate hikes, the next 12 months could pose some real concerns for markets, yet there are still several reasons for optimism. Join AMP's Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver as he looks at what 2024 may hold and the key implications for investors.

Important information:

This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 15 December 2023. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group.

Episode #106: 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?

We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy?

Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024.

In this episode:
01:23 – Inflation right now
How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions?

03:30 – Wages and inflation
How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries?

09:54 – The state of the labour market
Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market?

13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework
Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable?

19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip
Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis.

Further Reading:
The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html 

Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565 

Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html 

Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html 

Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Lifeline

Quo vadis, inflation?

In this week’s RLA radio interview, host Dennis Tubbergen speaks with Michael Pento. They discuss the current state of the stock market, with Pento predicting a recession and expressing concern about the middle class being hollowed out due to negative interest rates and asset bubbles. Pento criticizes the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut and the push for emergency bailouts for Wall Street. He also mentions the unaffordability of homeownership and the increase in corporate bankruptcies. Pento believes that the middle class has been severely affected by inflation and debt, leading to a massive credit bubble, housing bubble, and equity bubble. He predicts more significant market drops in the future.

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with more than 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised more than $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He produces the weekly podcast “The Mid-Week Reality Check” and is the author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”  

For more information about our guest, Mr. Michael Pento, please visit http://pentoport.com.  For more information about Retirement Lifestyle Advocates, please visit www.RetirementLifestyleAdvocates.com.

2024-08-11 Retirement Lifestyle Advocates Radio w/ Michael Pento

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain takes a deep dive into inflation data from both producer and consumer perspectives. With higher inflation expected later in the decade, how can you take advantage of the lower borrowing costs in 2024 and 2025? Tune in to learn more!

Inflation Impact on Producers and Consumers

The Mises Institute, founded in 1982, is an educational institution devoted to advancing Austrian economics, freedom, and peace in the classical-liberal tradition. Our website offers many thousands of free books and thousands of hours of audio and video, along with the full run of rare journals, biographies, and bibliographies of great economists.

Our mission: We provide the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.

The European Central Bank Podcast – bringing you insights into the world of economics and central banking. 

Our hosts Paul Gordon and Stefania Secola talk to experts about the topics and trends that matter to the eurozone economy today.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

The Simplifying Investing series helps to de-mystify the often-complex world of investing. Whether it’s big or small, we are all invested in something, that's why we're drawing on the knowledge of AMP’s experts to answer the big questions in superannuation, retirement, home loans and beyond.

Podcasts provided by AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group. They contain general advice only and have not considered your personal circumstances. You should consider seeking professional advice before deciding to act on any information in these podcasts.

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