🔥 TLDR: Predictive models dominate modern decision-making - but they consistently fail when faced with emerging risks like pandemics, financial crises, or supply chain shocks.
The problem isn’t bad math, but flawed assumptions: models are built on past data and assume future stability. This blinds them to Black Swan events, systemic interdependencies, and phase transitions in complex systems. Worse, widespread use of similar models can create feedback loops that amplify the very risks they aim to mitigate. Instead of chasing perfect prediction, organisations must prioritise resilience, transparency, and humility in the face of uncertainty.

New tracks tagged #dont chase perfection