Show from 01/03/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel began the first episode of 2025 by reflecting on the market's robust end to 2024 and the economic outlook for the new year. Professor Siegel emphasized the strong but balanced economic data, predicting no changes in Federal Reserve policy for 2025 and cautioning about potential corrections in the market. He discussed key risks, such as narrow market leadership driven by big tech and lingering bond market pressures, while emphasizing the complexities surrounding tariffs and fiscal policy under the new administration. (16:00) Jeremy was then joined by WisdomTree colleagues Sam Rines and Jeff Weniger for an in-depth discussion of 2025 market dynamics. They explored the potential effects of immigration policies on labor markets, the implications of expected tariffs, and evolving geopolitical risks in Europe and Asia. The group highlighted Argentina's surprising economic turnaround, the deflationary pressures stemming from China, and the ongoing investment potential in India and Japan. They also debated Europe's economic resilience, particularly Germany's DAX performance, despite widespread pessimism. The episode concluded with a lighter discussion on consumer trends, including the recent slowdown in fine wine and luxury goods markets.

Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
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Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

A cautious take for 2025's market expectations

Show from 01/10/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel kicked off the episode by discussing the robust job market, the recent surge in inflationary expectations linked to tariffs, and the outlook on interest rates amid real growth concerns. Professor Siegel noted the resilience of commodity prices, the potential for higher long-term rates, and his skepticism about significant rate cuts in 2025, despite positive corporate earnings reports. He also highlighted the impact of rising real rates on stock valuations and his cautious stance on S&P growth projections. (16:08) Jeremy then shifted the conversation to macro strategists Sam Rines and Chris Gennady. Sam emphasized the positive outlook for leisure, hospitality, and business travel sectors, driven by robust consumer demand and stable cost structures. He also discussed the impacts of interest rate movements on financial stocks and energy prices, highlighting the significance of natural gas production in the U.S. Chris provided insights into the latest tech developments, including quantum computing, robotics, and biotech investments by major chipmakers. The discussion concluded with an overview of currency movements, global geopolitical dynamics, and the importance of energy infrastructure, as well as speculation about Canada's potential political and economic shifts.

Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space

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Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investmen

Hot Data, Cold Markets: Navigating the Fed, Economy, and Technology Trends

Show from 01/17/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel open this week’s episode by discussing recent market trends, focusing on strong economic data, positive retail sales, and moderating inflation. The Professor emphasizes that bond yields are likely to climb above 5%, while highlighting Bitcoin’s current momentum and potential developments in the broader crypto market. He concludes with comments on valuations and long-term market expectations. (12:10) Jeremy then welcomes guest Jim Bianco from Bianco Research, who provides insights into the bond market. Bianco agrees with Professor Siegel on rising bond yields and discusses how higher yields may affect stocks. He also explores the implications of a strong U.S. dollar, sticky inflation, and global economic dynamics, including challenges in China and Japan’s monetary policy. Bianco shares his views on managing credit risks, favoring bank loans over corporate bonds, and discusses the potential for perpetual bonds from the U.S. Treasury. The conversation wraps up with a look at opportunities in European equities and crypto’s evolving role in financial systems.

Guest: Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades-long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.

Learn more about Jim at: https://www.biancoresearch.com/about-us/
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Bitcoin, Inflation and the Fed: Bianco's Bets for 2025

Show from 01/24/25

Chris Gannati and Jeff Weniger host this week’s Behind the Markets, sharing insights on the latest market trends. They discuss inflation metrics like CPI and PPI, noting stable progress in controlling inflation, and emphasizing confidence in Federal Reserve policy adjustments. (15:33) Chris and Jeff delve into European markets' performance and shifting investor sentiment, particularly towards Germany and France, driven by improving economic data and valuation opportunities. They also explore currency trends, global investor flows, and the implications of U.S. equity valuations compared to other regions.

Guest: Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Follow Chri Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
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Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

The Professor’s Take on Trump 2.0

For the first time since September, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, holding the Fed Funds target range at 4.25%–4.50%. But is this pause a step toward more rate cuts or the beginning of a more cautious approach? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan shares the key takeaways from the January meeting, the Fed’s recalibrated stance and why the definition of a “neutral” rate remains a moving target.

Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.

Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?

