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Economists' 'rush-to-judgement' vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets...yet. That's where trouble will show up first. Geopolitical conflicts do mot matter to markets for long; world wars do. Spreads between corporate bonds vs treasuries are at an all time low (90bp). There's no stress in the economy...so far; pay attention to credit risk. 20th Anniversary of 2008 Financial Crisis is approaching. Letters from the IRS and a $34-B tax bill; the rich need to pay their "fair share;" defining "fair" (charts). The portability of wealth will be a factor when taxes rise too high. How about Congress spending LESS? Swiss Army to make knife with no blade for UK. Residual Seasonality in economic data: Always skewed by seasonal adjustments.&nbsp; SEG-1: The Lag Effect is Catching up w Economic Data SEG-2: Is Credit Risk the Canary in the Coal Mine? SEG-3: Defining "Fair Share" SEG-4: Knives without Blades; Residual Seasonality Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-rally-as-powell-sparks-a-buying-frenzy/  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Aiming for 5,300," is here:&nbsp; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm2kCMEF0Lo&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "What is Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5d2BCsJQr8&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=3s  -------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #CreditSpreads #StockMarket #FinancialConcerns #EconomicData #MarketPerformance #RecessionExpectations &nbsp;#EconomicPredictions #ShockEffect #MarketPsychology #EonomicHealth #FinancialConfidence #IncomeTaxes #Markets #Money #Investing

5-7-24 Powell Sparks a Buying Frenzy

Jeff Kowal and John White examine what a Monte Carlo Analysis actually means, discuss the retirement magic number – how much is enough, and share insights regarding estate planning, inheritances, and blended families.

The Retirement Clinic-4-20-24 – The Retirement Magic Number

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that for the RBA to get inflation down to 2.5%, unemployment must rise above 4.5% in Australia.

Check out more from Morgans:

Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au
Check out our latest articles: https://morgans.com.au/insights

On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU
On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia
On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Why RBA Rate Cuts Must Wait | Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

Markets ecked out a very small gain on Tuesday, chalking up four days of positive finishes. The buy signal is now firmly in place, and markets are becoming a bit over bought; a pullback at this point, with a bit of a hold, would be helpful. And a rally forward from that level would then continue the bullish trend. There is a lot of buying on deck with the return to stock buybacks and computer trading algorithms primed with about $80-billion in cash to use. There's a lot of potential buying in store over the next month. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO&nbsp; Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFM1UMhDHCk&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/  ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketDecline #MarketPullback #Bullishness #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #InterestRates #20DMA #50DMA #100-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

5-8-24 A Pullback Would Be Nice

The Citi Surprise Index: When economists are disappointed in estimated numbers; that index is now at a low ebb. An uneventful earnings season is wrapping up with fair results; the only companies seeing margins grow are large caps. Markets eke out gains for 4th straight day; the benefits of a market pullback; CTA's have money to spend, plus resumption of stock buy backs. Old Shows &amp; Actors; the great un-bundling of fee has created fees on fees; tipping &amp; charges-per-squirt(!): Budget leakage. Buying Made in USA. AI Golf robots, Robocop, &amp; Skynet; the worst financial mistake some families make: Living on a single paycheck. Balancing the equation with a stay-at-home parent; dealing with the skills gap; the impact of rising childcare costs, and what caused it (gov't. stimulus). Planning for College &amp; Career Choices; five jobs with most potential to produce millionaires. The process of good financial habits. "It's not about how much you make, but how much you save." SEG-1: Analyzing the Citi Surprise Index SEG-2: Surprise Fees are Growing SEG-3: The Worst Financial Mistake Some Families Can Make SEG-4: Five Jobs Most Likely to Produce Millionaires Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UkAPeqpMME&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=1s  ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-rally-as-powell-sparks-a-buying-frenzy/  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Aiming for 5,300," is here:&nbsp; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm2kCMEF0Lo&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "Powell Sparks a Buying Frenzy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPodLCUQ4sw&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=5s  -------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #CitiSurpriseIndex #StockMarket #FinancialConcerns #EconomicData #MarketPerformance #RecessionExpectations #SurpriseFees #WorstFinancialMistakes #FiveJobsProducingMillionaires #EconomicPredictions #CashlessSociety #RisingFees #BusinessCosts #DigitalPayments #ConsumerImpact #EconomicChallenges #UnbundlingFees #AffordabilityIssues #Markets #Money #Investing

5-8-24 The Difference Between the Price You See vs the Price You Pay is Growing

Read Book : new-suryaalonso666.blogspot.com/?txt=B0CMN6CQ59 | Inflation and Deflation: Keynes's Perspective (Grapevine edition) | Inflation and Deflation Keyness Perspective provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic phenomena of inflation and deflation through the lens of the renowned economist John Maynard Keynes In this work Keynes delves into the intricacies of monetary policy examining the causes and consequences of inflation and deflation

