Name: S4.10: Better know a nuke: net assessment by The Arms Control Poseur
Duration: 29 min 46 s
Description: In the last episode of season 4 of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alex Bollfrass and guest Zuzanna Gwadera reflect on moments from the season and what they reveal about nuclear strategies, global risk dynamics and the path for arms control.

What successes and failures of arms control have shaped the US nuclear strategy over time? In the first episode of season 4 of the Arms Control Poseur podcast, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass discusses historical developments of the American nuclear weapons arsenal with leading experts Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Amy Woolf and Dr Rebecca Gibbons to provide insights into the Cold War arms race, deterrence strategies, and what the future might hold for US nuclear policy. In a historical deep dive, they explore the impact of historical arms control treaties of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), US-Russia treaty compliance in the context of New START and the Treaty of the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) as well as the growing challenges by emerging threats.


Podcast host of the Arms Control Poseur, Dr Alexander Bollfrass, is Head of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control, focusing on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction and related delivery systems, as well as risk reduction and arms control. 


Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins is an American diplomat who served as the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security in the Biden Administration. During the Obama administration, she was the US Department of State's coordinator for threat reduction programs in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation. 


Amy Woolf is a Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Forward Defense practice of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.  She is also a former Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy at the Library of Congress. 


Dr Rebecca Davis Gibbons is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Southern Maine. She previously served as a Fellow and Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs after receiving her PhD from Georgetown University in 2016.   



‘The Arms Control Poseur’ is a podcast series produced by the IISS Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Programme on behalf of the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium. 


S4.E1 Better know a nuke; The United States of America

How has the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics’ nuclear policy evolved into Russia’s current arsenal? How have arms control treaties shaped nuclear stability – or failed to do so? And how can future arms control look like amidst growing global tensions? Dr Alexander Bollfrass and his guests discuss the origins of the Soviet nuclear programme, from the point of Stalin’s push to match US capabilities after the end of World War II to the rapid development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Examining the era of the Cold War, the episode provides a deep-dive into the US-Soviet arms race, resulting in arms control treaties like SALT, the INF Treaty and START.

Dr Alexander Bollfrass is Head of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control, focusing on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction and related delivery systems, as well as risk reduction and arms control. 

Andrey Baklitskiy is a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR. His current research focuses on nuclear risk reduction and nuclear arms control. He holds a specialist diploma (MA equivalent) from the Ural Federal University.

Lydia Wachs is a PhD Candidate in International Relations at Stockholm University. Her PhD research focuses on the Soviet Union's/Russia's role in the global nuclear order, in particular its nuclear nonproliferation policy. 

‘The Arms Control Poseur’ is a podcast series produced by the IISS Strategy, Technology and Arms Control Programme on behalf of the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium. 

We hope you enjoy the episode and please follow, rate, and subscribe to The Arms Control Poseur on the podcast platform of your choice.       

Date of Recording: 30 January 2025 and 31 January 2025 
The Arms Control Poseur is recorded and produced at the IISS in Berlin.    

S4.E2 Better know a nuke: The Soviet Union and Russia

How has the nuclear weapons programme of the United Kingdom evolved from its origins during World War II to its strategic choices during the Cold War? With the current international order in disarray, the United Kingdom has maintained its nuclear arsenal for over 70 years, but its nuclear warheads, missiles, and delivery systems are deeply intertwined with American technology and supply chains. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by Dr Marion Messmer, Dr Daniel Salisbury and Sebastian Brixey-Williams, leading experts on British nuclear policy, arms control and international security. Together, they provide a deep dive into the history, challenges, and the future of the UK’s nuclear weapons programme, from its World War II origins to the challenges of the Cold War and today’s geopolitical uncertainties.

S4.E3 Better know a nuke: The United Kingdom

Since the Cold War, France has charted an independent course in nuclear policy, without relying on external security guarantees. But what makes France’s nuclear strategy different from that of the United States, United Kingdom or Russia? And how does it fit into the European security architecture today? In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Héloïse Fayet, Emmanuelle Maitre and Dr Liviu Horovitz to discuss France’s nuclear programme that began in the shadows of World War II, as French leaders, including Charles de Gaulle, sought to ensure that the country would never again be left vulnerable to invasion or external political pressure. Unlike the UK, which fully integrated its nuclear programme with the United States, France pursued a self-sufficient approach, developing its own warheads, missiles and delivery systems.

