Claudia Marchini and Alexander Popov demonstrate that over the last 25 years the EU’s trading partners have become less and less democratic, and they investigate the background of this development and the dynamics at play.

The original post was published on 8 July 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog...

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European Central Bank
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Release date:
8 July 2025

Trading with dictators? A historical review of the EU’s business partners

Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have created uncertainty around the world. But how does the new trade environment affect inflation and the economy? How can central banks adapt? And what is the potential impact on the dominance of the US dollar ? 

In the third episode of our special Sintra series of the ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon talks to London School of Economics Professor Silvana Tenreyro.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 4 July 2025 and recorded on 1 July 2025.

In this episode:
01:30 How is the world economy doing?
What developments are having an impact on our economy today? And what uncertainties are arising from tariffs, trade fragmentation and armed conflicts in different parts of the world?

03:30 Tariffs, trade fragmentation and the economy
How can trade tariffs and fragmentation affect economic growth and inflation in the euro area and beyond?

06:25 How are prices changing?
How are prices changing in different countries? Will tariffs cause prices in the United States to rise, and those in Asia and Europe to fall? And why?

07:55 Lessons for central banks
Given the extremely high level of uncertainty, what lessons from past shocks can central banks apply in the future? Why do we need clearly defined frameworks? And what role do governments play?

09:55 How can governments prepare for potential shocks?
Investing in technologies that are difficult to substitute, diversifying energy sources and creating buffers for critical inputs – why it’s crucial that governments have a strategy to withstand various shocks.

12:05 What is a dominant currency?
When is a currency considered internationally “dominant”? And what dominant currencies have there been in the past?

13:40 Dollar dominance and monetary policy transmission
Does dollar dominance in international trade transactions reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy?

17:30 The future of dollar dominance
How will the dominance of the US dollar develop in the future? Is its role as a primary reserve currency at risk due to the Trump Administration’s policies?

19:10 What keeps you up at night?
What happens to our economy if there is a sudden shortage of a certain input? What impact will AI have if it remains largely unregulated? And what do stablecoins and digital currencies mean for our economy?

21:00 Our guest’s hot tip

Silvana shares her hot tip with our listeners. 

Further readings:

Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro: Dollar dominance and the transmission of monetary policy
https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/dominant_currency.pdf

Sintra Series episode 1/4: Price stability in times of change
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250702_episode110.en.html

Sintra Series episode 2/4: Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250625_episode109.en.html

Silvana’s hot tip
I’m still here/Ainda estou aqui

ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Lifeline

Challenges and opportunities: what lies ahead for the world economy?

Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? What do US tariff threats mean for the ECB? How does the ECB support smaller countries in the Eurosystem? And is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future?

In the last episode of our Sintra series, our host Stefania Secola takes us on a walk around the ECB Forum and gets top experts to answer your questions.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Published on 9 July 2025 and recorded during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra between 30 June and 2 July 2025.

In this episode:
02:05 Defence spending
Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure?

08:08 Tariffs
How do US tariff threats affect the economy? What do they mean for the ECB? And what are the opportunities for Europe?

14:14 Smaller vs. bigger economies in the Eurosystem
Does the ECB prioritise bigger economies over smaller ones? Do smaller countries, such as Slovenia, benefit from the ECB’s monetary policy?

18:55 Artificial intelligence
Is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future?

Further readings: 
Gensler, G., Johnson, S., Panizza, U. and Weder di Mauro, B.: The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment
https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary

The ECB Podcast: AI: economic game changer or job taker?
https://soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank/ai-economic-game-changer-or-job-taker

ECB Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/



Ask the ECB Forum: defence, tariffs and AI – insights from top experts

July 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects. Miles Parker has a closer look.

The original post was published on 13 July 2025.
https://ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250713~631b265757.en.html

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European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Has the heatwave been driving you nuts?

This week, Luke Pearce talks to Francis Addai about the Japanese election, US trade deals with Japan and the EU, and the outcome from the latest ECB policy meeting.

To read news and insights from Barclays Wealth Management, visit  https://www.barclays.co.uk/wealth-management/news-and-insights/investments/

To find out about starting your investment journey with Barclays, visit www.barclays.co.uk/investments

You can also follow us on LinkedIn for more Barclays investment updates - www.linkedin.com/showcase/barclay…tal-investments/

And for Barclays Wealth Management updates - www.linkedin.com/company/barclays…ment-management/

#332 Japanese election, trade deals and the ECB

Jürgen Schaaf explains how stablecoins are reshaping global finance, with the US dollar at the helm. He suggests that without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, he argues that in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.

The original post was published on 28 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250728~e6cb3cf8b5.en.html

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www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/html/index.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Release date:
28 July 2025

From hype to hazard: what stablecoins mean for Europe

Lukas Boeckelmann, Lorenz Emter, Vanessa Gunnella, Karin Klieber and Tajda Spital argue that with trade tensions between China and the United States reaching new heights , Chinese exports may be redirected to the euro area. In a severe scenario, this additional supply and the accompanying lower import prices could bring down euro area inflation by as much as 0.15 percentage points.

The original post was published on 30 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250730~833a22650e.en.html

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www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/html/index.en.html

European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Release date:
30 July 2025

China-US trade tensions could bring more Chinese exports and lower prices to Europe

This post by Niccolò Battistini and Johannes Gareis explores the ripple effects of the ECB’s recent monetary policy on housing affordability, housing sales and households’ home goods consumption.

The original post was published on 31 July 2025.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250731...

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European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Release date:
31 July 2025

The ripple effects of monetary policy on housing and consumption

Sean Markowicz and Sophie Barrington take a deep dive into the US-EU trade agreement, the latest updates from the major central banks, and recent moves in currency markets.

To read news and insights from Barclays Wealth Management, visit  https://www.barclays.co.uk/wealth-management/news-and-insights/investments/

To find out about starting your investment journey with Barclays, visit www.barclays.co.uk/investments

You can also follow us on LinkedIn for more Barclays investment updates - www.linkedin.com/showcase/barclay…tal-investments/

And for Barclays Wealth Management updates - www.linkedin.com/company/barclays…ment-management/

#333 Trade deals, interest rates and the US dollar

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann examine how investment funds adjust their holdings of euro area sovereign debt in comparison with other domestic and international investor groups, including banks, insurance companies and households in times of stress in euro area sovereign bond markets.

The original post was published on 12 August 2025.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250814~86d5171bf2.en.html

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European Central Bank
www.ecb.europa.eu

Release date:
12 August 2025

Who are the “bond vigilantes” on sovereign debt markets?

The ECB Blog offers new insights on the economy and central bank policies based on our data, analysis and research - for the euro area and beyond. For the full texts of our posts, including visuals, please visit our website.

Posts are authored by ECB staff and the audio versions are machine generated. The views expressed are those of the posts' authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.

Welcome to Word on the Street, a weekly podcast from Barclays Bank where our experts help ordinary investors make sense of the latest news and events impacting the world’s financial markets.

Please note that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. All investments can fall as well as rise in value and you can lose some or all of your money. Additionally, this podcast does not constitute an investment recommendation.

The European Central Bank Podcast – bringing you insights into the world of economics and central banking. 

Our hosts Paul Gordon and Stefania Secola talk to experts about the topics and trends that matter to the eurozone economy today.

The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

New tracks tagged #ecb