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Markets sold-off, rallied, and then ending flat on Wednesday, good enough to chalk up another "green candle day." This just continues to show there are buyers entering the market. Remember, Sellers live higher, Buyers live lower. When Buyers evaporate, prices drop to the next level of pricing at which Buyers are willing to buy. How amazing it has been to see how rapidly the Volatility Index has reversed: It took 15-sessions for the VIX to go from 13 to 21; it took 13-days to go back to 13. What looks like a big spike in volatility, on a longer trend is barely a blip. Concern for a sell-off is past, and the correction is over; buyers are returning, and the greed factor is back.&nbsp; Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO&nbsp; Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJqfWLf9Ntg&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/  ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #CorrectionIsOver #VIX #Bullishness #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #InterestRates #20DMA #50DMA #100-DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

5-9-24 Market Volatility Reverses Again

Is the pig really out of the python? (Excess savings are gone.) Who is still spending, and how? Government spending and consumer credit card usage; buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) plans being used to buy groceries and make ends meet. There are no stats to determine credit risk presented by BNPL companies. Markets sell-off, rally, and end at break-even. The correction is over...for now. No earnings growth outside the Magnificent Seven or top large-cap companies. Companies not rewarded greatly, but brutally punished. Uber, Shopify, Starbucks bellwethers of consumer spending. McDonald's, Five-Guys, inflation impact. Warren Buffett's challenge to find Apple; could he use his cash better? Inflation Report preview: Rents make up 40% of CPI; prices are still high. Why their inflation will be zero. CPI is a black box. Q1 strengths attributed to Seasonal Adjustments. Consumers will start weakening. Sentiment vs Inflation: All the market cares about is government data, regardless of how you feel. High prices will remain, but if unchanged next year, inflation will be zero. Markets are distorted from the fundamentals; valuations still matter.&nbsp; SEG-1: The Pig's NOT Out of the Python SEG-2: Analyzing Earnings: No Growth Outside Magnificent-7 SEG-3: Inflation Report Preview: Impact of Rents on CPI SEG-4: Sentiment vs Inflation: What the markets look at Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9aVqf8un5c&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=1s  ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Finding The Next Apple Using Buffett's Logic" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/finding-the-next-apple-using-buffetts-logic/  "Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-rally-as-powell-sparks-a-buying-frenzy/  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Volatility Reverses Again," is here:&nbsp; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJqfWLf9Ntg&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "The Difference Between the Price You See vs the Price You Pay is Growing" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UkAPeqpMME&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=1s  -------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #StockMarket #FinancialConcerns #EconomicData #MarketPerformance #RecessionExpectations #EarningsGrowth #MagnificentSeven #NegativeEarningsGrowth #TopStocks #TwitterChart #Markets #Money #Investing

5-9-24 Finding the Next Apple Using Buffett's Logic

Brad Holland, Director of Investment Strategy, reviews market performance during April, and outlines recent changes the team has made to Nutmeg portfolios.

About this update: This update was recorded on 7th May 2024. All figures, unless otherwise stated, relate to the month of April 2024.

Source: MacroBond, Nutmeg and Bloomberg. Risk warning: As with all investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your portfolio with Nutmeg can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invest. Past or future performance indicators are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Nutmeg investor update | May 2024

Doug McClure, commercial banking SVP, addresses small business owners' inflation worries and rate stagnation, and what business bankers can do. Uncertainty has prompted some to reevaluate their debt and investment plans, as mid-size companies are seeking tech-forward banking solutions, prioritizing fraud prevention and payment automation.

05/09/2024: Doug McClure - Small businesses concerned about fraud and rate uncertainty

Episode 9 - Rising Input Costs, feat. Special Weather Analyst

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we analyze the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) as banks clamp down on CRE lending across the board. We dissect the latest jobs report and its impact on the market as well as the latest stories across property types. The team also shares their takes on the Met Gala's fashion hits and misses. Tune in now.

Episode Notes: 
- SLOOS commentary (2:44)
- Jobs market and unemployment data (6:35)
- We don't talk about rate hikes... (9:26)
- Major hospital bankruptcy (11:26)
- Office stories (14:06)
- Multifamily headlines (22:54)
- Hotel sales (32:59)
- Retail outlet loan extension (36:34)
- Industrial transaction (38:06)
- Shoutouts (41:56)

Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG

Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

257. Unemployment Uptick, SLOOS Commentary, Met Gala Grumblings

Earnings preview &amp; economic reports: The wisdom of writing a market journal. Will markets produce an 8th day of gains? Current trading strategioes; the animal spirits are shifting. Soupy Sales' 'Send a Dollar;' CEO Neutrality, getting back to the basics of business. Will Social Security last past 2035? There are some surprising, positive notes in the latest SS Trustees' report. Why we run financial plans without SS. Financial Dust-bunnies: Medicare Lunch &amp; Learn; why the big push for Medicare Advantage? (Because that's what pays brokers the most.) Crafting retirement income is an art: Is the 4% Rule too safe? There is no set number: There are too many variables. "The Woods" retirement plan; the Annuities discussion; protecting against emotional decisions. SEG-1: Will Markets Produce an 8th Positive Day? SEG-2: CEO Neutrality &amp; Getting Back to the Basics of Business SEG-3: The Financial Dust-bunnies of Medicare SEG-4: Retirement Income is an Art Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTL3ny5OkwA&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1  ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Finding The Next Apple Using Buffett's Logic" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/finding-the-next-apple-using-buffetts-logic/  "Economic Stagflation – Myth Or Reality?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ "Stock Rally As Powell Sparks A Buying Frenzy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-rally-as-powell-sparks-a-buying-frenzy/  ------- REGISTER for our next Lunch &amp; Learn: "Transitioning to Medicare" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&amp;event_id=49  ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Volatility Reverses Again," is here:&nbsp; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJqfWLf9Ntg&amp;list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&amp;index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "Finding the Next Apple Using Buffett's Logic" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9aVqf8un5c&amp;list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&amp;index=1&amp;t=1s  -------- Get more info &amp; commentary:&nbsp; https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketBullishness #StockMarket #SocialSecurity #MedicareAdvantage #CEONeutrality #FinancialDustBunnies #RetirementIncome #ActuarialBalance #CombinedFunds #Crisis #BenefitsCut #RetirementAge #SocialSecurityCap #CareerPoliticians #Electability #FinancialConditions #PositiveOutlook #Markets #Money #Investing

5-10-24 Will Social Security Last Past 2035?

Show from 05/10/24

Jeremy Schwartz, alongside Elisabeth Reynolds from MIT and Liza Tobin from SESP, discuss the dynamic landscape of U.S. competitiveness in technology and manufacturing. The conversation focuses on the implications of the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are pivotal in revitalizing the U.S. manufacturing sector through substantial governmental investment and policy support. Elisabeth and Liza highlight the strategic need to strengthen supply chains and enhance technological advancements to compete globally, particularly against China’s long standing manufacturing strategies. They emphasize the importance of integrating advanced manufacturing technologies and digital capabilities to sustain economic security and industrial innovation in the U.S.

Guests: Elisabeth Reynolds is a Lecturer and Principal Research Scientist focused on systems of innovation, regional economic development and industrial competitiveness. Her research and practice centers on regional cluster development and innovation systems as well as advanced manufacturing, growing innovative companies to scale, and building innovation capacity in developed and developing countries. She recently served in the Biden Administration at the National Economic Council as Special Assistant to the President for Manufacturing and Economic Development from 2021 to October, 2022. In that capacity, she was engaged in many of the country’s supply chain challenges as well as helped to develop the Biden Administration’s manufacturing agenda and broader industrial strategy including around infrastructure, semiconductors and clean energy. 

Liza Tobin is the senior director of research and analysis for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project. Before joining SCSP, she served on the National Security Council staff as China director, where she led the development of multiple US strategies and policies related to China, including on trade and economics, climate and the environment, military issues, and China’s influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Before serving at the National Security Council, Ms. Tobin worked for more than a decade in various capacities as a China specialist for the US government, including as a senior adviser at the US Indo-Pacific Command and an economic analyst at the CIA, and in various roles in the private sector and academia. She holds an MA in international relations with concentrations in China studies and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center, and a BA in China studies and biblical studies from Gordon College.

Learn more about Elisabeth: https://dusp.mit.edu/people/elisabeth-reynolds

Follow Elisabeth on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/elisabeth-reynolds                  

Learn more about Liza: https://itif.org/person/liza-tobin/

Follow Liza on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/liza-tobin-b9b902200

Behind the Markets Podcast: Liza & Elisabeth

AI-generated song from Suno.AI about how much harder it is for our generation to build wealth in America than it was for our parents

Children of a Different Age

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( 7gmdL ) Inflation: What It Is, Why It's Bad, and How to Fix It by  Steve Forbes,Nathan Lewis,Elizabeth Ames,Carol Monda,Blackstone Publishing ( DuXzG )

 

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VIEW KINDLE 🖊️ Inflation: What It Is, Why It's Bad, and How to Fix It by  Steve Forb

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Hosts Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree and Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, discuss the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists to inform you what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.

 

Jeremy Schwartz has served as WisdomTree’s Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads the investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset model portfolios. Mr. Schwartz joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding to his responsibilities in February 2007 as Deputy Director of Research and thereafter, from October 2008 to October 2018, as Director of Research and from November 2018 to November 2021 as Global Head of Research. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and in 2022 became his co-author on the 6th edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Mr. Schwartz also is co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper, What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500? He received his B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Mr. Schwartz is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

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