S4.E4: Better know a nuke: France

China’s nuclear journey began during the Cold War, when Mao Zedong’s leadership saw nuclear weapons as essential to protecting China’s sovereignty. Initially relying on assistance from the Soviet Union, China quickly accelerated its nuclear programme, conducting its first nuclear test in 1964. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr Tong Zhao and Dr Fiona Cunningham to discuss China’s recent ambitious expansions of its nuclear capabilities. This shift is monitored globally and poses the question why China is moving away from its traditional nuclear posture and what it means for global security?

S4.E5: Better know a nuke: China

Israel is unique among nuclear-armed states as it neither confirms nor denies its nuclear capability. While Israel’s nuclear ambiguity has shaped its strategic posture for decades, it also raises questions about Israel’s nuclear doctrine and how it fits into Middle Eastern security. Unlike other nuclear powers, Israel began exploring nuclear weapons development before the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy expert Dr Or Rabinowitz to provide deep insights into the history, strategy and future of Israel’s nuclear programme.

S4.E6: Better know a nuke: Israel

India’s nuclear weapons programme begins with the pre-independence roots of its nuclear ambitions. While India has continuously emphasised the peaceful aspects of nuclear energy, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia has shaped its dual-use trajectory. The border war with China in 1962, followed by China’s nuclear test in 1964, and the increasing alignment between China and Pakistan, were turning points. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar to explore South Asia’s nuclear stability, the roots of India’s nuclear posture and what the future may hold for arms control in an increasingly multipolar world.

S4.E7: Better know a nuke: India

How did Pakistan become a nuclear power? Between India and China, how does Pakistan manage deterrence in a volatile region with two-nuclear armed neighbours, growing asymmetry, and no effective arms control mechanisms in place? After Pakistan’s nuclear journey began in the 1950s with civilian ambitions, it developed nuclear enrichment capabilities in the early 1980s and conducted first tests in 1998. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Dr Rabia Akhtar and Dr Mansoor Ahmed to discuss the history of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, how its strategic doctrine evolved over time and arms control proposals for the region.

S4.E8: Better know a nuke: Pakistan

With the story of North Korea’s nuclear programme commencing in the 1950s under Kim Il Sung, following the end of the Soviet support and the imbalance of power with South Korea, Pyongyang began to see nuclear weapons not only as a deterrent, but as a necessary tool for regime survival. In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alexander Bollfrass is joined by leading nuclear policy experts Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr Daniel Salisbury and Ankit Panda to deep dive into the closed world of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions – from its Cold War roots to its modern missile arsenal and the collapse of every diplomatic effort to stop its advance. Decades of research, insights shared by intelligence leaks and firsthand accounts explain why North Korea won’t give up its nuclear weapons, what that means for US and South Korean security policy and what challenges arise for arms control on the Korean Peninsula.

S4.E9: Better know a nuke: North Korea

In the last episode of season 4 of The Arms Control Poseur, host Dr Alex Bollfrass and guest Zuzanna Gwadera reflect on moments from the season and what they reveal about nuclear strategies, global risk dynamics and the path for arms control.

S4.10: Better know a nuke: net assessment

About The Arms Control Poseur 

‘The Arms Control Poseur’ is a regular podcast series run by the International Institute for Strategic Studies on behalf of the European Union Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium (EUNPDC) that unpacks the most pressing arms control issues and discusses measures to combat miscalculation, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems and the impact of disruptive technologies. In each episode, the host, William Alberque, will bring in strategists, experts and practitioners from around the world to examine these issues.

The Institutions:
https://www.iiss.org/research/strategy-technology-and-arms-control/
https://www.nonproliferation.eu/

The Music:
https://b-aubreyfreeman.bandcamp.com/album/immediacy
https://elysiumon37th.bandcamp.com/

S4.10: Better know a nuke: net assessment

The Arms Control Poseur

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