Abstract:

Purpose: This paper formalizes long-term trajectories of human civilization as a
scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be
defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in
which human civilization could continue to exist.

Approach: We focus on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which
human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant
future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to
human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical
technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course;
and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home
planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future,
especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe,
technological transformation, and astronomical trajectories appear possible.
Value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether
these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For
some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

http://www.thetechnocracy.com/2018/09/14/ai-abstract-series-ep7-long-term-trajectories-of-human-civilization/

AI Abstract Series Ep7: Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

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AI Abstract Series Ep7: Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

The Technocracy