Show from 01/31/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss key market developments this week, covering the Fed meeting, the impact of DeepSeek on AI and chipmakers, and the potential consequences of new tariffs. The Prof notes that while the Fed’s latest move wasn’t highly consequential, the removal of certain inflation-related language raised some market expectations. He also highlights how DeepSeek’s AI advancements could challenge high-end chipmakers like NVIDIA while benefiting AI users and the broader economy. (15:13) Jeremy continues with Jeff Winnegar and Sam Rines, diving into the evolving AI landscape, China’s latest moves in AI with Alibaba’s model, and potential investment opportunities. They also analyze earnings trends, including Meta’s strong margins, Microsoft’s underperformance, and a surprising 31% same-store sales jump for Chili’s. The conversation wraps up with a broader discussion on market rotations and shifting sentiment in Silicon Valley towards Washington.

Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
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Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

AI, Tariffs, and the Fed: Market Shifts and Risks Ahead

President Trump’s second term has reignited economic policy shifts, including tariffs and executive orders, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious on rate cuts. With Treasury yields likely to stay elevated, Kevin Flanagan is joined by Macro Strategist, Sam Rines to discuss why investors should prepare for continued volatility and consider a strategic fixed income approach to navigate the evolving landscape.

Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.

Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead

Show from 02/07/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz opens the show, discussing market trends and economic indicators. Jeremy is then joined by Sonu Varghese from the Carson Group, along with Jeff Weniger, Sam Rines, and Chris Gannatti, for a deep dive into market trends, asset allocation, and economic outlooks. Sonu discusses his positive outlook on the U.S. economy, citing strong labor market fundamentals and productivity growth. The conversation covers key sectors of interest, potential risks from tariffs, and expectations for interest rates. The guests also touch on AI’s impact on productivity and broader market trends shaping investment strategies.

Guest: Sonu has over 15 years of experience in the Asset Management industry. Before joining Carson, he was a Partner and Director of Research at Convex Capital Management where he co-managed portfolios, advised clients and led the research effort, including creating a proprietary leading economic index for 30 countries and systematizing investment processes. Prior to that Sonu worked independently with hedge fund managers and high-net worth individuals to develop quantitative investment models for trading equities, options, ETFs and closed-end funds.

Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Carson Wealth: https://www.carsonwealth.com/
Follow Sonu Varghese on X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese
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Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Super Bowl for Markets: Jobs, Earnings, and Portfolio Diversifiers

Show from 02/14/25

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel reflect on the Eagles' Super Bowl victory and discuss key economic data, including CPI and PPI surprises, the market's reaction to inflation expectations, and the impact of potential tariff negotiations. Siegel notes that while inflation data was hotter than expected, markets found relief in the lower-than-expected PCE components. He also discusses retail sales disappointments, GDP outlook adjustments, and global economic trends. (13:19) Jeremy continues with Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Christopher Gannatti from WisdomTree to break down geopolitical and market trends. The group covers Modi's U.S. visit and tariff negotiations, India's potential for a free trade agreement, the outperformance of China's "Terrific 10" stocks over the "Mag 7," and Europe's investment push into AI. They also touch on macroeconomic themes such as U.S. debt management strategies and shifting global alliances in trade and security.

Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
Follow Chri Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines
Follow Jeff Weiniger on X: https://x.com/JeffWeniger
Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Fly Tariffs Fly: On the Road to Victory?

The Fed just hit pause, again, at the March FOMC meeting, keeping rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid economic uncertainty. With policymakers in “wait and see” mode, this week on Basis Points, Kevin Flanagan breaks down what’s driving the decision and what it means for fixed income investors. 
Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.


Fed Watch: Let’s Just Wait and See

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz, Global CIO at WisdomTree and Wharton finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks for the Long Run, discuss the how and why of market performance with leading economists and market strategists to inform you what’s ahead for the economy and your portfolio.

 

Jeremy Schwartz has served as WisdomTree’s Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads the investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset model portfolios. Mr. Schwartz joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding to his responsibilities in February 2007 as Deputy Director of Research and thereafter, from October 2008 to October 2018, as Director of Research and from November 2018 to November 2021 as Global Head of Research. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and in 2022 became his co-author on the 6th edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Mr. Schwartz also is co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper, What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500? He received his B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Mr. Schwartz is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

Macro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.

Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

New tracks tagged #thefed